Results from a new Zogby poll, (not interactive), indicate that Hillary Clinton leads the two early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire. The Iowa results are in contrast to a new Strategic Vision poll that shows Obama in front in Iowa, so its unsure what accounts for the discrepancy.
The results are as follows:
Iowa Primary - Likely Caucus Goers
Dodd <1% <br>Gravel <1% <br>Not Sure 11%
Clinton leads the Democratic race here with 27%, followed closely by Barack Obama of Illinois at 24% and John Edwards of North Carolina with 21%. There has been very little movement in the Democratic race here since last month, as the front–runners essentially stood still and two lower–tier candidates – Senator Joe Biden of Delaware and Congressman Dennis Kucinich of Ohio – gained two points each.
In fact, this race has remained remarkably stable for the past year. Zogby telephone polling in Iowa last January showed it to be a three–way race with 13% undecided – now, 11% say they have yet to make up their minds.
Since last month, however, Clinton was able to solidify her standing among some likely caucus–goers by increasing the number of people who said she would be their second choice. This is a critical factor in the Democratic caucus in Iowa. In the caucuses, a first round of "balloting" is conducted, and those candidates who do not win at least 15% support are ruled "unviable" and supporters are directed to a second choice among those who remained "viable" before a second round of "balloting" is conducted.
Last month, Obama and Edwards were much more preferred as a second choice among those candidates who appear to be unviable under Democratic caucus rules. Clinton appears to be gaining ground among those who might consider experience to be an important factor in choosing a nominee – she wins the lion’s share of support among those who make Biden their first choice, and she does well among those who would first choose New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.
Among those who make Obama their first choice, Edwards is their second choice, and vice versa. Among those who make Clinton their first choice, Obama is the favorite second choice.
Among independents who said they would caucus with the Democrats, Obama leads with 31%, followed by Edwards at 26% and Clinton at 19%.
Among Iowa women, Clinton leads with 33%, followed by Obama and Edwards, both at 23%. Among men, Obama leads with 26%, followed by Clinton at 20% and Edwards at 19%. Richardson wins 10% and Biden 9% among men.
New Hampshire Primary - Likely Voters
Dodd <1% <br>Gravel <1% <br>Not Sure 17%
Hillary Clinton continues to enjoy a double–digit lead here on the Democratic side, but it has shrunk from 15 points in late September to 11 points now. She wins 32% support, compared to 21% for Barack Obama. Edwards is a solid but distant third here.
Clinton’s support comes from older likely voters, while Obama does well among younger voters. Among those age 65 and older, she leads with 37%, compared to 15% for Obama and 11% for Edwards. But Obama closes the gap with those age 30–49, where Clinton holds just a 33% to 27% edge with Edwards at 18%. Among those age 50–64, Clinton leads with 32% over Obama at 25% and Edwards at 17%.
Among men, Clinton leads with 24%, followed by 20% for Edwards and 18% for Obama. Among women, she leads with 39%, compared to 23% for Obama and 13% for Edwards.
About half of those supporting Clinton and Obama here say their support is rock solid and will not change, the poll shows. Among Obama supporters, the other half (50%) said their support is strong but that they could change their minds before Election Day. For Clinton, 44% said their support is strong but they could change their minds.
Edwards supporters are more likely to change their minds before the primary than are Obama and Clinton supporters, the survey shows. Nearly two out of three – 62% – of Edwards backers said it is either somewhat or very likely they could change their minds, while 52% of Obama supporters and 47% of Clinton backers said the same thing.