Consider this a prelude to a larger edition of my "Following The Polls" series, which has been reduced to a monthly exercise (it will be weekly before long, and then daily as we approach the elections).
The folks at American Research Group have released their monthly series of presidential primary polls for the three confirmed early states: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. This covers both the Democratic and Republican primary rosters.
The results, with some analysis by yours truly, after the jump....
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
IOWA: Clinton 32, Obama 22, Edwards 15, Richardson 7
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Clinton 40, Obama 22, Edwards 10, Richardson 5
SO. CAROLINA: Clinton 41, Obama 19, Edwards 18, Biden 6
MY OBSERVATIONS:
- Well, a few things are very clear. Despite Richardson's entreaties to the contrary, this is a three-candidate race. The top three double up the next-best option in every state.
- Chris Dodd has impressed a lot of people around here (and rightfully so) with his newfound aggression. It is not moving voters...his best performance was in New Hampshire: 3%.
- John Edwards (in the interests of full disclosure, my preferred candidate) is getting into seriously perilous territory. I know the cautionary proviso, Edwards fans: the caucus is notoriously difficult to poll, he was only at single digits this time in 2003, yadda yadda. He is not a little-known freshman senator anymore, either. He was on the ticket in 2004, and he is now a relatively distant third in the state that I would say he needs to win to be viable. Also, I have always been a bit nonplussed by him running third in South Carolina, a state that he scored a critical victory in back in 2004.
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
IOWA: Romney 27, Huckabee 19, Giuliani 16, McCain 14, Thompson 8
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Romney 30, Giuliani 23, McCain 17, Huckabee 7, Thompson 5
SO. CAROLINA: Romney 29, Giuliani 23, McCain 13, Thompson 10, Huckabee 5
MY OBSERVATIONS:
- Is there any reason NOT to refer to Mitt Romney as the front-runner for the Republican nomination? I know his national poll numbers are still fairly anemic, but he will be three-for-three as the campaign heads into the quasi-national primary. How much oxygen will be left for the other contenders?
- Wow...that savior of the conservatives Fred Thompson sure is kicking ass, isn't he? Maybe Kos should stop front-paging his Soviet Union gaffes. After all, he has got Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter nipping at his heels, for chrissakes.
- If you believe polls, and the quasi-conventional wisdom, the two strongest general election candidates may well be Huckabee and McCain. Both of them are polling better than they have in recent memory in the GOP primary. Both are still pretty broke though, which will matter a great deal in the front-loaded primary schedule.
Those are my thoughts. What are yours?