The California Republican Party is slowly dying. It may be that November 4, 2008 will be the time of death.
The only relevance that the Republicans have now in California is the requirement that a budget receive 2/3 vote of both the Assembly and the Senate. As long as Republicans have a third of one of those legislative bodies, they have some relevance.
The Democrats have a credible vision for ending that one third tyranny.
Right now, Democrats need to win 6 Assembly seats and 2 Senate seats to achieve a 2/3 majority. Districts that have between 40 and 43 percent Republican voters are considered marginal district: a moderate Republican can win, but Democrats have a clear shot at a right wing Republican. With more and more moderate Republicans leaving the party, the remaining right wingers end up nominating candidates who cannot attract independent votes.
In the Assembly there are six Republicans retiring due to term limits in seats that were once considered safe Republican seats and now are clearly marginal (10,15, 26, 36, 78, 80) Republican registration has by an average of 2.5% in these districts over the past 4 years.
Let’s take AD 15 as an example. In 2002, Guy Houston won by about 10,000 votes. At the time there were 105,000 Republicans out of a total of 241,000 voters. Today there are about the same number of Republicans, but 27,000 more total voters. This is an example of how large shifts can materially affect races. The new candidate to replace Houston had better not be an orthodox Republican or there is no chance in the general election. But only an orthodox Republican can get through the primary.
AD 15 is a medium level potential for the Democrats. AD 78 and 80 in San Diego should have been Democratic years ago, but this year with the retirement of Bonnie Garcia and Shirley Horton, Democrats should have no problem picking up those seats.
The Senate is a little more difficult. Although only two seats are required to push the GOP to below a third, it may be more difficult in the Senate than the Assembly. The most obvious target is Abel Maldonado who’s 37% Republican district might elect an exemplary Republican, but Maldonado is a very long way from exemplary.
The other Senate seat is actually a recall—Jeff Denham. He is a right winger (often dressed in moderate clothing) who is representing a district that has gone for centrist politics for decades. I have always reserved the recall process for rather extreme cases, but in this case, the extreme case might not be Denham, but rather the GOP itself.
As for the two parties, the Republicans have just discontinued an ambitious program of funding executive directors in numerous County Central Committees. They are $3.4 million in debt and $1.6 million of cash and seem to be in a deep dark hole.
The Democrats have $5.4 million in cash and $40,000 of debt.
Can the Democrats recruit the right kind of candidates and put together a winning strategy for passing budgets? Time will tell, but today, I like their chances.