Two new polls out this morning: a CNN poll from New Hampshire and a Field Poll from California. There's also an interesting study from the University of Washington studying the differences between people's stated candidate preferences and their unconscious preferences.
If you haven't read markw's heartfelt diary yet, please do. It likely won't change your mind, but you'll be glad to have read it.
New Hampshire:
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has surged ahead in New Hampshire in the latest poll, while Republican Mitt Romney has held onto his lead.
In a WMUR/CNN poll released earlier in the month, Barack Obama had moved within one point of Clinton, but the WMUR/CNN poll released Wednesday shows Clinton leading Obama 38 to 26 percent.
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Clinton was the only significant mover in the poll, with Obama sliding 4 points, John Edwards slipping 2 points to 14 percent and Bill Richardson climbing 1 point to 8 percent.
12/6-12/10: Clinton 31, Obama 30, Edwards 15, Richardson 7
Today's poll: Clinton 38, Obama 26, Edwards 13, Richardson 8
Clinton has the strongest support: 45% of her supporters have "definitely decided," compared to 29% for Obama and 27% for Edwards.
In a new development, Clinton led every age and income group. Obama usually does well with young people, but Clinton leads him 40-32 among the 18-34 crowd.
Here's who New Hampshire voters trust on the issues:
Likely Democratic primary voters were asked which candidate would do the best job handling important campaign issues. Clinton is seen as the candidate best able to handle all of the issues discussed.
When asked who would best handle the War in Iraq, 31% named Clinton followed by Obama (20%), Edwards (9%), and Richardson (8%). Similarly, 33% think Clinton would be beast able to handle terrorism followed by Obama (15%), Edwards (7%), Biden (7%), and Richardson (6%).
Looking at domestic issues, 40% think Clinton is best able to handle the economy followed by Obama (19%), Edwards (15%), and Richardson. Clinton is seen as being best able to handle health care (43%), followed by Obama (19%), Edwards (17%), and Richardson (4%). And 36% think Clinton is the candidate best able to handle Social Security followed by Obama (16%), and Edwards (11%).
By a narrow margin, Clinton is seen as the candidate best able to handle the environment (23%), followed by Obama (18%), Edwards (16%), and Richardson (10%).
California
In a sign that Californians are tapping into a presidential primary season largely playing out elsewhere, the race here between Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama has narrowed substantially since October, according to a Field Poll released Tuesday.
Clinton still holds a 14-point lead over fellow U.S. Sen. Obama among likely voters in the Democratic primary, 36 percent to 22 percent. But the margin between the two has dropped from the 25-point gap Field recorded just two months ago.
10/11-10/21: Clinton 45, Obama 20, Edwards 11, Undecided 14
Today's poll: Clinton 36, Obama 22, Edwards 13, Undecided 20
More analysis of California:
"There's no significant surge for Obama, it's just greater hesitancy amongst those who were formerly supporting Clinton," said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. But California Democrats are "not really moving to any one candidate, mainly going into the undecided column."
Clinton has stronger support as a nominee among her party's voters. And by a sizable margin, Democratic primary voters also say Clinton has the best chance of being elected president if she becomes the nominee.
Clinton maintains strong leads in key geographic regions - Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area - and is stronger with voters in every age group.
Obama gets more crossover support from Republicans - 47 percent say they would consider supporting him, versus just 20 percent who would support Clinton.
I have no idea what to make of this new study from the University of Washington:
Washington, Dec.19: A new national study of voters who say they might vote in Democratic primaries and caucuses shows a striking disconnect between their explicit and implicit preferences, according to University of Washington researchers.When asked who they would vote for, Barack Obama held a 42 percent to 34 percent margin over Hilary Clinton, while former senator John Edwards was placed third with 12 percent.
However, when the same people took an Implicit Association Test that measures their unconscious or automatic preferences, Clinton was the favoured candidate of 48 percent of the voters. Edwards was second with 27 percent and Obama had 25 percent.
Bethany Albertson, a UW assistant political science professor and Anthony Greenwald, a UW psychology professor and inventor of the Implicit Association Test, emphasized that their participants were not a representative sample of Democrats, but were self-selected volunteers who took an experimental test over the Web.
The data came from 926 people age 18 and over who took the test between October 16 and November 5. Of that total, 687 people said they might vote in the Democratic primaries.
The initial numbers from the survey don't really matter since it's simply volunteers rather than a representative sample, but what does the difference in IAT results tell us? Anyone know enough to weigh in?
And here are the Pollster graphs, which do not yet include these polls: