Yesterday, I wrote a diary about the latest series of SurveyUSA polling, which focused on the general election contests in midwestern states of Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
Today, SUSA releases an additional three polls testing general election trial heats. This time the focus is on the Western U.S.: New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington. With one Bush '04 state (NM) and a pair of Kerry '04 states (OR, WA), one would expect the Democrats to do well (although Oregon and Washington have significant conservative voting blocs in the eastern parts of both states).
Indeed, they do, and once again the "electability argument" is somewhat muddled. Follow me below the fold for the numbers.
NEW MEXICO
Clinton ahead of Giuliani 49-46, Huckabee 49-45, Romney 50-44, trails McCain 45-48.
Obama trails Giuliani 44-49, Huckabee 45-46, Romney 44-46, McCain 40-51
ANALYSIS: This has been a national bellwether the last four cycles, and went narrowly for Bush in 2004. Obama's numbers here, even when paired against Romney and Huck, are a little underwhelming. While Clinton leads on average by a margin of 2.5%, Obama trails by 4.8% on average. It would have been interesting to see what both Richardson AND Edwards would have polled here.
OREGON
Clinton ahead of Giuliani 50-42, Huckabee 50-42, Romney 51-40, tied w/McCain 46-46.
Obama ahead of Giuliani 50-40, Huckabee 51-40, Romney 50-38, McCain 46-44.
ANALYSIS: Here in the Northwest, Obama outperforms HRC, although not substantially. The average margin of victory for Obama is 8.8%, while it is 6.8% for Clinton. In both cases, this is good news for Democrats, who won here in 2000 by less than a percent, and then only by five percent in 2004. As with every other SUSA poll to date, has anyone noticed how McCain is CLEARLY the best general election candidate for the GOP?
WASHINGTON
Clinton ahead of Giuliani 52-43, Huckabee 54-41, Romney 55-41, McCain 49-47.
Obama ahead of Giuliani 55-38, Huckabee 55-37, Romney 57-35, McCain 50-43.
ANALYSIS: Here we see a market contrast between HRC and Obama, even though both dominate this state (other polls have shown it considerably closer). Clinton leads by an average of 9.5%, while Obama dominates by a healthy 16.0%. Again, McCain is the only GOPer with any traction here. The other "big Three" are getting crushed here by the Democrats.
As with all polls, there are the usual caveats to respect--it is early, the candidates are busy living in IA, NH, and SC--therefore their campaigning in these states has been limited. John Edwards, again, was not polled, and the Edwards people are convinced that he is the most electable general election candidate for the Democrats. Absent his inclusion in these polls, it is hard to know if they are right.
What can be said, as with yesterday's numbers, is that Democrats in general (despite the horrific 2007 performance of the Democratic Congress) still remained well positioned for next year's campaign for the White House.