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So I watch the Rasmussen poll to get my poll fix I acquired in the '04 cycle. Even more politcal-junkied out, to overcome the fact that Rasmussen only keeps about the last 10 days worth of numbers up on the web, I've been keeping an Excel spreadsheet of the poll since March 1.
Say what you will about Rasmussen's methods, but I'll just offer up Slate's post-election re-cap on how well each of the major pollsters did:
Rasmussen and SurveyUSA beat most of their human competitors in the battleground states, often by large margins.
With that out of the way, look at today's numbers. Bush's disapproval rating hit the highest point of all year, and his approval number is resting at the year's low!
Yes, this sure is good news, but I think it's even better, and I have pics, data, and analysis on the flip...
So here's my pic so far:
What is interesting here is the trend--and it's in our favor. Bush's approval hasn't been at the 53% mark since Mar 6. Also, the graph clearly indicates a trend. Sure, Bush's numbers go up-and-down, up-and-down, but every time it goes down, it's going lower, and the "bounce" back up is smaller. The exact opposite is true of the disapproval. And today's number signal that this obvious trend is continuing further.
Enough with trying to "stock chart analyze" Bush's approval. To put this in perspective, let me throw out some dates of events so you can have some context of Bush's numbers:
Mar 7 - DOW Closes at highest point in 4 years
Mar 30 - Gas prices hit highest point
Mar 31 - Terri Schiavo dies
Apr 2 - Pope dies
Apr 20 - DOW Closes at lowest for 2005, just above 10,000
Again, you see a focus on money. But if you look at the graph, Bush's approval in this poll isn't connected to the Pope, or Terri Schiavo, or John Bolton. It's tied to Mr. Dow Jones.
Let's have another pic, this one of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over about the same time period (the last 3 months):
Weird, ain't it? See how Bush's disapproval line follows the same track as the DOW? See how Bush's approval rating was highest the day the DOW hit it's highest mark in 4 years?
I guess all the GOoP care about is money after all, and send Dubya's approval up a creek w/o a paddle when stocks tank. If this theory is true, we are in even better shape: Bush's disapproval is higher than it's ever been, yet the DOW is not at it's lowest levels.
Henceforth, if the DOW drops more, Bush will be quacking even faster than he thought at that GOoP luncheon from the Ron Suskind NYT article...
Oh, and I promised data... You can download the spreadsheet I made the Bush graph from here and play this fun game along at home!
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