Here I had been secretly complimenting myself on my insight into predicting who would be Hillary Clinton's likely running mate should she win the 2008 Democratic nomiination, and now this happens.
I had thought Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) would have been the next vice-president. Why?
- Hillary doesn't have it in her to pick anyone but a white man. She and her cautious aides will feel that asking America to select its first woman president is enough diversity to accept in one electoral gulp. No Richardson or Obama.
- Anyone from the Northeast is out. That's already solid Democratic territory; plus, being a NY senator, she will want to avoid a distinctly Northeast flavor to the ticket.
- Anyone from the South is out. The talent is thin, and, apologies to you 50-state strategy folks, but if the South can't elect a ticket with Gore or Edwards on it, they will not break that record for a Hillary Clinton even if she runs with the exhumed bones of Robert E. Lee. Jim Webb or Mark Warner would be interesting choices, but Virginia itself hasn't gone Democratic since 1964.
That leaves a white man, preferably under 60 years of age, with some political experience, from the Midwest or West, and a senator or governor to boot. I'd like to see Wes Clark (I voted for Clark in my state's 2004 presidential primary), but my sense is the Clinton people want a more seasoned politico.
Therefore, who steps forward as a likely candidate? The astonishingly safe and non-threatening senator Evan Bayh. BUT NOT ANYMORE.
This week, Congress attempted to pass its significant energy bill. It passed the House. It failed to reach 60 votes in the Senate. Five Republicans defected to support the bill, but that was not good enough. Three Democratic senators favored STOPPING the bill: Robert Byrd (D-WV) from coal country, Mary Landrieu (D-LA) from oil country, and Evan Bayh (D-IN) from ... WHERE? The land of lost hopes for the vice-presidency.
WHY did Bayh oppose this bill? Even Michigan's senators, usually tied tight to the automobile industry amd its long fight against fuel efficiency standards, gave up their longstanding hostility to the notion and supported this legislation.
I never was a Bayh fan, although it's not personal. I actually supported his father, Sen. Birch Bayh (D-IN) as my first choice for president in 1976! But Bayh the Younger continues to frustrate. He has several votes in favor of abolishing the estate tax in his past, but I thought he might get past that. But the energy bill vote is incomprehensible.
BYE BAYH!