Hillary Clinton has proven to be the strong choice among Democrats as their nominee in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania since Quinnipiac has been doing its continuous tracking polls in them.
Today, the latest results prove that Clinton remains the overwhelming choice for the Democratic nominee, leading with what can only be viewed by her opponents as embarrassing margins. The data also bodes ill for the Republican national front runner, Giuliani, and suggests that dissatisfaction among Republicans for their field of choices is so strong that one can speculate that Republicans may sit out the '08 election in droves, or else vote for the Democrat.
December 5, 2007 - Clinton Ends '07 In A Good Spot In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds --- FLORIDA: Clinton 53 - Obama 17; Giuliani 30 - Romney 12; OHIO: Clinton 45 - Obama 19; Giuliani 29 - McCain 13; PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 - Obama 15; Giuliani 27 - Huckabee, McCain 13
In spite of Iowa's moment in the spotlight, it is having little impact on the more crucial swing state primary voters, and on other voters at large, regarding the immigration issue.
"These Democratic primary numbers are a good indication that despite the tight three-way race in Iowa, the fight for the nomination is not very close and that Sen. Clinton's lead remains very large and deep," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have been pivotal in deciding presidential elections since 1964. It's no different in 2008. For Democrats to win the White House, they will have to capture these big electoral states who combine to give the nominee 27(FL) + 20(OH) + 21(PA) = 68 ECVs.
For a Democrat to be elected, the candidate will have to capture these two most important demographic groups: women and Hispanic voters.
Hillary Clinton has overwhelming leads, especially among women, in Democratic primaries in three critical swing states
While we know that Iraq and health care ( very important to women voters) are the two big issues, Republicans are trying to make immigration the key issue (very important to Hispanic voters) of the 2008 campaign. It's a false issue, except for the acknowledged need for the federal government to enforce existing laws. It appears that certain Republicans have acknowledged that's the way to go -- at least in Florida. Consequently, a good Democratic strategy to answer the Republican immigration issue would be to field a candidate who voters perceive is strong there.
Again, Clinton is the overwhelming choice of all voters, whether Democrat or Republican for the task.
In each state, Clinton is seen as the best candidate in either party to handle the immigration issue. By substantial majorities, almost 4 - 1 in Ohio and Pennsylvania, voters favor immigration reform that emphasizes stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigrants rather than integrating illegal immigrants into American society.
Why is the choice of the best candidate regarding the immigration issue so important for a Democratic win in 2008? Because
. . .20 to 25 percent of voters in each state would vote against a presidential candidate who disagreed with them on immigration policy, even if they agreed on everything else.
Here are the details of Clinton's strong and deep support, and Giuliani's weak and tentative attraction. I'm going to focus on Florida in most of the detailed breakdowns below, since that's my state.
* Florida: Clinton tops Obama 53 - 17 percent among all Democrats and 56 - 13 percent among women. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gets 7 percent. Giuliani gets 30 percent of Republican votes, with 12 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 11 percent for Huckabee, 10 percent for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and 9 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain.
* Ohio: Clinton leads Obama 45 - 19 among Democrats and 53 - 15 percent among women, with 13 percent for Edwards. Giuliani leads McCain 29 - 13 percent, with 10 percent for Huckabee and 7 percent each for Thompson and Romney.
* Pennsylvania: Clinton beats Obama 43 - 15 percent among Democrats, with 47 - 11 percent among women, while Edwards gets 9 percent. Giuliani gets 27 percent of Republicans, with Huckabee and McCain at 13 percent each, and Romney and Thompson at 6 percent each.
Put to rest questions of Clinton's presidential electability in these states.
General election matchups in these swing states show:
* Florida: Clinton tops Giuliani 48 - 41 percent; Giuliani led 46 - 43 percent October 25;
* Ohio: Clinton leads Giuliani 45 - 41 percent compared to 44 percent for Clinton and 43 percent for Giuliani November 14;
* Pennsylvania: Clinton and Giuliani are tied 44 - 44 percent, compared to a 45 - 43 percent Clinton lead November 8.
Against other opponents, Clinton fares better in most match-ups.
* Clinton tops McCain 47 - 40 percent, Thompson 52 - 36 percent, Romney 50 - 36 percent and Huckabee 50 - 35 percent
Neither Obama nor Edwards will win against Giuliani in Florida.
* Giuliani bests Obama 45 - 37 percent and Edwards 43 - 39 percent.
Favorability, long misapprehended by many Kossacks regarding Clinton, is not a problem once we leave this small arena for the wider world where the nominee will actually get elected.
By a 52 - 41 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
* 48 - 34 percent for Giuliani;
* 44 - 28 percent for McCain;
* 43 - 31 percent for Obama;
* 42 - 35 percent for Edwards;
* Negative 25 - 28 percent for Thompson;
* 29 - 27 percent for Romney;
* 56 percent don't know enough about Huckabee to form an opinion.
And Florida voters, who have a deep interest in immigration issues, feel this way about the next president's position.
By a 66 - 24 percent margin, Florida voters favor enforcement over integration in immigration reform. And 25 percent of Florida voters say they would vote against a presidential candidate who disagreed on integration policy, even if they agreed on everything else.
Clinton is over 50% in the Democratic primary in Florida. An enviable position, indeed, with less than two months to go before the primary.
For details regarding OH and PA, and for the actual questions used in this poll, and other facts regarding methodology, please go here.