1968 and 2008 (Pt. 1): Gore, Nixon, and Romney
Wed Apr 18, 2007 at 09:08:25 PM PDT
I have been working my way through Theodore H. White's The Making of the President 1968, and it is impossible not to notice some uncanny similarities to our current presidential contest. There are broad historical parallels that derive from the political climates created by the war in Vietnam and the U.S. occupation of Iraq. And there are amusing coincidences.
Some of the failed candidates vying for their party's 1968 nomination included a Republican Mayor of New York; a Senator from Illinois, "bright, eager, handsome...vibrantly attractive to young voters;" and even a Mormon candidate -- a hapless Republican named Romney. But beyond these superficial analogs to the candidates of 2008, some profound resonances, consequences of larger forces, may be lurking.
This post, the first in a series, will focus on Richard Nixon's early strategy following the Republican gains of 1966, and what that comeback campaign by a former vice president could reveal about a theoretical Al Gore candidacy in 2008.
Between 1965 and 1968, the failures of Vietnam destroyed the presidency of Lyndon Johnson. The writing was already on the wall in 1966 when Republicans picked up 47 seats in the House and three in the Senate. Theodore White portrays Nixon, who had exited politics after losing the 1960 presidential election, and again, after losing the California governor's race in 1962, as already contemplating another presidential run as early as 1965, but Nixon was in no hurry to formally announce.
White sets the stage:
"Events are in the saddle and ride mankind" was to become one of the favorite intellectual observations on the campaign of 1968, as men in trouble recalled learning and quoted Ralph Waldo Emerson. [...]
Events were to ride American politics all through the years of Lyndon Johnson's administration, down, finally, to election day of 1968. Events were to reduce the personalities of candidates in the soul-searching of the year 1968 to marionettes; events were to shake America's confidence in it's own self and purpose; events were to kill 35,000 American men in Vietnam; events were to convert the greatest mandate, the greatest personal triumph on any election year, that of 1964, to the greatest personal humiliation of any sitting president. [...]
...the vulnerability of Lyndon Johnson, even at his zenith in 1965 was already quite clear to Richard M. Nixon, the next President of the United States, as he observed rivals within his own party and considered the stance that might give that shattered and humiliated group of men, the Republicans, an opportunity to offer alternative national leadership.
The early favorite for the Republican nomination was George W. Romney, Governor of Michigan, who was, yes, the father of varmint hunter extraordinaire, Mitt Romney. White writes that George Romney's greatest strength was his appearance, the cut of his jib:
...above all, he looked like a President. Handsome, silver-haired, robust, masculine, smiling or stern, he seemed cast for the part by Hollywood's Central Casting.
But his problem was a lack of substance. In February 1966, David Broder wrote of Romney:
...if the Michigan executive has a major weakness today, it is probably his fuzziness on national and international issues.
Nixon's strategy for winning the nomination was the consequence of his own unique political history and the mood of the electorate, already demoralized by the incompetence of our nation's leaders.
At one point Nixon asserted that he could not be re-packaged by any public-relations officer, no matter how skillful. That might work for a new man, but not with him. He would persist in his six-month personal moratorium of all discussion of politics as he traveled the world for Reader's Digest. There would be a Nixon campaign, thus -- but Nixon would not be in it until the time was ripe. For the moment, let the nation pay attention to George Romney. "I want him to get the exposure," said Nixon, "we have to keep him out at the point." The man who had been so thoroughly savaged by reporter and cartoonists over the years wanted their full talents for destruction concentrated on the personality of George Romney.
(Incidentally, Nixon's Reader Digest sojourns were intended to "reinforce his image on the American mind as a master of foreign affairs," without the necessity of Nixon's direct involvement in politics.)
The parallels to Al Gore's current situation are obvious. That is not to suggest that Gore is planning a presidential run using Nixon's nomination strategy (although it is possible). Rather, it does suggest that the larger historical forces at play in 2008 may be favorable to Gore, particularly since his personal political history tracks so closely to Nixon's.
The important questions are:
What aspects of the political mood in 1968 helped Nixon capture the nomination (and the presidency), and are those the same qualities that would favor Gore this time around? Did Nixon's unpolished "authenticity" give him a leg up for the nomination due to the climate created by Vietnam? Was it his experience in national governance combined with his exile from politics that made the difference?
Any of these factors could be relevant to the success of a Gore campaign in 2008. And if the former vice president is not planning a comeback, perhaps he should at least consider it. The tides of history may be moving in his favor this time.
DISCLAIMER: I am, of course, not comparing Al Gore's policy positions or political philosophy to Richard Nixon's. Nor am I suggesting that the Democrats need Gore to win in 2008. They do not.
All unlinked quotes are from Theodore H. White's The Making of the President 1968.
cross-posted at mydd and ProgressiveHistorians
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