The NY Times conducted a poll recently that shows the people most gung-ho about the war in Iraq are under the age of 30. Apparently this happens with every war, including Vietnam. The young support it far more than those who have experienced wars, even though it is the young who fight and die.
The statistics: 48% of those 18-29 support the invasion of Iraq while 45% think it was a mistake. In stark contrast, only 28% of those over 65 support the invasion, while 67% think it was a mistake.
What does this mean? And how should those opposed to the war respond? Two thoughts: 1) this is very, very good news for the 2008 elections. 2) strategies for swaying more of public opinion should aim more squarely at those under 30, but don't expect much. More below.
As your age goes up, your likelihood of supporting the war and the administration goes down. Old folks like to vote, and young folks don't. Put those two facts together, and good things happen. This helps explain why the Democrats were able to win so many contested races against incumbents in 2006. Going forward, the Democratic advantage at the voting booth will be stronger than it appears in general public opinion polls. Since support for the war keeps slipping, this means 2008 could be a far greater bloodbath (metaphorically) for the Republicans than 2006.
But what of all those (mostly) non-voting kids who still think invading a nation without an imminent threat was a good idea? How can they be reached? Back in the run-up to the war, I taught Just War Theory to college students. I gave the administration's position as fair a hearing as I could, but I made it clear that the conditions had not been met. There was no evidence of imminent attack. Students mostly yawned, or made up new standards for "imminent attack" (and "evidence") to justify their belief that war was justified.
What's behind this is no mystery. At its heart is a simplistic desire to "get back" at the world that harmed us and made us feel impotent. We all feel it, but the young feel it more strongly (think of a child's rage...if an adult acts that way we call the police or a psychiatrist). Couple this with an utter ignorance of, and contempt for, history and you have most of the explanation for why they embrace wars of aggression.
I had thought that all these 18-29 year-olds were watching the Daily Show and learning a deep contempt for the war. I was wrong. I was also wrong to think that I could teach them why Just War Theory developed the way it did so that they saw its wisdom. And that's the problem. 18 year-olds, as a rule, have no wisdom, only yearning and a desire to assert themselves.
If I were in a position today to reach people under 30 who support the war, I would put greater emphasis on one thing: we don't need to invade nations, destroy regimes and kill thousands to be strong, or proud, or have the world respect us. As obvious as it is (even a young person will grant the general point), it's a hard sell. Because killing and destroying are easy-to-see displays of power to an 18 year old, while diplomacy, cultural exchange and economic revitalization are not.
Over time, as this age cohort gets older and starts voting more, they'll also be getting more disaffected about the war. Even if in some sense we "win," it will be a thin victory. The middle-east will still be a mess, and those countries that are becoming more democratic will be doing it not because of Iraq, but internal developments and the use of soft power (Dubai is a case in point, Iran may be one soon). We will all look at Iraq and say: we lost thousands of lives, killed hundreds of thousands, and spent over a trillion dollars for this? And that's if we "win."
If we "lose," the world will not end. Just as the dominoes did not fall in Asia after Vietnam, the Middle East will not collapse into chaos. Iraq will, probably, for a while. Nearby nations will have to get involved, but not in a way that threatens the world order. Not really. As the US heel gets off the chest of the middle east, those nations will find a way to turn from America-hating to economic development, just as other parts of the world have done. And that is what will eventually bring stability, not US hegemony.
Meanwhile, those who are 18-29 today will be paying for the Iraq war for the rest of their lives. They will come to see it as a thousand small errors and misdeeds that created one giant mistake.