Just a quick note that the Canadian member at the Commonwealth has put forth a motion to suspend Pakistan from the association of 53 nations.
Short version: Pakistan has been suspended from the Commonwealth
Pakistan was suspended from the 53-nation Commonwealth on Thursday over President Pervez Musharraf's failure to lift imposition of emergency rule and meet a deadline to restore democracy in the country.
The Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG), a committee of nine foreign ministers empowered by the Commonwealth to make such decisions, agreed to turf Pakistan during a meeting in Uganda.
Now, my first reaction to this was to wonder why Stephen Harper's government would want to do this. After all, the Canadian military is currently fighting next door in Afghanistan. Would it be in their (the soldiers') interest to distance ourselves from a guy who quite likely can make things rather worse? Or, perhaps this constitutes a rap in return for a perceived unwillingness of Musharraf to do more to deal with the people who are killing our soldiers (and a whole lot of Afghanis).
But i'm sure most of you will understand that my very first assumption—whatever the reason—was that this was a favour to someone in Washington. Harper's government has been very cozy with certain GOP movers & shakers, even busing them in to help get them elected. So it's not too difficult to imagine that this was done, at least partly, at the request of the US (which blew its chance at a Commonwealth vote back in '76).
Some of you might be thinking that it'd be strange for junior Cheney to suddenly want to hang Musharraf out over the edge like that after propping him up as the great ally in the War on Terror® for so long. Well, it's beginning to look like Washington is taking the position that Musharraf has finally got to be replaced. One wonders about the involvement of both the US and British governments (not to mention the Saudis) in Bhutto's recent moves back from quiet exile.
Last week, LithiumCola posted a diary, US and Pakistan: Strange Coincidence of Nuke Stories. In it, there is the suggestion that the White House was up to some shenanigans aimed at keeping Musharraf's hold on power intact. I responded that my take on it was quite the reverse:
I'm guessing that Musharraf is trying the patience of the administration and this latest rebuff of Negroponte has pissed them off. He's basically throwing back in their faces the excuse that they themselves have been using whenever they get flak for their support of his regime. Except they happen to know that it isn't precisely true, given that they've been working closely with Pakistan for years to keep a tight lid on the nukes.
nutshell (my take): Musharraf tried to pretend to Negroponte that the US needs him, rather than the other way around. White House allowed the NYT to publish evidence that the US had the Pakistani nuke thing pretty well in control. Basically, it looks like the White House is cutting him loose.
Although Musharraf (and Pakistan) weathered the last suspension, in 1999, following the coup that brought him to the Presidency (it was lifted just 3½ years ago for good behaviour) his hold on power is rather tenuous at the moment. Between the hardline, throat-slitting element, a judiciary that is in open revolt, and an exiled ex-leader brazenly whipping up support (and opposition), his position has become quite untenable. And i suspect that this move by the Canadian government Neo-Conucks is aimed at further destabilising him.
How this all plays out in Kandahar Province we'll have to see.
¹ Other members are the UK, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, Malta (Chair), Tanzania, Lesotho and Malaysia, and Saint Lucia, which did not attend the meeting. Ibid
UPDATE: mattman asks, about the suspension, the obvious question: "Is it a real threat having ANY consequences at all?" I'll defer to The Times of India (who, surely, have no dog in this fight):
Suspension from the Commonwealth: What it means
- A ban on Pakistan attending any Commonwealth meeting anywhere in the world, including the three-day heads of government summit that begins in Kampala on Friday.
- The withdrawal of "technical assistance", where officials from one Commonwealth country are sent to another member state with a view to improving public administration and government.
- A bar on attending Commonwealth-run training programmes and workshops for officials.
- Exclusion from the Commonwealth Games, which are next due to be held in India in 2010.
Suspension from the Commonwealth is largely symbolic but diplomatic isolation often goes hand-in-hand with more punitive economic sanctions.