Let me explain what they want
Sun Feb 04, 2007 at 12:02:25 AM PDT
[hello and welcome to readers of theoildrum.com]
I saw a diary the other day asking "what do they want?". Simply put: why are Bush/Cheney et al doing what they are doing when all obvious logic dictates that any of a list of possible goals would be better achieved with other courses of action. Predictably much of the commentary was taken up with suggestions that they are intrinsically evil people who just want to control things... which actually sorta missed the point of the question I think - which was that surely there is a better explanation than that.
There is. It is frightening. Not enough people talk about it seriously enough. One part of me even likes it this way as I feel it buys me more time to prepare my own exit plans. I just thought I'd turn my comment into a diary to get a feel for who may actually have any awareness of this sort of thing yet, on here.
The reason: They want to survive. They understand Peak Oil better than you. They understand its true implications - the die off. They are planning to do whatever they can to help their elite make it through. What are you doing for your family?
Peak Oil. Survival.
Bush and his cabal are oil people. They know a thing or two about the oil business - regardless of personal success or otherwise in profitable business decisions.
They have known for a long time about Hubbert's Peak and Peak Oil. They have had time to think it through while it was barely on the radar screen of even the most thoughtful lay person.
Peak Oil is frightening because of the consequences and the general public's basic misunderstanding of where the threat lies in a world without oil. And that is what we are talking about. In 100 years we have used up more than half the world's total oil. Some believe we have passed the peak, others that we'll do so within 5-8 years. None knowledgeably predict a much later date.
This leads to an assumption the world's oil runs out in around 2050. Except the truth is that the crunch will come much sooner - the oil left is the hardest and most expensive to get to. Supply will falter. Major powers will fight over control. Shocks and dislocations will happen much earlier that will wake up the world to the problem, shatter the economy and in turn prevent much of the production being fulfilled and distributed.
So why the big worry? Well it isn't just automotive. Let's grant the technologists a win on that one even (though not really likely globally in time). It isn't the air travel - though the physics just don't allow you to replace petrochemicals as you can in a car - its a thermodynamics problem. But let's say we can get by without air travel. It is the food.
Virtually all of the world's food production is dependent on fertilizers based on oil and natural gas products. Without these chemicals food production collapses.
The world's sustainable population with pre-oil technologies was about 1-1.5billion. It is over 6billion today. Given that there isn't the old farming techniques, land and capacity available to shift back to these methods (and modern fertalizers having made much of the land infertile to these methods), and given that modern societies do not have everyone living within walking distance of food production, experts predict that under a collapse the planet is more likely going to be able to feed only about 500million people. Again there are 6 billion today, roughly.
How do you get there from here? A lot of people dying. Imagine 95% of the world dying and you are close to the mark.
And what do you think happens to a society during things like that?
The elites on behalf of whom Bush/Cheney work have figured this out. And their view is that those that get to survive are likely to be those that can gather the most resources in advance of fighting for survival. This is why they concentrate wealth in the hands of a few. This is why they continue an official policy of trying to seize control of oil resources to provide as long a lifeline as possible to prepare before the US collapses.
Why wouldn't rewarding those that already had most in society with more be the best way of choosing winners from losers in this? If your view is that financial means are the rewards for being a superior person in every way, as our society has come to view such things in every practical way?
These people are preparing the lifeboats. Only there ain't going to be many of them.
Sure, we'll pray for a miracle - science to the rescue. We'll fight to control resources as long as possible to allow the numbed masses to stay deluded for a bit longer. But make no bones about it a dark night is coming. And these people expect to be the ones with the torches.
I think that makes far more sense than just people being bad and evil for the sake of it. If you have to resort to nonsense explanations like 'they are just megalomaniacs who want to control things with no real end' then you are probably wrong. I am glad the question is asked. I wish more people would instead of falling back on cheap digs at serious people.
Personally - I am transitioning into the lifeboat building business. Anyone care to join me?
...Global warming...pah...real men have restless nights over Peak Oil...
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