OH-05 isn’t the only special election on the immediate radar. On the same day as the OH-05 special (next Tuesday, December 11), Virginia’s 1st district will hold a special election to fill the seat of the late Rep. Jo Ann Davis, who had held the seat since 2000. As in Ohio, things are suddenly getting a lot more interesting in this theoretically solid-red district.
Our candidate, selected at a nominating convention, is Iraq War veteran, Bronze Star winner, and fourth-grade teacher Philip Forgit. Forgit ran for the VA House of Delegates in 2003 and lost narrowly. He’ll be opposed by Republican State Rep. Rob Wittman. Governor Tim Kaine, former Governor Mark Warner, and General Wesley Clark have all endorsed Forgit and given to his campaign.
It’s been an intense race so far; both candidates were nominated at conventions on November 10, just one month and a day before the election.
Raising Kaine has a great interview with Forgit where they discuss, among other things, Forgit’s positions on trade (he supports fair trade), torture (very critical of waterboarding), and the summer FISA bill (he opposes retroactive telecom immunity).
It must be acknowledged that this district is quite Republican. The PVI of VA-01 is R +8.9, and they haven’t elected a Democrat to Congress since 1977. Jo Ann Davis’s smallest margin of victory was in her first election, which she won 58-37. Bush beat Kerry 60-39 here. Governor Kaine lost the district 51-46 (while winning the state 52-46), and Senator Webb lost 54-44 (while he won the state 50-49).
Is the race competitive? The Republicans sure seem to think so. Tom Cole’s NRCC (in no position to take anything for granted), just spent $80,000, including $10,000 on polling.
That’s a huge chunk of money for them. It is more than Forgit's total for this campaign as of November 21, and nearly as much as Wittman has raised.
Why would they do that? They certainly don’t have the money to spare. They’re not just in financial trouble; they’re broke. At last filing they were $3.6 million in debt, and of the $2.6 million they had on hand, they’ve now spent over $400,000 in a week between OH-05 and VA-01.
They must be pretty concerned about these districts to spend what little cash they have left on races such as these.
Or perhaps they realize that an embarrassing performance in either of these districts is going to reveal their badly-kept secret to the country: not only are House Republicans are in no position to rebound in 2008 from their 2006 fiasco, but they are continuing to lose ground to Democrats.
They can’t afford to spend on this race, really. But they most certainly can’t afford for this race to be the one that pulls the curtain on the sad state of affairs for the NRCC and House Republicans.
On the web:
Philip Forgit for U.S. Congress