John Edwards has a very professional campaign here in Iowa. He has offices all over the state. His supporters have experience and are well represented in our newspaper letters sections every week. They do all the right things, including showing up in the various blogs with the proper message about how John somehow 'won' the night at our JJ dinner last night in Des Moines. Nicely done. But to anyone who was actually there, Senator Edwards' speech was a well presented sideshow. Good Democratic message from a professional campaigner whose support leveled off a long time ago.
Unless you went in specifically to cheer him, John Edwards' speech was hardly the highlight of the night. Hillary's speech created more of a ruckus of course because much of the core party people are supporting her. Her speech itself actually was pretty flat and included a lot of sly maneuvers like intentionally confusing Democrats who criticize her with Republicans. Quite lame I thought considering it is she and her two Bills who keep emploring Democrats not to tear each other down. I hate that politics by irony where you say lets not insult each other as a means of insulting each other.
The place, in terms of the established party was Hillaryland. The floor where all the insiders sat was dominated by her supporters. And yet when Obama hit the stage the night was instantly redefined. There was clearly only one force in that room and in the race that can challenge Hillary for the nomination and it wasn't the campaign of John Edwards. He has some enthusiasm and people who have been with him here since '03. But it is not a movement. Hillary, Edwards and the second tier candidates are competing for the folks who voted Kerry. Almost all the newcomers to the party have come for Barack Obama.
Hillary and Edwards supporters seem annoyed by all these squirrely new folks showing up to support Obama. It's like they aren't very welcome because they're interrupting the story line where we get back at the GOP in '08 apparently because the GOP is going to roll over and die.
But the name of the game folks is electoral politics and the way to win it is with the most voters at the polls. The biggest message last night was not any detail of the different health care plans or who voted for what. There was good substance from everyone, but that wasn't the message to the party. The message was that if the party wants to get to the next stage and blow the doors off the 50-50 electoral split, it's time to say yes to the Obama Democrats. Many weren't Democrats in '04 and unless they nominate Barack Obama most won't be in '08 either.
This has happened in Iowa because this is where the campaign has been. The whole point of Iowa is to see what happens when these candidates run head to head against each other. And what we are seeing is that the infusion of energy that would turn things around in the general election is all in Obama's corner. Everything else is just the Democrats getting farther into their own belly buttons.
It's true that if Obama hadn't arrived it might again be Edwards year. 2004 clearly should have been. But the fact of the matter is that Barack Obama is here and he is drawing people in who have never registered Democrat and in many cases never voted before. They are the force keeping him in the race. They are why he has caught Hillary in Iowa and surpassed Edwards. In spite of Hillary's stature and 'inevitability' and in spite of Edwards name recognition and five year campaign here, Obama has caught them.
If the core Democratic party has the guts and forsight to nominate Barack Obama they will find themselves riding a wave instead of sniping from trenches. It's the biggest opportunity in at least a generation and it was palpable in that room last night.