As a nearly lifelong resident of Iowa (since the age of one) I feel that some things need to be explained, especially in light of the recent endorsements and "Obama surge".
Also I will briefly discuss the Dean 2004 implosion and why it is not likely to happen this year. And some young voter statistics
Iowa politics work differently than most people would expect. Since Iowa is a small state (Population of just under 3 Million, so maybe 1,500 kossacks), you may expect it to work like most small states, but it doesn't. It works much more like that of Chicago, especially in Des Moines. Without further ado I will discuss:
1.Endorsements
2.Caucuses
Friday or Monday:
3.Scandals
4.Back door politics
What do endorsements mean?
A couple days ago people were talking about the endorsement of Barack Obama by Des Moines mayor Frank Cownie, as well as the endorsement of John Edwards by IA-1's Bruce Braley. Some said that we shouldn't take this seriously because Dean got endorsements in 2003 and tanked.
That is because in Iowa who endorses matters, and in 2003 Gore's endorsement did not carry much real weight here. People were mad that he did not run and because he did not fight hard enough in 2000 (pre-Florida, I blame Bob Shrum). But Cownie's matters, because he is hugely popular. Also there is a factor no one else has mentioned, partially because they don't actually know Frank Cownie.
I spent a couple of days with him this June 6-8 in Washington DC, as part of a lobbying trip (The Greater Des Moines Partnership), we were looking for more bike trails and mass transit money mainly, as well some for Green Buildings. He is the most progressive mayor we have had in Des Moines since maybe the late 60s (I don't know much before than, so maybe longer). Beyond that he is connected to Des Moines money. This comes partially from being mayor (and city council before that) and partially from his family's fur Business- Cownie Furs. On that note, Cownie is a vegetarian and has implemented no endangered animals policy, not just here but elsewhere, and checks suppliers for how they raise animals. His endorsement is a major coup for Obama, and short of maybe Harkin and Chet Culver endorsing the same candidate that may have put Obama over the top.(I will discuss next time why Vilsack's endorsement doesn't carry much weight).
Caucus Talk
People have mentioned the fact that the Iowa caucus will be on January 3rd will mean that the impact of students will be blunted. First most Chicago students come back on January 2nd, if they leave at all. Chicago accounts for about half of the enrollment of University of Iowa (maybe 12-15K). Iowa State and UNI are almost all Iowa residents as are most liberal arts schools (excepting international students, which can't vote anywhere in the US).
Some statistics via facebook:
Event Name:Rock the Caucus in Iowa
Tagline:From Iowa? Attend the Iowa Caucus on Thursday, January 3rd and rock it!
Host:Rock the Caucus
Type:Causes - Rally
Date:Thursday, January 3, 2008
Time:6:00pm - 8:00pm
Location:All over the state of Iowa
City/Town:Iowa
Currently attending: 5,725
Maybe attending: 7,478
Not attending: 20,801
No reply yet: 13,871
Total invites: 47,875
While these numbers are not definitive, they do serve as a bell weather, with some caveats: 1. These people may not be 18 by election day (17 year olds can vote if they will be 18 by November) 2. These people may not show up.
124,000-ish people showed up in 2004, and I am expecting close to 200,000 this year. Young people break hard for Obama.
More facebook stats:
Out of 280,085 votes total- 52 percent Democrat:
Obama: 67,567 45%
Clinton: 24,715 16%
Edwards: 9,662 6%
Gore: 6,698 4%
Kucinich: 6,068 4%
All other less than 1%
Again these number are not scientific, but they show how strong and hard the Obama lead is. That said the numbers again can be used to gauge turnout.
Caucus Organizations
I know that people have mentioned how strong Edward's organization but I think Obama's is stronger. It running since March statewide, with prominent offices, and I think they may surprise people. They are also winning the "sign war" by a wide margin.
One last note about the caucuses: as to why Iowa goes first, it has to do with the McGovern-Fraser commission and the debacle during the 1944 Democratic convention, which lead to Henry A. Wallace being left off the ticket in favor of Truman (through somewhat disreputable means, the next day). It was a tribute to his legacy, which people forget.
Note 1: Young voter statistics and indicators are part of my senior thesis here, so if you all want a diary on that I may be able to do it.
Note 2: I should be around until about 5.15pm Central time, to answer comments/questions.
Update 4.47pm- I just want to say I am undecided, but split between Edwards and Obama.