Should Democrats be worried about the MA-05 special election?

This September, there will be a special election held this September to replace Democratic Rep. Marty Meehan, who is resigning to become President of Lowell University.  There are several Democratic candidates running including the wife of the late Senator Paul Tsongas who represented this district from 1975 to 1979.  The district is solidly Democratic.  It gave John Kerry 58% of the vote as he was losing nationwide, has a PVI of D+11 and only 13% of its registered voters are Republican.

However, the state and national Republican party seem to think that they can capture the seat.  According to former Congressman Charlie Bass, who now heads the Republican Main Street Coalition, Republicans should try to win this special election in order to tell people that they are on the road back to a majority.  http://www.boston.com/...

One potential Republican candidate is Fred Smerlas, a very right wing former New England patriot.  He currently hosts a radio show in the state and seems to be leaning towards a run for the seat.  I personally believe that he would have very little chance of even coming close to winning in this solidly blue district.  It seems like Republicans think they can start their comeback here.  It is our job to make sure that they hit a brick wall.

We need to make sure that he or whichever Republican runs here does not get more than 35% of the vote.  The way to do this would be for the Democratic nominee to tie the Republican to Bush at every turn saying that they would be another rubber stamp for Bush.  Expose their support of the troop escalation, expose their position on stem cell research, a woman's right to choose, and the minimum wage.  This race will show us if Republicans have gained any momentum.  Even Bass says this race is a "canary in a coalmine"

•  I just recommended,

  Special elections, etc. are a best opportunities for the blogs.

  by LunkHead on Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 09:25:18 PM PDT

•  Pppphhhhhffftttt!!!!!!!

  [...clean beer off computer screen...]

  Ok, that's better...

  Fred Smerlas!!!!  If that's the best the Massachusetts
  Republican party can do, and I wouldn't be surprised, I'm not worried.

  Freddie should stick to scalping tickets outside of Gilette Stadium.

  by jjhalpin on Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 09:25:35 PM PDT

  •  Oh Freddie, please run... :-)

    Fred Smerlas

    You'd make a great Republican candidate! :-)

    An investigation by WCVB-TV's 11-o'clock news, which aired on February 25, 2007 revealed that Smerlas's company All Pro Productions is the leading telemarketer contracter for police, firefighter, and similar agencies in Massachusetts. The investigation alleges that All Pro Productions' telemarketers misidentify themselves as police officers and apply pressure tactics to obtain donations. Further, it was noted that the company, on average, keeps 63% of the money donated while only 37% goes to the charities. In a telephone converation, Smerlas defended his telemarketers saying "they identify themselves", "are monitored", and "read from scripts" although he refused to provide a script. He also claimed that "60% is reasonable" given telemarketing costs.[

    by jjhalpin on Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 09:31:34 PM PDT

•  Now it looks as if

  Republican Lawrence Mayor Mike Sullivan has set up an exploratory committee to possibly run.  If he does run, Dems need to point out that he is no moderate and would be a reliable Bush supporter.

  by UpstateDem on Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 09:30:12 PM PDT

•  i hope they do challange

  and spend millions and millions there...cause we can spend 50 bucks and kick their asses in that district

  by New Frontier on Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 09:33:12 PM PDT

•  Freddie has said so many

  massively stupid things, it'd be hard to know where to start.  I listen to way too much WEEI and Fred's ramblings on topics that are not football are incoherent.  You can hear his cohosts rolling their eyes.

  Wasn't April Fool's Day a couple of weeks ago?

  by klondike on Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 09:48:09 PM PDT

•  GA-10.

    The races are pretty much equal, yet opposite.  GA-10 could be a canary in the coal mine too.  The only difference is that the Georgians do elect Democrats at the local level, but Massachusetts(ers?) don't elect Republicans at all.  The last Republican congressman from Massachusetts left office in 1996.  He was a one-term wonder.  The Red Staters seem to think they have a shot at the Massachusetts - they're not paying attention to the Georgia race.

  by redrelic17 on Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 09:54:23 PM PDT

  •  I would agree on GA-10

    Both very similar extremes.  Dems should have a better chance in GA-10 than Reps do in MA-05 simply because of the national environment with a very unpopular Republican President and war.

    by UpstateDem on Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 09:59:28 PM PDT

  •  I believe the term is Massholes...

    Massachusetts does elect Republicans, but usually in an executive role to balance power between the legislature and executive branch (eg Romney, and Weld). However, Smerlas probably does not have a prayer. The right wing noise machine seems to be ramping up here in Massachusetts. WEEI is sports talk, but has taken on a right wing slant and has moved the Sox games to WRKO a hard right talk station. Additionally, TKK 96.9 serves up O'Reilly, Hannity, Graham, etc. I worry about WEEI. It seems like the wingnuttiness is increasing daily...and here in Massachusetts WEEI is almost impossible to tune off because of our love for the beloved Sox.

    by Marshvegas on Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 10:10:20 PM PDT

•  No. n/t

  by TrueBlueMajority on Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 10:37:40 PM PDT

•  Also Dems need to avoid a blood bath in the

  Primaries and get behind whoever the choose early and with ready cash/volunteers etc.

  How are Ms Tsongas chances?
  What does she do?
  How old are her kids?

  by wuod kwatch on Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 11:32:45 PM PDT

•  A republican can win that seat no problem

  depending on who counts the votes.

  I would suggest you check who supervises your elections and what machines the voters will use.

  by Last Lemming on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 12:33:21 AM PDT