Pakistan/Musharraf: Bush in "watch and learn" mode

NY Tymes:

WASHINGTON, Nov. 3 — For more than five months the United States has been trying to orchestrate a political transition in Pakistan that would manage to somehow keep Gen. Pervez Musharraf in power without making a mockery of President Bush’s promotion of democracy in the Muslim world.

On Saturday, those carefully laid plans fell apart spectacularly. Now the White House is stuck in wait-and-see "watch and learn" mode, with limited options and a lack of clarity about the way forward. eagerness to learn the ins and outs of declaring martial law/national emergency.

General Musharraf’s move to seize emergency powers and abandon the Constitution left Bush administration officials close to their nightmare: envious, with dreams of an American-backed American military dictator who is risking civil instability in a country with nuclear weapons and an increasingly alienated public.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, traveling in the Middle East, called Mr. Musharraf’s move “highly regrettable,” inspirational, while her spokesman, Sean D. McCormack, said the United States was “deeply disturbed” undoubtedly next.

Teresita Schaffer, an expert on Pakistan at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, called General Musharraf’s action “a big embarrassment” real model for the administration. But she said there was not much the United States American Congress, Supreme Court, and citizens could do.

“There’s going to be a lot of visible wringing of hands, and urging Musharraf Bush to declare his intentions,” she Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer and Diane Feinstein said. “But I don’t really see any alternative to continuing to work with him...."

•  tips/strikethroughs n/t

  by seesdifferent on Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 10:22:26 PM PDT

•  Shades of Venezuela? n/t

  by ticket punch on Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 10:23:40 PM PDT

  •  I think V is still a step or two away

    they are going to have an election.  And even then, it wouldn't be martial law.

    by seesdifferent on Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 10:32:10 PM PDT

    •  Now that I've re-read, I see I have it backwards.

      In Venezuela, our government gave tacit encouragement to the leaders of a putative coup that would have overthrown Hugo Chavez, a dictator we don't like. Exactly the opposite of the situation in Pakistan.

      by ticket punch on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 06:25:59 AM PDT

•  I took the WaPo report on this....

  and made a few changes and got this diary.

  It's a cautionary tale that we must prevent.

  by arodb on Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 10:32:32 PM PDT

•  Can't wait to see how they blame Iran...

  For another of George W Bush's fuckups.

  by manwithnoname on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 04:39:51 AM PDT

•  Bush's reaction should be interesting...

  Not surprising, but interesting.

  Over/under bets on when GW does the same?

  Will he wait until October or do it right before the election?

  by DrWolfy on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 04:55:35 AM PDT

  •  W's still learning his lines

    Dick Cheney has everything already planned, and David Addington is telling W's staffers exactly what W is going to say and when. W will have the right to insert his uh's and ah's whereever he wants them, and of course the right to all the pretzels he can eat.

    But seriously, Bush's reaction to this will be boring (empty talk, that's it). As for when the takeover happens, it will be right after the election. Gotta give the people the illusion of voting, then bring up Iran Qaeda Evil Axis 9/11 terr'ists. The NSA already knows the identities of everyone posting here, so we'll soon be in internment camps telling each other "we knew it, see!"

    by DrReason on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 05:11:43 AM PDT

•  To say the our entire Mideast policy .,,,

  is in disarray would be a bit of an understatement. I certainly wouldn't blame the bush administration for all of the problems, it goes back much longer than that ,but we certainly need a change in outlook and change in policy. It should be remembered that Pakistan is a nuclear power and should be considered a much more serious problem than a "wannabe" nuclear power like Iran.

  by irate on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 05:27:08 AM PDT

•  Good diary

  Has inspired me to write one of my own.  Thanks for the link to NYTimes article.

  by lizpolaris on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 06:15:18 AM PDT

•  Quoting Lincoln

  Maybe I will sound like a conspiracy theorist for saying this, but listening to Musharraf's English language speech (I cannot find a link to a transcript), I thought it sounded a hell of a lot like the sort of speeh Bush sometimes gives, that is that it sounded a bit like the same speechwriters were behind it. Is it natural in the Pakistani political context to rationalize one's actions by invoking Lincoln's use of martial law? This sounds like a typical neocon talking point rather than something that would occur naturally to a politician or general in Pakistan, though perhaps I underestimate Musharraf's culture (maybe he has studied the military history of the US Civil War; perhaps this is a standard argument taught throughout the world to potential future leaders of coup d'etats).

  At any rate, it would not surprise me if the weak disapproval of Musharraf emanating from Washington had been carefully coordinated in advance as a sort of smokescreen so as to prevent the US from losing face when it supports Musharraf's repression in a few weeks.  

  It would be nice to hear from someone who understands Pakistani politics.

  by xylon on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 07:02:11 AM PDT