'Racial undercurrent' - Hillary can't afford to alienate any more voters
Sun Dec 23, 2007 at 02:30:38 AM PDT
A piece in Sunday's Washington Post confirms what many people here have been discussing over the last month as Obama has crept up in the polls:
Racial Undercurrent Is Seen in Clinton Campaign
It has unfolded mostly under the radar. But an important development in the 2008 Democratic battle may be the building backlash among African Americans over comments from associates of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton that could be construed as jabs at Sen. Barack Obama's race.
These officials, including Clinton aides and prominent surrogates, have raised questions or dropped references about Obama's position on sentencing guidelines for crack vs. powder cocaine offenses; on his handgun control record; and on his admitted use of drugs as a youth. The context was always Obama's "electability." But the Illinois senator's campaign advisers said some African American leaders detect a pattern, and they believe it could erode Clinton's strong base of black support.
(more)
As the air has continued to gush out of the "inevitability" balloon, Clinton's steadily strong negatives among the general electorate and independent "swing voters," in particular, make her the weakest of the top three Dems in general election match-ups.
Saturday's Rasmussen Reports cover story (linked above) is headlined:
Clinton and Romney Have Highest Level of Core Opposition Among Leading Candidates
And in Clinton's case, her negatives dwarf those of the other leading Democrats and even of most of the Republicans, except for Romney, among the general electorate:
Among the leading Presidential candidates, New York Senator Hillary Clinton and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have the highest level of core opposition among voters. Forty-seven percent (47%) say they will vote against each of these candidates no matter who else is on the ballot.
In between, 42% will definitely vote against Giuliani, 38% against Edwards, 36% against Obama, 34% against Huckabee, 34% against Thompson.
...
Thirty percent (30%) will definitely vote for her and 29% will definitely vote for Obama. Edwards and Giuliani have core support from 23%, McCain from 22%, Thompson and Huckabee from 21%, and Romney from 19%.
On a net basis (core support minus core opposition), Obama (-7) and McCain (-11) come out on top. Giuliani (-19) and Romney (-28) have the weakest numbers on a net basis.
But, perhaps more ominously, Clinton's negatives among independents were even higher:
Results among voters not affiliated with either major party show that 48% would definitely vote against Clinton. That’s the highest level of core opposition among unaffiliated voters encountered by any of the candidates in the survey. Giuliani is close—44% of unaffiliated voters would definitely vote against him.
...
On a net basis, McCain (-6) and Obama (-11) have the best numbers among unaffiliated voters. Clinton (-26) and Romney (-20) have the weakest showing among this group.
The philosophy behind Clinton's DLC "centrism" focuses on capturing "the vital center" -- those swing voters who may go Republican or Democratic and can make or break a close election.
Well, by all indications, Hillary is failing miserably in that regard.
Clinton's problems are compounded by the fact that she is a known quantity. Her negative numbers have been stable for months, if not years. How many of these "I-definitely-will-NOT-vote-for-Hillary" folks is she likely to convert? She has to fight like hell just to make sure that she can keep all the rest or she gets pummeled (unless Romney is nominated, in which case, it's a toss-up).
So can she really afford to alienate African-American voters with her campaign's "We-didn't-know" attacks on Obama? Gee, remember when Bill Clinton was the "first black President?"
"Inevitable?"
"Most electable?"
Neither appear to be true. We'll know better in a few weeks, but the Clinton campaign's recent announcement that it will "embrace" the 1990s in these closing days makes me wonder if Hillary may reprise Bill's chosen campaign song of 1992.
Back then, the forward-looking anthem was Fleetwood Mac's "Don't Stop Thinkin' About Tomorrow." Perhaps Mick and the gang would recut it for her under a new title, "Don't Stop Thinkin' About Yesterday."
The "change agent" looks back in fondness. And Bill basks in the reflected glow. All of this nostalgia reminds of the typical Republican campaign nostalgia for the good ol' days when the coloreds knew their place. [NOTE: The Clinton campaign had no prior knowledge I was going to write that line. I am resigning, effective immediately, from Hillary for President.]
Good luck in the caucus and primaries, everyone!
