War Down South?: The South American Arms Race
Sun Dec 23, 2007 at 12:12:52 PM PDT
For many years, South America has been a zone of negative peace, where it appeared that the military competition that had characterized the continent for much of this century had yielded to economic competition. It was living proof of the liberal belief that trade brings peace. To quote A.O. Hirschmann, the interests (commerce) had tamed the passions (conflict), and one of the most potent political arguments for capitalism was given physical form. Even the backlash against neo-liberalism at the beginning of this decade looked to accept the central premise that the world was a positive sum place, but the political underpinnings had to be moved to allow for economic justice.
In Venezuela, Chavez went after the oil companies.
In Argentina, working class piqueteros (lit. picketers) and middle class caceralazeros came together following the economic hardship of the banking freeze of Dec. 1 2001, converging into an immovable force that arose spontaneously as if organized by nature on Dec. 19 and 20 2001. 4 governments fell in as many weeks, and the absence of government action to provide the most basic neccesities of life to those dispossessed by the economy, the piqueteros and caceralazeros merged into an explosion of civil society. Workers occupied factories abandoned by their owners, and reopened them at a profit as collectives. The presumption of profit as the driving force for economic production was left outside with Menem and cronies. In this brave new world profit was meant to provide the means by which the end of human existence occurred, not become an end unto itself.
I realize that there was no choice but to do as was done. The problem I have is that civil society came to occupy what is rightfully the realm of government. This was open class warfare of the variety that occurred in the Spanish 2nd Republic, and it rarely ends well. The state exists to mediate and legitimate the resolution of conflict of classes in society, this is why it alone retains a legal monopoly on the used of force. Allow open class warfare to break out in society and soon the state itself becomes an object of competition between the classes. And the working class rarely wins that fight.
Nonetheless, for all the anarchy the economic collapse brought domestically, the regional peace held. With the exception of the 1995-96 war between Ecuador and Peru over a slice of territory that belonged to Ecuador before 1941, conflict was on the downturn. And regional weapons arsenals rapidly became to rust through disuse. This has changed.
In 2007, South America has seen a resurgence in arms purchases, and a dangerous game of power politics is developing in the region with uncertain alliances and rapidly shifting balances of power. On one hand there are nations deeply tied to the US and the world economy like Chile and Colombia. On the other are nations that reject US hegemony in the region, and seek a new world order in economics like Venezuela, and Bolivia. Hanging in the balance are nations like Brazil and Argentina who currently strive to remain neutral in the fight. But the two opposing camps are in the midst of an arms buildup.
First it was Venezuela, spending $4 billion on Russian fighter planes, Kalashnikovs and perhaps even submarines. Then it was Brazil, in August announcing a 53% increase in its military budget for 2008, the biggest such increase in more than a decade. The competition is still in the early stages but when two of Latin America's nouveau riche oil powers start splashing out on weapons, alarm bells ring over an arms race.
Indeed, Chavez's spending spree has given Brazil's long-dormant arms industry a bit of a political kick-start. Says Brazilian Senator Jose Sarney, a regular critic of Venezuela's president: "Hugo Chavez's armed forces have ordered 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles, 50 attack and transport helicopters, smart bombs, 24 Sukhoi Su-30 fighter planes. There is also talk of them buying nine submarines from Russia for $3 billion. It's very worrying. As Venezuela turns itself into a major military power, it obliges the other nations in South America to increase the power of their own forces. [An arms race] sadly seems to be getting under way."
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What the military build-up does, however, is give Chavez's Venezuela added prestige in the continental battle for political supremacy. Chavez has brought together South America's radical leftists under his socialist banner; while Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads a more measured coalition of social democrats. The two men are friends but both countries are getting used to being at the political and economic vanguard of South America. Military strength helps with that.
What's ironic about this is that blame is being laid primarily at the feet of Hugo Chavez and Venezuela, but the truth of the matter is more complex. The recent rise in commodity prices has meant that nations in which large parts of these industries are nationalized have seen massive increases in revenue. What's ironic is the the foremost beneficiary of this in Latin America has been Chile, for whom the rise in copper prices has opened the possibility of military preponderance in the region. In 2004, a Bolivian military report concluded that by 2010, the military power of Chile would exceed that of Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru. (La Razon Staff. 2004 "Bolivia: Armed forces warn government about Chile's arms build-up." La Razon. (Bolivia) May 6, 2004. Reported by BBC Worldwide Monitoring May 7, 2004.)
The recent surge in military expenditure particularly Chile and Venezuela has led to fears that South America might be involved in an arms race. However most experts feel that in spite of existing regional differences what is going on is a modernization process of the Armed Forces arsenals which are rapidly becoming obsolete.
Chile leads with annual expenditure to the tune of 3 billion US dollars funded mainly by the Copper bill, the country's main export, which earmarks 10% of the red metal earnings for the Armed Forces equipment. Chile so far has purchased F-16 fighter bombers, German Leopard 2 tanks (considered the best in the world) plus refurbished frigates for its surface fleet and two brand new submarines.
To get an idea of the effect that the increase in copper prices has had on the country, a 2007 article in Argentina's Clarin is informative.
To understand their (copper sales) importance by virtue of this law, the armed forces obtained more than $1.2 billion in the past year.
This point,which equals a little more than 10% of fiscal expenditures by the central government in 2006, marks a historic record: between 2000 and 2003 the transfers of Codelco to the military command averaged $250 million a year, which, thanks to good copper prices jumped to $598 million in 2004, and $826 million in 2005.
To place this in context:
Rank Country Mil. expend.(Million USD) Year
1 Brazil 9,940 2005
2 Chile 5,193 2007
3 Argentina 4,300 NA
4 Venezuela 4,000 2007
5 Colombia 3,300 NA
6 Ecuador 916 2007
7 Peru 829 2005
8 Uruguay 371 2005
9 Bolivia 130 2005
10 Paraguay 53 2003
This probably understates Chilean military power, because the quality of that countries weapons systems is considerably higher than others. Venezuela has been purchasing things like AK47s, while Chile has concentrated on tanks and planes. Rising commodity prices are only going to expand the ability of the Chilean armed forces to arm themselves, and further escalate the arms race in South America.
Bolivia looks to be on the verge of an outright civil war, with the Santa Cruz region declaring autonomy and flirting with independence. Chile has become tremendously dependent on Bolivia for natural gas, largely produced in this region, and Venezuela would likely back up Morales and the central government. There's a belief that Venezuela doesn't have the capacity to intervene in Bolivia, but if Argentina consents, Venezuelan forces could enter through that country. Planes and heavy material are somewhat harder to move, but again if Argentina consents, then many things become possible.
General war in South America involving state armed forces from Venezuela and Chile would reopen the doors to a world that liberals like to believe doesn't exist. And ironically, it's been the global economy that's allowed this arms race to occur altering the balance of power in the region.
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