In 2005, Tim Kaine had it all. His victory over the utterly repulsive Republican candidate, Jerry Kilgore, was a resonating one. He had taken on the worst personal attacks the national GOP had to offer and defeated George Bush's handpicked choice for the governorship. The Democratic Party was beginning its comeback from the depths of 2004 and his election reminded those among us who had fallen into a less than hopeful mood about our chances going forward that the fight was not over yet. He gave the Democratic response to the State of the Union only a few short months later and the future of his career looked bright. And yet somehow, Tuesday, after he had commandeered the Virginia Democrats' recapturing of the state Senate, it was all gone. In two short years, two years that had seen his initial spark turn into a prairie fire of electoral gains for the Democrats, Tim Kaine had seen every door that opened for him, close right before his eyes. He was a man without a home.
Let me try for a second to re-write history post-November 2005. Let's look into the world that Tim Kaine figured to see when he got to where we are now - November 7, 2007. We'll concede that last night's events are just how they eventually turned out. Tim did the same work he did and he got the same results - Virginia Democrats took the state Senate and closed the gap in the House of Delegates. Tim is joined on stage at the victory party by Presidential candidate Mark Warner. Mark is in a good position in the polls and most people think he'll end up in one of the two slots on the Democratic ticket. Across town at the election night headquarters for the Virginia Republicans, Senator and Presidential-hopeful George Allen is playing off the losses as an inevitable cycle of politics in a moderate state such as Virginia. "It shows the independent spirit of the great state of Virginia" Senator Allen said. He didn't see any reason to believe Virginia was trending blue. After all, Virginians had elected him back to the Senate in 2006 by a healthy margin. Governor Kaine is asked if he's planning on leaving the Governor's mansion early to take on Tom Davis, following Senator John Warner's retirement. The Governor declines to comment, giving the cliche line about spending tonight celebrating our victories. However, everyone who knows anything knows that even if he decides to serve out his term as Governor, George Allen's open seat in the 2012 looks mighty appetizing...
But then, Macaca happened. And while Tim was probably overjoyed that it did, leading to the surprising election of Jim Webb to the Senate, he must now look back and realize that it destroyed his political career. Thanks to Macaca, Tim won't be able to challenge for that open Senate seat in 2012 as Jim Webb will most probably be running for re-election. Mark Warner's inclusion in the Senate race was certainly independent of anything George Allen did, but it most definitely still led to an influence upon Governor Kaine. Pre-Macaca, Governor Warner would've made great sense as the candidate to run for John Warner's open seat (or against John Warner) so that Tim could finish out his term and prepare to run for George Allen's open seat. But now, Mark Warner will most likely be the Senator from Virginia until at least 2014. Tim Kaine will have been out of public service for five years by that time. However, assuming Governor Warner does get into the Presidential race for 2016, Kaine would have his first chance to move onto a new office. In 2014. What does Mr. Kaine do between the end of his term in 2009 and 2014? I can't imagine this is how he expected it to go.
I do believe that Timothy M. Kaine is a good man and a good Democrat. I am sure that the hard work he put into our gains in the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates was worth it to thim just to make the Commonwealth a better place in which to live. But if I had my guess, I'd say this is not how it was supposed to be.