Defeating Fred Thompson
Thu Mar 15, 2007 at 06:21:31 PM PDT
The possibility of former Senator Fred Thompson jumping into the 2008 for President has been discussed here and elsewhere. The idea has evoked a mixture of speculation, apprehension and bravado over the possibility and what it means to Democrats.
For myself, considering that presidents are still elected based mainly on perceived personality, I think that Mr. Thompson represents the single best hope for the GOP to hold on to the White House, and the single biggest threat to Democrats' '08 hopes.
But he's not unbeatable. More after the jump.
Fred Thompson has a number of things going for him:
- Name recognition
- "Hero" persona from his movie and TV appearances, including an image as a military leader
- A no-nonsense, "genuine" affectation
- Conservative street cred
- Experience in government
Plus, if he gets a good campaign manager who has the competence to define Thompson with moderate-sounding speeches, policy promises and proposals, he might be able to pull a "George Dubya" and fool enough of the people for enough of the time to get the White House.
Thompson's main advantages tie heavily into the kind of characters he's played on TV and in the movies. Hell, I've really liked his appearances in such movies as "Hunt for Red October". His greatest strength is the impression that he's a genuine leader of good judgement.
But from this strength comes a weakness: Fred Thompson is an actor. By definition, he knows how to fool people. How genuine is he really? Who can tell?
More importantly, Fred Thompson is a former Senator. As we saw with John Kerry, it is simplicity itself to use a Senator's voting record against him. And when you're trying to establish your bona fides based upon an impression that you're genuine, inconsistency and the sense that you are (dare we say it) a "flip-flopper" could very well be the kiss of death.
But it gets potentially worse for Thompson. If today's missive is any indicator, a "Fred" administration would be nothing more nor less than a continuation of what we have right now. He's literally more of the same -- a wholehearted embrace of policies that have dragged the current White House occupant permanently below the 40% approval mark. What's more, that occupant is a guy who talks a good game ("compassionate conservatism" -- what a wonderful idea) and projected a "genuine" image and yet turned out to be utter crap: a deeply dishonest, incompetent, extremist leader with little regard for the good of the nation.
Combine that with Sen. Thompson's backing of Scooter Libby, and it becomes pretty easy to hang the "Bush" albatross around Thompson's neck. That's a weight that might even hurt him with conservatives.
I see a pattern emerging, and one that counters Thompson's greatest strength head on.
Fred Thompson is a threat. But his strengths also make him vulnerable. It's important to keep that in mind, and not hesitate to use it if (I believe "when") he gets the GOP presidential nod.
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