cross posted to docudharma
Last night, in Congressional district trivia we had some fun with trivia.
Today, though, I have the first in a bunch of analytic diaries based on the same information. For each congressional district, I have:
%Urban
Median Income
% in poverty
% veterans
% nonHispanic White
% nonHispanic Black
% Hispanic
Cook PVI
Below the fold, I look at Republican Reps in Democratic districts, based on Cook PVI
The Cook PVI is, essentially, the average of the vote in the district in the last two presidential elections; it's a little more sophisticated, because it's weighted to remove the influence of third parties, and standardized so that the average district has a rating of 0, but basically, that's it.
There are 13 Republicans who represent districts that have Cook PVI favoring Democrats
CT-04: Christopher Shays. The last two elections have both been against Diane Farrell, and both have been close. In 2006, Shays won by less than 10,000 votes out of 200,000+ cast. This was a hugely expensive race (the two, together, spent almost $6 million). CT-04 is mostly suburbs of NYC, it's one of the wealthiest districts in the USA (median income of $66,600 per year, in the 95th percentile). Shays is a moderate Republican, almost a RINO: He's pro-choice, pro-gay rights, for increasing the minimum wage. How many Republicans were conscientious objectors in the Vietnam War?
He was hard to beat. But now, he may be retiring, and there are several Democrats in the race, including at least one (Jim Hines) who is enormously wealthy (Hines was an investment banker at Goldman Sachs).
If Shays retires, this looks like a gimmee. If not, there is still a good chance
DE-AL. Delaware's rep is Michael Castle, who was first elected in 1992. Another moderate Republican (especially on social issues) Castle has won easily against little opposition, despite the fact that DE gave 53% to Kerry and 55% to Gore. In 2006, though, Castle had a stroke, and he has not been well since. He might retire, he might run for Senate (against Biden). If he runs, he seems like the favorite, if he bows out, this should be an easy pick-up. But even if he runs, he has competition: Our own "Possum" (Jerry Northington) and others. Kossacks for Congress! Yeah! Show possum some love and money at possum's web site.
FL-10 is a very different place. This district is St. Petersburg, FL. The representative is Bill Young, who has been in congress since 1970, and is now the most senior Republican. It has one of the highest percentages of veterans in the country (18.3%, it's in 14th place); and Young is no moderate. Young has won easily against token opposition, in 2004, he ran 20 points ahead of Bush. It's not clear if he's running again race tracker, but, so far, the only announced opposition is Samm Simpson, who ran in 2006 but raised only $40,000. This one bears watching.
NJ-02 is represented by Frank LoBiondo, and is centered on Atlantic City.
LoBiondo has always won easily, and seems poised to do so again. Race tracker identifies several potential challengers, but no definite ones.
NJ-03 is represented by Jim Saxton, who is retiring. This district gave 54% to Gore, and 49% to Kerry. It's a golden opportunity for a pickup. Saxton was relatively moderate on social and economic issues, but quite the conservative on foreign ones. There's already one challenger: State Sen. John Adler. The guy who ran (and lost 58-41) in 2006 is Rich Sexton (Vote Saxton! Sexton? No Saxton! No Sexton!... it must have been hysterical) and, now that it's an open seat, others may join.
NM-01 is represented by Heather (nipplegate) Wilson. In 2006, Wilson won by 861 votes out of over 200,000, in a campaiign that cost over $8 million. This district gave Kerry 51% and Gore 48% (plus 5% to Nader). The first district is Albuquerque and suburbs. But now, Wilson seems to be retiring to run for the Senate seat vacated by Domenici and several people are running for the seat vacated by Wilson. New Mexico is going to be full of politics this year, with a lively Senate race (where Udall is the big favorite), and with Gov. Richardson running for President, and all three House seats wide open.
NV-03 is mostly Las Vegas suburbs, but it spreads out in a Y shape. Its representative is Jon Porter, who is much too conservative for a district that gave Gore a narrow lead over Bush, and Bush a narrow lead over Kerry. Porter only got the seat in 2002, in a race where his opponent had some ethics problems. In 2006, he won by 4,000 votes over Tessa Hafen, despite outspending her 2-1. There are two confirmed challengers (race tracker. Andrew Martin and Barry Michaels, but Martin's website looks much more professional to me.
NY-03 is the eastern half of Nassau county, a suburb of NYC. It gave Gore 52%, but then gave Bush 52% against Kerry. While this is not the district where many of the really rich live (i.e., it doesn't include the Hamptons) it does have one of the highest median incomes in the USA, at $70,561, which is 13th highest in the nation. Race tracker shows no confirmed challengers, which is a shame, because the Representative for NY-03 is much too conservative for this district. This is a guy who is anti-abortion, anti-gun control (not popular in this district), anti-bilingual education, and has made some fairly inflammatory anti-Muslim comments.
NY-13 is the only Republican district in NYC. But Staten Island is really a separate place, feeling more like a series of suburban towns than a part of the country's largest city. One way to see this is to note that NY-13 is much larger than other CDs in NYC: It is 103 sq. miles, compared to NY-14 (15 sq. miles), NY-08 (28 sq miles), or the smallest of all, NY-11, at 12 sq. miles. Another way it differs is that it is much less liberal than most of NYC, in that it actually gave Bush 55% against Kerry (although it gave Gore 52%). The four most Democratic CDs in the country are all in NYC, and the sixth most Democratic is also ( NY15 NY16 NY10 NY11 PA02 NY06), NY-13 is a land apart. Its representative is Vito Fosella, first elected in 1997, and never seriously challenged. The 2006 challenger, Steve Harrison is running again; in 2006, he lost 57-43, but spent only $132,000.
PA-06 is the western suburbs of Philadelphia. It gave narrow leads to both Gore and Kerry. Its representative is Jim Gerlach, first elected in 2002 and in close elections every time, never getting more than 51%. He is one of the most moderate Republicans in the House, but this seat should be Blue. There is no confirmed challenger, and the woman who ran against Gerlach the last two times, Lois Murphy, has declined to run again. Still, one probable challenger is the actress Melissa Fitzgerald, who appears on West Wing.
PA-15 is the Lehigh valley, including famous Allentown. It was one of the closest districts in the country in 2004, giving Kerry just 800 more votes than Bush. Its represntative is Peter Dent, first elected in 2004, when he won easily despite being outspent. Interestingly, the race in 2006 was a little closer, although the Democrat, Charles Dertinger, spent less than $100,000 (I haven't computed it, but Dertinger spent only $1 per vote, which may be the lowest in a contested race). This year there are two confirmed challengers of whom I would go for Sam Bennett. I explored her site a bit. I like this
The Bush Administration seems to have things exactly backwards. Where government should be robust – protecting and caring for its citizens – they have made it weak. Where government should tread lightly, they have made it overbearing
. and
"Supporting our troops" is not leaving them in Iraq to referee a religious civil war, with no plan, no mission and no end in sight. People here and across America support our troops with all our hearts, and we want them home.
. Show her some love, give her some money.
Last but not least, WA-08 is the eastern part of Seattle and suburbs. It's representative is Dave Reichert. This race gets a lot of attention here on dailyKos: His opponent is Darcy Burner. Reichert isn't that bad, for a Republican, but Burner is great for anyone! In 2006 Reichert won by 7,000 votes in a race where each spent just over $3 million. Darcy's taking him on again, and she needs our support. WA-08 is high in median income ($63,854 puts it in the 94th percentile) and low in poverty (5.1% puts it in the 4th percentile).