Well, just two days of campaigning left in the British election. It is not a good day to be a Tory in Britain.
More below the jump...
How is it that in two weeks the Conservatives went from a near-tie with Labour (meaning a heavily diminished Labour majority was in order) to being, in more Labour-friendly polls, 10 points down? Part of it is Michael Howard, the Conservative leader, whose negativity has turned off most Britons. Part of it is that Tony Blair, as always, has mastered the art of issue-framing, and has made the election not a referendum on Iraq, but a return to the economy and health care, issues that swept Labour into office in 1997, and issues that traditionally benefit Labour (as well as Democrats in the U.S. -
hint hint, Dems!).
And part of it is the Liberal Democrats, who may actually be taking almost as many votes from the Conservatives as they are from Labour.
So, everybody knows that barring a major upset (which is possible - in 1992, for example, the Tories managed a surprise win), Tony Blair and his center-left Labour party will still be in power come May 6 (or, as Britons say it, 6 May). What majority they have depends on who you ask.
Some polls indicate a huge Labour majority in the next Commons, approaching 150. Electoral Calculus, an online site using mathematical calculations to predict the results of the election, currently shows the following:
Labour - 394 seats (a loss of 9 from 2001)
Conservatives - 166 seats (a gain of 1 from 2001)
Liberal Democrats - 57 seats (a gain of 6 from 2001)
Scottish Nationals/Plaid Cymru - 10 seats (a gain of 2 from 2001)
This means a Labour majority of 142. But since polls in Britain famously overestimate Labour and underestimate the Tories, so I'll go with a less comfortable result, perhaps a Labour majority of ~100 or less.
Other people tout polls that show the popular vote close (one released today shows a 36-33 Labour lead), and say that Labour's majority could be below 100. Still others predict a major upset in the popular vote that leads to a Labour minority government.
And of course, there is another possibility which could severely diminish Labour's performance. Voters may be so sure of a big Labour majority that they stay home and allow the Conservatives to make big gains.
Again, though, the prospects are bleak for Michael Howard and his pro-business, Thatcherite cronies. Electoral Calculus was showing fair Tory gains, as many as 12 seats, just two weeks ago, and now shows a net gain for the Tories of a single seat (mostly due to Lib Dem takeovers in currently Conservative seats). What's more, the British electoral system is biased toward Labour because 1) Labour votes tend to be more concentrated, and 2) Labour seats tend to be smaller and more urban. So, even if the Tories managed a 35-35 tie with Labour in the popular vote on May 5, Labour would have a majority of 30 to 40 seats.
The question is not which party will control the next Commons, or who the next prime minister will be. The interesting question is how big Labour's majority will be, and what the future political balance of Britain will be.