I left my home in New Mexico to spend the last week before the Iowa caucuses volunteering for the John Edwards campaign. I am stationed in Indianola, Iowa, population about 13,000, about twenty miles south of downtown Des Moines - which means about 15 miles of farmland between where Des Moines development ends and Indianola development begins. Indianola is pretty much a bedroom community for Des Moines, and as such is better off than most of rural Iowa. But this office covers 5 counties, most of which are typical of low-income, rural Iowa. I've been doing standard campaign stuff - phoning, preparing packets for canvassers, canvassing, etc.
Of course, we're all glued to the polls - this morning's Des Moines Register showed Edwards with a statistically insignificant lead over Obama and Clinton: 24 to 23 to 22. All the polls here are showing a dead heat, and who is leading depends upon which poll. The one thing that all the polls agree on is that the Edwards trajectory is clearly up, while the others are flat or declining.
The campaign is reporting that Edwards events are drawing huge, enthusiastic crowds. I went to an Edwards event yesterday evening in Knoxville, 25 miles east of here. Based on the fact that Knoxville is small (population 7,800), largely Republican, and has been trending among Democrats towards Clinton (the County Dem. Chair has been campaigning for Clinton for months), turnout was expected to be about 150. Based on the number of chairs that were set out and filled (280) and at least 50 people standing, Edwards staffers literally had their jaws drop at the size of the crowd.
I timed the speech and counted the number of times that applause forced Edwards to either pause or raise his voice. In 23 minutes, he was interrupted 11 times, with many other instances of lesser applause. My personal favorite among the applause lines (and this is a paraphrase): "No corporate CEO is any better than any of you." The crowd gave him a standing ovation at the end of the formal talk, and then again at the conclusion of the 25-minute Q&A session. Incredibly, among those standing and applauding were at least fifteen Republicans who came to the talk and have told former Kossack AnthonySF that they intend to change their registration to caucus for Edwards.
Every evening in the Indianola office, we tally up the results of our phone calling and canvassing. The most significant number is this: when we look at the likely caucus-goers who told the campaign in the past that they were undecided and who are now committing to a candidate, 60% are committing to Edwards. Since the 40% who are committing to others are split among Clinton, Obama, and others (Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich), this is a truly significant movement towards Edwards.
Last week - before I left New Mexico - I heard the talking heads on Meet the Press say that Obama and Clinton are worried about Edwards in Iowa rather than each other. From what I've seen, in terms of organization, enthusiasm of volunteers, and response of Iowans, they have reason to be worried.
Edwards' stump speech talks a lot about corporate control and the need for a president who feels in his gut the need to take on the corporations and political powers - but I repeat myself - that have been running the country, as opposed to one who has figured out in his head that it's important to say that. He definitely speaks with passion, and we can all hope that he speaks with real commitment, because if he can turn the enthusiasm he is generating in Iowa into a national force, we may yet have someone to vote for rather than against in a presidential election.