New York State Senate Registration Trends (w/Maps)

(Cross-posted at The Albany Project)

With Democrats only two seats away from a majority in the New York Senate (with LG David Patterson casting the deciding vote), the fight over the 2008 Senate becomes increasingly critical.  We have two elections remaining before the next redistricting.  New York Republicans must realize that a Democratic-controlled redistricting in 2011 would spell disaster for them both in the State Senate and in the New York Congressional delegation.  I prepared the following maps from the

Apr. 2007 Voter Enrollment Stats and the

Jun. 2002 Voter Registration Stats

If you'd like a copy of the Excel file I prepared these from, email me at ortcutt (at) gmail.

First, these are the seats that the Democrats and Republicans hold.

Senate Seats by Party Control

Second, the following maps show the gap between Democratic and Republican registration as on April 1st, 2007.  More deeply saturated colors indicate a bigger gap.

Apr. 1st, 2007 Registration Gap

Last, the following maps show the change in the registration gap from Jun. 2002 (the earliest report for the current districts) to Apr. 2007.  I didn't make a key for the maps, but to give some indication of the degree of change, in NYS-06, the district which moved the most in favor of the Democrats, the gap narrowed by 5.38 percentage points.

Change in Registration Gap 6/02-4/07

The trends are good all over the place.  Long Island, Hudson Valley, Syracuse and Rochester in particular have positive trendlines.

•  Tip Jar (n/t)

  by ortcutt on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:12:39 PM PDT

  •  I wish we saw more of this around here. n/t

    by andgarden on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:19:04 PM PDT

  •  you should add this post was

    front paged at the albany project. why? 'cuz this shit is dope.

    "after the Rapture, we get all their shit"

    It's time: the albany project.

    by lipris on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 04:22:15 PM PDT

•  What is the House like?

  How many of these have old Republicans or crazy right wing Republicans in moderate districts?

  by Blue South on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:18:11 PM PDT

  •  More than a few

    There are a bunch of 75+-aged Republicans.  I'm not sure if they're crazy right-wingers but they are certainly Republicans loyalists.

    by ortcutt on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:22:42 PM PDT

    •  hopefully

      yall can get some help from a few retirements

      by Blue South on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:30:03 PM PDT

•  I can explain this

  It's because all of the NY republican wingnuts are moving down here to Georgia!

  by CCSDem on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:23:40 PM PDT

  •  Well

    I'd say it's more a case of Rockefeller Republicans realizing that they're either Democrats or Independents.

    by ortcutt on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:29:46 PM PDT

    •  Just kidding

      but what is the actual count (GOP v Dem) in the House and Senate? How much of this change took place in '06? Did the Spitzer and HRC campaigns contribute to/cause this movement?

      by CCSDem on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:34:43 PM PDT

      •  Legislature Makeup

        Senate (29 Democrats, 33 Republicans)
        Assembly(105 Democrats, 42 Republicans, 1 Ind, 2 Vacant)

        Democrats gained one Senate seat (NYS-35) in 2006, and another Senate seat (NYS-07) in a Special Election this year.

        Democrats have such a huge advantage in the Assembly, that I'm not sure that anyone pays attention.

        by ortcutt on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:42:18 PM PDT

        •  It was nice

          to contribute my little chunk to Craig's campaign knowing that the collective DKos cash would help put him over the top. I was actually dumbfounded by that first map. I would have thought more of the districts closer to the city would be blue. Perhaps they will be,  particularly 41, wink, wink.

          Great work, btw, it's always nice to see graphically what's going on. Thank you.

          by justme on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 05:29:32 PM PDT

  •  And Florida

    Florida too, Naples, Fort Myers area

    by nrafter530 on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:43:11 PM PDT

  •  I'm so sorry

    Georgia is about the only state in the Union (other than Louisiana) that is getting more Republican.

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 03:11:14 PM PDT

    •  Makes you wonder what country those

      people are living in.

      by AUBoy2007 on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 03:15:37 PM PDT

•  Going blue in 2008

  Unless Giuliani is the nominee, I don't see anything stopping us from taking the State Senate. NY HATES BushCo and will be chomping at the bit to send a Democrat to the White House. This cannot be good news either for Peter King, among others.

  by RandyMI on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:34:12 PM PDT

  •  If Democrats take the State Senate...

    King is gone by 2012, if not sooner.

    The only thing that would keep us from taking the Senate in 2008 is political apathy.  If NYS politicians and activists don't work on these campaigns and raise a lot of dough, then it's not going to happen.  There were a lot of Democratic challengers in 2006 who were woefully underfunded.  

    by ortcutt on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:46:43 PM PDT

    •  King and all the rest

      King will be gone as will be Kuhl, Walsh and Fossella if they survive, meanwhile Gillibrand and Hall will be made safer, providing they survive until then as well.

      by nrafter530 on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:50:21 PM PDT

      •  That's the plan

        That's why these two State Senate seats are so important.

        There are six remaining Republican congressmen.

        King (NY-03)
        Fossella (NY-13)
        McHugh (NY-23)
        Walsh (NY-25)
        Reynolds (NY-26)
        Kuhl (NY-29)

        Undoing Republican gerrymandering could take that down to 2 or 3.

        by ortcutt on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:54:34 PM PDT

    •  Somehow I don't think

      A certain Mr. Spitzer will tolerate that. He seems to have a talent for whipping folks into line.

      by RandyMI on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:51:14 PM PDT

      •  How come he didn't do that in 06?

        I mean, I know he was also running, but a frequent criticism is that he did not help lower ticket candidates.

        It's not like he wasn't shoe-in.

        I'm surprised that with Hillary's big win, his big win, along with a few switches in Congressional Seats, that we couldn't pick up the 4/5 seats needed to win the Senate.

        by AUBoy2007 on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 03:08:41 PM PDT

        •  Well

          Now that he is acually Governor, he's been flexing his muscle. I recall, during the special election on Long Island, one Democratic official was misbehaving. The next day, he was on the stage with Spitzer and the candidate.

          by RandyMI on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 03:12:00 PM PDT

        •  Very true

          2006 was a real missed opportunity.

          by ortcutt on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 03:13:25 PM PDT

•  NYSenate-27

  What's up with the 27th district. The GOP registration grew that much? That's kind of surprising.

  That's the seat of Carl Krueger who represents a huge Russian and Jewish constituency in Brighton Beach and Midwood, Brooklyn. Are they suddenly turning Republican, or has the Republican registration gone from like 0%-20% and it's nothing to worry about.

  Also, I live in district 15, Republican Serphin Maltese. The district is very Italian-American, was Gotti Central back in the 80's. He was supported by the local Democratic Party. Even then, Maltese barely held on 51%-49%.

  The 15th district is the biggest pickup opportunity if the Democrats even want it.  If we can pick off my seat, and one more on Long Island, the State Senate will be tied 31-31 with Democratic Lt. Governor David Paterson casting the tie-breaking vote.

  by nrafter530 on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:49:07 PM PDT

  •  NYS-27

    It's still a very Democratic district, just somewhat less so.  Something to think about, but not too much to worry about in terms of losing the seat.

    Apr. 2007

    Democratic: 89,532 (60.91%)
    Republican: 24,416 (16.61%)
    Blank: 29,858 (20.31%)

    Jun. 2002

    Democratic: 95,210 (64.23%)
    Republican: 22,566 (15.22%)
    Blank: 27,194 (18.35%)

    by ortcutt on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 02:59:23 PM PDT

  •  NYS-15

    The only thing that Democrats need to win NYS-15 is a big turnout push.  It's certainly going to help that it's a Presidential election year.

    by ortcutt on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 03:05:21 PM PDT

•  This time next year...

  ...please post a diary simply listing, in probability order, which State Senate seats have the best chance to go Democratic, so I know where to send my limited donations and volunteer time.

  Even though I'm moving out of state in 2008, I'd still love to help NY Dems take the State Senate—that so-and-so Bruno has been blocking needed legislation for twenty years I think.

  by ibonewits on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 03:06:24 PM PDT

  •  It ain't just Bruno

    Shelly Silver, despite running as a Democrat, is just as bad.

    by milkbone on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 04:15:42 PM PDT

    •  So NY Dems have to clean house too

      (so to speak). I'm not surprised.

      It sure would be nice to give Gov. Spitzer a progressive majority in both chambers...

      by ibonewits on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 05:03:32 PM PDT

•  Boss Bruno's computer guys

  must work 24/7 to find a way to create four Republican Senate districts in NYC.

  Aside from Staten Island, the other districts (especially 22) mock the ideal of "compact and contiguous."

  22 is the strangest-looking district I've seen in a long time, maybe ever.

  But, unless Giuliani somehow wins the GOP nomination, Boss Bruno will lose his majority next year.

  by devtob on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 03:16:19 PM PDT

•  OT: CA Legislature

  I have no data to back this up but my gut tells me Republicans may make gains here in 2008. The CDP does not seem well prepared.

  by RandyMI on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 03:19:33 PM PDT

•  Ulster, Sullivan aren't as red as they used to be

  And the suburbs are turning as well.  Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester are changing as well.  $15,000 property taxes for small houses in those three counties surely aren't making the 'Pubs popular.

  by Dcoronata on Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 04:51:40 PM PDT