U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon fears confrontation in Lebanon if feuding political factions are unable to reach agreement on a consensus presidential candidate by tomorrow.
Tomorrow, November 23rd, Lebanon's current Syrian-backed President Emile Lahoud, is due to leave office and a new President needs to be elected by Lebanon's Parliament.
The problem?
Hizbullah, considered a terrorist organization by Washington, has said it would not settle for a president under U.S. tutelage while the majority has balked at any candidate close to Syria and Iran.
Pro-Syrian Parliament speaker Nabih Berri is seen by most as little more than a puppet of Syria and the anti-Syrian majority of the Lebanese Parliament is holded up in a Beirut hotel to avoid the fate of Rafik Hariri.
Already, the Parliament has postponed three votes as feuding pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian sides have failed to agree upon a compromise candidate.
The crisis is essentially a confrontation pitting the interests of the U.S. and its allies against the interests of Iran and Syria.
Quite simply, Lebanon is the proxy collision point between US/French/EU and Iranian/Syrian/and Russian interests and the Iranian nuclear weapons program. For Syria and Iran, if they "lose ground" in Lebanon with the government becoming anti-Syrian or lose Hizbollah's influence and ability to unilaterally "declare war" on Israel as it did in 2006, then the US/France/EU are more able to counter Iran's aims to complete its nuclear weapons program, end its interference in Iraq and Afghanistan, and to push for a more "successful" conclusion to US efforts in Iraq.
Tensions are high. In anticipation of violent outbreaks, schools have been shut and the Lebanese army presence has been heightened in Beirut.
The U.S. is not sitting by idly and, according to this article at SeekingAlpha.com, it has already...
dumped almost 300 armored Humvees into Lebanon's armed forces, and is working on transferring of US jet fighters and helicopters to rebuild the Lebanese Air Force, etc. This doesn't include ammunition, potentially training of various Lebanese army units in other countries outside Lebanon, etc.
The article goes on to say...
Perhaps the extra muscle to encourage a "fair result" sits about 100-200 miles off Lebanon's coast. The US Sixth fleet deployment on station possibly includes the following:
The Truman Carrier Strike Group which consists of:
aircraft carrier, USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75),
guided missile cruisers USS San Jacinto (CG 56) and USS Hue City (CG 66);
guided missile destroyers USS Carney (DDG 64), USS Oscar Austin (DDG 79) and USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81);
attack submarine USS Montpelier (SSN 765);
fast combat support ship USNS Arctic (T-AOE 8);
the Canadian frigate HMCS Charlottetown (FFG 339); and
the British destroyer HMS Manchester (D 95).
Carrier Air Wing Three (CVW-3) consists of Strike Fighter Squadrons VFA-11, VFA-32, VFA-37 and VFA-105; (likely F/A 18F Super Hornets)
Tactical Electronics Warfare Squadron VAQ-130;
Carrier Airborne Early Warning Squadron VAW-126; and
Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron HS-7.
Also, there is likely a US Marine Expeditionary Unit [MEU] in the Med. Perhaps one like the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit which has about 2,200 US Marines, many with combat experience in Iraq, and Afghanistan, and is Special Operations Capable [SOC]. Currently it includes:
US Marines Kearsarge Strike Group which consists of:
USS Kearsarge (LHD 3), a helicopter carrier with Harrier's for close air support.
USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44), an amphibious landing ship
USS Ponce (LPD 15), an amphibious landing ship
USS Carr (FFG 52), frigate
USS Porter (DDG 78), guided missile destroyer
USS Vicksburg (CG 69), guided missile cruiser and
USS Miami (SSN 755), attack submarine.
I'm fearful that our next military adventure will initially take place in Lebanon instead of Iran, with the potential to eventually expand to Iran and elsewhere.
Update: Thanks to sofia for this hopeful bit of news: Aoun offers Lebanon presidency deal