I do not like to engage in or perpetuate odd theories. But there are
two angles I would keep in mind in terms of how it shakes out tonight, both of which I think could be serious in their impacts --
one of which could favor Dean, one which potentially works against him:
- I think Kucinich's presence, which has mostly gone unnoticed, could be curiously important. (And when I use "curiously" I do intend that as a double-entendre -- the guy is shopping for spouses as he campaigns, yeesh!) Kucinich people, who are avid and unlikely to walk away from their precincts once they realize they do not have viability in all but a handful of uber-liberal university-town areas, could stay and re-cast their support by caucusing for Dean because of the Iraq issue. Actually, Carlos Watson of CNN picked up on this, too; of course, Donna Brazile countered with an equally compelling point, namely that Kucinich re-casters could end up backing Gephardt because of trade. That decision -- to stay, and whose lot to recast yourself with, Dean or Gephardt -- could be pivotal in a tight race, which everyone expects. I mentioned this Kucinich Effect before I left in my predictions to Kenny Baer at ndnblog.org., and I stick by it.
- The factor that could end up hurting Dean is, ironically enough, Gephardt's fading chances. Here's why: If Gephardt's infrastructure delivers people to the precincts but, with a late change of heart coupled with a dose of practicality, decide to get behind Kerry or Edwards, well, that's trouble. Because Kerry and Edwards are doing well on message, and poorly on resources. So Gephardt becomes their unwitting delivery machine.
I want to make another prediction: watch out for Edwards. Repeat:
Watch out for Edwards. I think he has a strong chance to be the surprise late closer in this thing.