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Cross-posted at DraftUdall.Com

In SurveyUSA’s third poll of New Mexico’s 2008 Senate contest, Tom Udall reasserts himself at the front of the pack! The first survey, released on October 8, showed Udall hammering both Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson with considerable double digit margins even though he had not yet decided to enter the race. Udall was not polled in the second SurveyUSA match-up released November 5.

The third SurveyUSA poll was sponsored by KOB-TV and was released this morning. The data, collected between 11/16 - 11/18, shows Udall trouncing the competition following a successful Draft Udall movement that culminated with Udall’s announcement he was planning to run for the Senate seat. Consistent with other polls on the race (including Udall’s own internal numbers and a Research 2000 poll commissioned by DailyKos), today’s data shows Congressman Tom Udall stomping Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez in the primary race for the Democratic nomination.

With 180 days until early voting in New Mexico begins, here are the numbers:

Tom Udall beats Martin Chavez in the Primary: 62%-32%
Udall and Chavez are tied among New Mexico Hispanics but leads by 54 points among white Democrats

In the General Election, Democrat Tom Udall easily beats either Republican while Chavez loses to Republican Pearce and ties with Republican Wilson.

Udall today defeats Wilson by 15 points.
Pearce today defeats Chavez by 10 points.
Wilson and Chavez today tie, 47% for Wilson, 46% for Chavez.

Interestingly, when breaking down the female vote Udall gets 59% against Pearce and earns 61% against female Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson! More from the SurveyUSA poll:

When Pearce is pitted against Udall, whites split. But Udall wins 2:1 among Hispanics. When Wilson is pitted against Udall, whites split. But Udall wins 7:3 among Hispanics. With Udall on the ballot, Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. With Chavez on the ballot against Pearce, Moderates split. With Chavez on the ballet against Wilson, Moderates break 5:4 Democrat.

Head over to our updated ActBlue site and help us to turn New Mexico Blue!

Originally posted to Alex Flores on Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 08:20 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Good roundup, Alex. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    herodotus, Nab

    Something else I found interesting which I posted at New Mexico FBIHOP:

    Among Independents, the only match-up where the Republican does better is Pearce vs Chavez.

  •  Out of all the Udall's running for the US Senate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Land of Enchantment, Nab

    Tom,Mark,and Gordo Smith.

    This Udall(Tom-NM) is far most the strongly favored of winning and becoming Senator- HE is polling above 60% and is 30 points ahead in the Primary against a Conservative Democrat. In the General Election- He is polling above 50% and his 15 points ahead either GOP opponents. Pearce is 20 points behind Heather Wilson in the GOP primary- Pearce has ended his political career since a GOP is going to win the Southern NM-2 US house Seat.

    Gordo- the GOP Udall(OR) is in a competitive re-election campaign against OR State House Speaker Jeff Merkely. Because Gordo has the incumbency advantage- Gordo is favored to win re-election. Gordo is polling below 50% but is 10 points ahead of Merkley.

    Mark(CO)-is the closely watched race- His poll numbers in the General Election is below 50% and is leading his GOP rival by a less than 10% margin.

  •  RSCC - Throw lot's of cash this way (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Land of Enchantment, Nab

    I love the fact that Rethugs are going to be spread so thin.  They might want to consider studying defensive tactics of losing armies for possible strategies in preserving 1 or 2 states (deep south I presume).

    "Constitutional Crisis Forthcoming"

    by egarratt on Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 08:51:25 AM PST

    •  Looking at the US Senate. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Land of Enchantment

      On the Democratic Side- The safe seats are

      Arkansas-Pryor- Cheap State.
      Delaware-Biden- Cheap State.
      Durbin- Illinios- Expensive State
      Harkin- Iowa- Cheap State.
      Kerry- Massachusetts- Expensive State.
      Levin- Michigan- Expensive State.
      Baucus- Montana- Cheap State.
      Lautenbeg-New Jersey- Expensive State.
      Reed- Rhode Island- Cheap State.
      Johnson- South Dakota- Cheap State
      Rockefeller- West Virginia- Cheap State.

      On the Republican Side- The Safe Seats are.
      Enzi- Wyoming
      Cochran- Missisissippi
      Roberts- Kansas
      Graham- South Carolina
      Sessions- Alabama
      Chambliss- Georgia.
      Barasso- Wyoming
      OPEN- Idaho
      OPEN- Nebraska
      Alexander- Tennessee.
      Cornyn- Texas
      Inhofe- Oklahoma'

      The most vulnerable Democratic Seat is Landrieu(LA)- this race is a Tossup/Slight Democratic Favored.

      The most vulnerable Republican Seat is the open Virginia Seat(Warner)and the open New Mexico seat(Domenici)- Both are Strong Democratic Pickups- NRSC is basically considing VA and NM. followed by NH and CO.

      The NRSC needs to convince Ted Stevens to retire. - Republicans will have a better chance on winning AK without Stevens.

      They will spend $$$ helping Mitch McConnell- KY.

      •  I would add (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Land of Enchantment

        One of the Wyoming seats (take your pick) to the list, along with the Nebraska and Oklahoma seats.  I have a feeling Inhofe will self-destruct during the election when Andrew Rice starts hammering away at him and his dinosaur thinking.  But with regard to funding, I think the NRSC will have to spend in every state on the board except for Mississippi, Alabama, and maybe Kansas.  Every other seat will have a strong candidate on which the NRSC will have to dump money to counter.

        And you know they're not going to give in and "quit" and "cut and run" when it comes to New Mexico and New Hampshire and Virginia.  The more money they dump into those states, the better.  And if and when they decide to leave those states I'll be very happy to label them with those lovely platitudes and watch them squirm as they try to explain why they are quitting races if everything in the world is so rosy and the GOP is so mighty.

        Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind -- Albert Einstein

        by BasharH on Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 09:58:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  IF the GOP had a choice between. (0+ / 0-)

          Making sure Mitch McConnell_KY gets re-elected or making sure the Blue State Republican Senators (ME,MN,NH,and OR) get re-elected. What would the NRSC decide.

          •  I hope they decide (0+ / 0-)

            To prop up McConnell although he has raised a bunch of money already and doesn't need too much help in that department.  But I think his approval will be so low by then that all the money in the world won't help him.  I'll look for the NRSC to spread the money around, thereby giving candidates less all around instead of concentrating on specific races.  Sounds like a recipes for GOP disaster and I couldn't be happier.

            Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind -- Albert Einstein

            by BasharH on Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 03:03:54 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  I hope Chavez doesn't do too much damage. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Land of Enchantment

    He's ready to fight dirty, pitting Hispanic against Anglo. Is Pearce gonna fight dirty too, smearing Heather with insinuations of .. what? Wrecking the dept of Justice? Repubs don't care about that. Janet Jackson foolishness? Naw. Maybe Pearce will have to commission a poll asking voters how they feel about Heather's homosexuality.

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