The messages from the South are contradictory in this Presidential primary season.
Edwards dominates the money race in the South. He is #1 in fund raising almost across the South. Dean is #1 in Virginia, largely due to the DC influence. The same DC influence allows Lieberman to pull off #1 in fund raising in Maryland. Lieberman is #1 in Florida fund raising largely on the strength of the large Jewish community there.
But, Edwards strength in Southern fund raising is not matched by his Southern poll results. Nationally he is at just 4%, but in Alabama in an October 5 poll, he rate just 4%, behind every top six candidate but Kerry. Edwards pulls just 3% in Flordia in a November 21 poll. Edwards similarly rated just 3% in Georgia in an October 23 poll.
Edwards is first place by a long margin in his home state of North Carolina with 43% support, according to a September 12 poll, but came behind both Dean and Clark in a September 22 poll of Oklahoma primary voters. The most recent poll from South Carolina, an October 30 poll, put Edwards seven points behind Clark there, in the number two spot with 10% support.
Edwards is, by his voting record, probably the most conservative candidate in the race, although you wouldn't know it from the buzz from the media. And, Edwards is one of the few candidates who can make the claim of being a Southerner not unduly infected by Washingtonitis -- something Clark and Gephardt have thoroughly absorbed.
According to state by state polls, Clark is running best in the South. The word General means a lot South of the Mason-Dixon line, and his Arkansas roots and accent don't hurt either, nor does his pseudo-endorsement from Bill Clinton who helped urge him to get into the race. Clark leads pollls in Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and South Carolina respectively. He is in third in Flordia, and was not last in a September 12 North Carolina poll too early to reflect his momentum and fighting Edward's home state advantage.
But, it is hard to tell if Clark's 3rd place finish in a November 21 Florida poll, the first new Southern poll in three weeks, is a function of Florida's cultural diversity compared to the Deep South, or if this is instead part of his nationwide slump in the polls in the past few weeks.
Still, Clark's dominance is not an open and shut case. Lieberman is #1 in the most recent Florida poll, #2 in Georgia (in a statistical dead heat with Clark), tied for third in Oklahoma, and statistically tied for second place in Alabama. This isn't just name recognition. Lieberman has campaigned as the conservative in the race, even though that isn't entirely true. And Lieberman is also the only effusively religous and anti-porn candidate in the race. There may not be many Jews in the South outside of Florida, but Southern voters sympathize with his somewhat literal minded, moralistic faith.
Dean has the #2 spot in polls in Florida, North Carolina and Oklahoma, in addition to being first in Maryland. Dean does far better than either "Southern candidate" Edwards, or Kerry in Alabama and Georgia. A four percentage point boost would put Dean in the number two spot in South Carolina. Dean boosters point to his stance on gun control and experience as a Governor of a rural state as giving him an edge with Southern voters. Detractors point to Dean's remarks about the Confederate flag that, however well meant, were inept and to what some preceive as his Park Avenue raised, medical doctor's arrogance. Others note Dean's association with civil unions as a barrier in the South.
Gephardt's Missouri base gives him sensitivity to Southern issues, although his Congressional voting record is among the most liberal in the race. He is, of course, first in Missouri, is second in the polls in Alabama and is tied for third in Oklahoma. But, Gephardt's Southern poll standings are not remarkable, although they do exceed Edwards in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and tie him in Oklahoma.
Sharpton is polling surprisingly well in many Southern states, so it isn't clear how the black vote in the South (which makes up the majority of the Democratic primary voters there) will lean. Zogby has 14% of blacks supporting Sharpton and 11% supporting Dean in a November 6 poll which also put Dean first in the South with 13%, followed by a three way tie of Lieberman, Edwards and Sharpton at 8%. This Zogby poll had Clark doing far better in the West than in the South. Braun has not shown similiar success in Southern polls, perhaps because Braun has made a conscious attempt to fit within the "American establishment" in an effort to seem Presidential, while Sharpton has never strayed from attacking that establishment.
We don't have enough polls to really know where the South is going. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia, for example, all remain unpolled. Persausive arguments can be made for most candidates in most states. Clark has commanded endorsements in Texas, but Dean has spent seemingly futile money to organize and advertise in Texas, and Edwards has raised immense sums of money there. Tennessee and West Virginia share many of the hill country values of Missouri, and Lieberman's association with the Gore ticket may mean more in Tennessee than elsewhere. Virginia, influenced as it is by the District of Columbia, might echo Maryland's support of Dean and Lieberman. Clark fared well in Alabama and Georgia which bodes well for him in Mississippi.
Right now, the South is still up for grabs.