Daily Kos

What The Winograd Report Doesn't Say

Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:34:23 PM PDT

Monday saw the interim publication of the long-awaited (or, in Olmert’s case, long-dreaded) Winograd Committee report (the full version isn’t due for five months). It basically concluded what everyone already knew - that the war on Lebanon was entered into with misguided expectations about a quick, easy victory over Hizbullah and was handled incompetently from start to finish.

  • ‘The decision to respond with an immediate, intensive military strike was not based on a detailed, comprehensive and authorized military plan, based on careful study of the complex characteristics of the Lebanon arena’
  • ‘Consequently, in making the decision to go to war, the government did not consider the whole range of options, including that of continuing the policy of ‘containment’, or combining political and diplomatic moves with military strikes below the ‘escalation level’, or military preparations without immediate military action’
  • ‘The support in the cabinet for this move was gained in part through ambiguity in the presentation of goals and modes of operation, so that ministers with different or even contradictory attitudes could support it.’
  • Some of the declared goals of the war were not clear and could not be achieved, and in part were not achievable by the authorized modes of military action.’
  • ‘The Prime Minister did not adapt his plans once it became clear that the assumptions and expectations of Israel’s actions were not realistic and were not materializing.’

I’ll leave for now the question of what Israel’s true objectives were in invading Lebanon - suffice to say, the official claim that it was an attempt to rescue two captured soldiers doesn’t withstand even the briefest scrutiny. Indeed, a top Israeli military commander, Gadi Eisenkott, recently admitted that it became clear that the two soldiers could not be recovered through military means after only "a couple of hours".

What the Winograd report concludes, in essence, is that Olmert, Peretz, and Halutz are massively incompetent. The Israeli public have known this for months - this report may be the final blow to Olmert’s career, but his popularity ratings have been terrible for quite a while now (a fact also influenced by allegations of fraud and improper conduct while he was industry and trade minister). Now, of course, they are positively dire - an instant poll for Israel’s Channel 10 showed that if elections were held tomorrow, Olmert would get a total of 0% of the votes. That’s a score that would make even George W. Bush blush. In a poll taken Tuesday and published in Ha’aretz, 68% of respondents said they wanted Olmert to resign, while only 9% expressed support for the current government.

And sure enough, like rats fleeing a sinking ship, Olmert’s closest allies have begun to desert him. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livny, traditionally a close ally of Olmert, has called on him to resign and announced her intention to replace him, whilst the head of the Kadima faction and coalition, Avigdor Yitzhaki, resigned earlier today. Defence Minister Amir Peretz could soon follow. Needless to say, none of these principled figures resigned when it might have made a difference. Olmert is stubbornly clinging to power, insisting that he can "repair" and "correct" the failures highlighted by the report - as Ari Shavit writes, he doesn’t even have the integrity to resign. In this respect, he is similar to British Prime Minister Tony Blair and U.S. President George Bush - Israel’s two principle backers during last year’s war (a front cover from The Independent last year illustrates this point well).

But there is something missing from the Winograd report and the public and political outrage it induced. Most Israeli commentators seem not to have noticed, but, for reasons that should be obvious, Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora most certainly has:

"The report on the unjust war... did not make a single mention of the massive material, human losses and destruction Israel inflicted on Lebanon".

He’s right - it didn’t. That Israel committed gross war crimes repeatedly and systematically over an extended period of time against a largely defenceless population went totally unmentioned in the report. It also seems to be missing from most of the ample press coverage since its publication, which has instead focused almost exclusively on the report’s domestic political consequences. As Nir Hasson writes, the Winograd report ‘lacks a serious examination of the military conduct of the war. Its authors chose instead to focus on the performance of the senior decision makers. Even the abduction of two Israel Defense Forces soldiers, the incident the sparked the war, was not analyzed in detail, nor are the IDF’s bombings inside Lebanon in the days that followed it.’

Indeed, this was inevitable from the outset. As the report states,

‘On September 17th 2006, the Government of Israel decided, under section 8A of The Government Act 2001, to appoint a governmental commission of examination "To look into the preparation and conduct of the political and the security levels concerning all the dimensions of the Northern Campaign which started on July 12th 2006′ [my emphasis]

So the Committee’s mandate from the start excluded any examination of the legality or morality of the war - it was instead ‘charged with examining the preparedness and behaviour of the political and military leadership’. This is important, because it means the true horror of what Israel inflicted on thousands of innocent Lebanese last year will remain confined to the history books. Olmert should not resign; he should be tried and convicted for war crimes.

Let’s just remind ourselves very briefly of what transpired last summer. Here’s what Amnesty International had to say about Israel’s conduct during the war:

‘During more than four weeks of ground and aerial bombardment of Lebanon by the Israeli armed forces, the country’s infrastructure suffered destruction on a catastrophic scale. Israeli forces pounded buildings into the ground, reducing entire neighbourhoods to rubble and turning villages and towns into ghost towns, as their inhabitants fled the bombardments. Main roads, bridges and petrol stations were blown to bits. Entire families were killed in air strikes on their homes or in their vehicles while fleeing the aerial assaults on their villages. Scores lay buried beneath the rubble of their houses for weeks, as the Red Cross and other rescue workers were prevented from accessing the areas by continuing Israeli strikes. The hundreds of thousands of Lebanese who fled the bombardment now face the danger of unexploded munitions as they head home.

The Israeli Air Force launched more than 7,000 air attacks on about 7,000 targets in Lebanon between 12 July and 14 August, while the Navy conducted an additional 2,500 bombardments. The attacks, though widespread, particularly concentrated on certain areas. In addition to the human toll – an estimated 1,183 fatalities, about one third of whom have been children, 4,054 people injured and 970,000 Lebanese people displaced – the civilian infrastructure was severely damaged. The Lebanese government estimates that 31 "vital points" (such as airports, ports, water and sewage treatment plants, electrical facilities) have been completely or partially destroyed, as have around 80 bridges and 94 roads. More than 25 fuel stations and around 900 commercial enterprises were hit. The number of residential properties, offices and shops completely destroyed exceeds 30,000. Two government hospitals – in Bint Jbeil and in Meis al-Jebel – were completely destroyed in Israeli attacks and three others were seriously damaged.

In a country of fewer than four million inhabitants, more than 25 per cent of them took to the roads as displaced persons. An estimated 500,000 people sought shelter in Beirut alone, many of them in parks and public spaces, without water or washing facilities.

Amnesty International delegates in south Lebanon reported that in village after village the pattern was similar: the streets, especially main streets, were scarred with artillery craters along their length. In some cases cluster bomb impacts were identified. Houses were singled out for precision-guided missile attack and were destroyed, totally or partially, as a result. Business premises such as supermarkets or food stores and auto service stations and petrol stations were targeted, often with precision-guided munitions and artillery that started fires and destroyed their contents. With the electricity cut off and food and other supplies not coming into the villages, the destruction of supermarkets and petrol stations played a crucial role in forcing local residents to leave. The lack of fuel also stopped residents from getting water, as water pumps require electricity or fuel-fed generators.

Israeli government spokespeople have insisted that they were targeting Hizbullah positions and support facilities, and that damage to civilian infrastructure was incidental or resulted from Hizbullah using the civilian population as a "human shield". However, the pattern and scope of the attacks, as well as the number of civilian casualties and the amount of damage sustained, makes the justification ring hollow. The evidence strongly suggests that the extensive destruction of public works, power systems, civilian homes and industry was deliberate and an integral part of the military strategy, rather than "collateral damage" – incidental damage to civilians or civilian property resulting from targeting military objectives.’ [my emphasis]

Human Rights Watch, in a report covering the early phase of the conflict, reached similar conclusions:

‘This report documents serious violations of international humanitarian law (the laws of war) by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Lebanon between July 12 and July 27, 2006, as well as the July 30 attack in Qana. During this period, the IDF killed an estimated 400 people, the vast majority of them civilians, and that number climbed to over 500 by the time this report went to print. The Israeli government claims it is taking all possible measures to minimize civilian harm, but the cases documented here reveal a systematic failure by the IDF to distinguish between combatants and civilians.

Since the start of the conflict, Israeli forces have consistently launched artillery and air attacks with limited or dubious military gain but excessive civilian cost. In dozens of attacks, Israeli forces struck an area with no apparent military target. In some cases, the timing and intensity of the attack, the absence of a military target, as well as return strikes on rescuers, suggest that Israeli forces deliberately targeted civilians. [my emphasis]

Israel bombed hospitals, houses, petrol stations, supermarkets, villages, factories, farms, roads, bridges, a power station, a lighthouse and the Beirut airport. It bombed innocent people, and then bombed their funerals. It ordered residents of the south of the country to leave, and then bombed them when they tried to. UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Jan Egeland described "block after block of houses" totally "levelled" by Israeli air strikes. It’s "horrific" and a "violation of international humanitarian law", he stated. Israeli government officials, on the other hand, repeatedly and openly advocated collective punishment and other war crimes throughout the conflict. Olmert himself boasted of the success of Israel’s policy of collective punishment in an interview with Reuters, declaring,

"All the population which is the power base of the Hizbollah in Lebanon was displaced. They lost their properties, they lost their possessions, they are bitter, they are angry at Hizbollah and the power structure of Lebanon itself has been divided and Hizbollah is now entirely isolated in Lebanon".

Israel repeatedly rejected a ceasefire, aided in no small part by the United States, despite repeated calls for a truce by both Siniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. After declaring the entire south of Lebanon to be a free-fire zone, populated entirely by terrorists, Israel destroyed the roads and bridges necessary to allow those those civilians who remained, primarily the elderly, the sick and the very poor, to flee. Israel waged what the Lebanese president termed a "war of starvation", destroying facilities and infrastructure ‘indispensable to the survival of the civilian population’ (Amnesty International), and then refusing to allow humanitarian aid to be delivered to the suffering.

In a final act of destructiveness, Israel fired over a million cluster bomblets into southern Lebanon, 90% of them in the final 72 hours of the conflict, when it was clear that there would be a ceasefire. Jan Egeland described Israel’s use of cluster bombs as "shocking" and "completely immoral", whilst a commander in the IDF’s Multiple Launch Rocket System unit (responsible for firing the cluster bombs into Lebanon) said,

"In Lebanon, we covered entire villages with cluster bombs, what we did there was crazy and monstrous."

Since the war ended, there has been a Lebanese civilian killed or injured by one of these cluster bomblets - 10%-40% of which remained unexploded on impact - almost daily since the conflict ended last August. It is estimated that it will take "probably three to five years" to clean-up all the unexploded ordinance littered throughout southern Lebanon - Israel continues to refuse to provide the necessary coordinates and maps to help the clear-up operation.

Amnesty International concluded,

"Many of the violations examined in this report are war crimes that give rise to individual criminal responsibility. They include directly attacking civilian objects and carrying out indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks. People against whom there is prima facie evidence of responsibility for the commission of these crimes are subject to criminal accountability anywhere in the world through the exercise of universal jurisdiction." [my emphasis]

After all of this, it is pretty disturbing that the harshest official criticism levelled at the Israeli government is that it "mismanaged" the war. Unfortunately, the problem extends way beyond the Winograd Committee. As Jonathan Freedland explains,

"This round of self-flagellation was not prompted by concern that the 2006 pounding of Lebanon was "disproportionate", to recall the word of that hour. Israelis still believe they had every right to take on Hizbullah, who had abducted two Israeli soldiers from Israeli soil and had thousands of rockets aimed at Israeli civilian towns. The criticism is not that Olmert fought the war but that he fought it badly. That he didn’t achieve his stated aims of freeing the soldiers and de-fanging Hizbullah; that he sent troops in harm’s way with no coherent plan and insufficient protection; and that a non-victory against a mere guerrilla movement has shattered the IDF aura of invincibility essential to deter Israel’s enemies. It’s for that series of failures that he has been slammed."

Not that Freedland expresses any problem with this - indeed, he praises the Winograd report for proving Israel’s democratic credentials (an opinion shared, oddly enough, by Hassan Nasrallah), despite the fact that it wasn’t independent and despite the fact that it totally ignored the main problem with the Lebanon war; namely, it’s moral and legal depravity. Indeed, Israeli society in general took precisely the wrong lessons from the Lebanon war, just as it did following the Gaza disengagement. Instead of feeling disgust at the mass suffering inflicted on innocents by the IDF, most of the Israeli public seems more concerned with the fact that Israel lost. This perverse focus on who ‘won’ or ‘lost’ the war was exemplified by Ehud Olmert, who uttered the following chilling remark last September:

"Half of Lebanon destroyed; is that a loss?"

If anything, the Israeli public is of the opinion that Israel was too restrained in its assault on Lebanon. Hence, if elections were held tomorrow, Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would probably win. Rather than being ‘anti-war’, the majority of the Israeli public appears to be merely ‘anti-losing’. This does not bode well for prospects of peace and calm in the future. In paragraph 18 of the Winograd report, its authors state,

"The war thus brought back to center stage some critical questions that parts of Israeli society preferred to avoid."

And, thanks to this report, they can go on avoiding those difficult questions that little bit longer.

Cross-posted at The Heathlander

Tags: Israel, Lebanon, Ehud Olmert, Winograd Commission, democracy, Middle East (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Permalink | 90 comments

    •  Full Olmert quote, for clarity's sake, (0+ / 0-)

      "The claim that we lost is unfounded. Half of Lebanon is destroyed; is that a loss?"

      Olmert is not suggesting that it is no big deal that much of Lebanon was destroyed. He is actually claiming that destroying half of Lebanon represents some sort of victory for Israel. Nearly as bad/immoral, but different from what is implied pretty strongly by your partial quote.

      If you want to see what God thinks of money, look at the people He gave a lot of it to. - Dorothy Parker

      by planyourday on Thu May 03, 2007 at 12:27:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  is there any evidence.... (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    zemblan

    that the commission was set up to do anything other than examine "performance of the senior decision makers"?

    Rod Torkelson's Armada Featuring Herman Menderchuk

    by howardx on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:33:13 PM PDT

    •  What do you mean? (3+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      mattes, corvo, npbeachfun

      No - as far as I can see, that was exactly its purpose.

      •  well... (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        npbeachfun, heathlander

        i was wondering if they ignored the damage and casualties to lebanon purposefully or if that was never part of their brief.

        Rod Torkelson's Armada Featuring Herman Menderchuk

        by howardx on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:36:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think it was part of their brief (4+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          Rusty Pipes, corvo, npbeachfun, Diaries

          Which is obviously very convenient for those who appointed it (the government)!

        •  ya know (1+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          MBNYC

          the was plenty o damage to Israelis and Israel too

          including Arab Israelis, courtesy of Nasrallah

          but, you know Hezbollah literally took over Lebanese towns from which to launch rockets, against the will of it dwellers, right?

          I mean u have no clue how many Lebanese civilians vs. how many fighters were killed

          we have no clue how much Qana was staged or not too.

          them Hezbollah are some tricky folk!

          Even The Best Drummers Get Hungry

          by Keith Moon on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:52:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There was damage done to Israel (7+ / 0-)

            and no one is pretending there wasn't. (Although if by "plenty" you mean relative to the level of destruction Israel caused in Lebanon, I disagree).

            Human Rights Watch examined Israel's claim that Hizbullah fighters hid behind civilians and so its killings were justified. It found that this "neither explains nor justifies" the extent of civilian casualties caused by Israeli airstrikes. So, in other words, it's not true.

            As to the rest - if you're willing to sink so low in order to apologise for Israeli crimes as to actually deny that they happened, contrary to all evidence and contrary to all the human rights reports, then it's not worth conversing with you.

            •  aw (3+ / 0-)

              Recommended by:
              MBNYC, Eric S, Dcoronata

              gee heathguy, you've got some tender feelins' man, gotta tread lightly around ol' heath now....sheeit.

              whatever man, it's been debated enough roun these parts pardner.

              you've got your conclusions, I'be got mine, and ne'er the 2 shall meet I'm sure, not in this lifetime prooly, tho ya never know but I don't hold out much hopes ya see.

              Even The Best Drummers Get Hungry

              by Keith Moon on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:00:50 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Doesn't this blow your claim out of the water? (2+ / 0-)

              Recommended by:
              MBNYC, Eric S

              How do you support your claim they were "largely defenseless" and then say they did indeed suffer damage?

              Furthermore, your claim that their intent wasn't to rescue their kidnapped soldiers demands that you state what you feel was their real intent.  Unless you are a mind reader, you can't know, therefore your point is literally not worth the photons on the monitor.

      •  oh i see (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        npbeachfun, heathlander

        ‘On September 17th 2006, the Government of Israel decided, under section 8A of The Government Act 2001, to appoint a governmental commission of examination "To look into the preparation and conduct of the political and the security levels concerning all the dimensions of the Northern Campaign which started on July 12th 2006′ [my emphasis]

        ok my bad.

        Rod Torkelson's Armada Featuring Herman Menderchuk

        by howardx on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:37:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  How would such a topic... (0+ / 0-)

    ...possibly be within the purview of the Winograd commission?

    The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

    by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:40:32 PM PDT

    •  It isn't (5+ / 0-)

      hence the problem with the commission.

      •  Only if the purpose is construed... (3+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        Eric S, howardx, zemblan

        ...to be the evaluation of all things.

        Israeli citizens have a vested and real interest in the processes which its elected government uses for good or ill to achieve the purposes assigned to it by the Israeli electorate.  That the Israeli government is exercising transparency is clearly a good.

        I think that you and I agree that Israel in general needs to more deeply consider the implications of its actions in the region.  What that has to do with government accountability to its people is beyond me.

        The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

        by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:46:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's clearly good that there's *a* commission (7+ / 0-)

          but its clearly bad that the commission doesn't examine the most important aspect of the Lebanon war, or else that there isn't another, parallel commission that does.

          The government doesn't just have to account for the things it feels most comfortable accounting for. The law matters, I'm afraid, and Israel committed crimes in Lebanon. The government should be made to account for its military conduct in Lebanon, and neither the Winograd report nor the press is performing this vital function.

          •  Remember Tommy Franks qoute.... (4+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            mattes, npbeachfun, heathlander, Diaries

            ..."we don't do bodycounts". This is why goverments suck. They only care about themselves.

          •  How is this the proper arena for this issue... (0+ / 0-)

            ...a commission?

            Because the "crimes" of which you speak are not crimes under Israeli law.  If they are crimes, they are crimes under international treaties and conventions.

            Israel has a proper arena for the evaluation of said issues by its own populace.  They are called "elections", and by law, they take place no less than every four years, and in many cases and probably this one, more often than that.

            Democratic self-determination means exactly that, heathlander.  You and I can disagree deeply with the choices that result from that.  I can even vote in opposition.  But it means what it means.

            The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

            by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:00:41 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  They are crimes (5+ / 0-)

              because international law is as binding as domestic law.

              I don't see what this has to do with "democratic self-determination". I was under the impression that a functioning justice system is an integral part of any democracy.

              You're comment about elections could apply equally well to the current commission. The fact is that for elections to mean anything, the populace has to be informed. For there to be government accountability, there needs to be transparency about how it operates and what it does. Authoritative, impartial, independent committees are the only way other than a full-blown trial to do that.

              What you're saying is that somehow there DID need to be an inquiry into the political preparation and conduct of the war, but that there DOESN'T need to be one about the actual military conduct of the war. That seems like a very strange view to me, for the reasons described.

              •  ach - "your" not 'you're'. (n/t) (1+ / 0-)

                Recommended by:
                Jay Elias
              •  If you can somehow demonstrate... (2+ / 0-)

                Recommended by:
                unfounded, zemblan

                ...that any of the charges regarding the conduct of the war are not already public knowledge in Israel, then I would support such an idea.  But there is no aspect of the information presented here which is not already information widely available to the Israeli public.

                They are not unaware of what you and I know.  They don't agree, or at least, many do not.

                I don't want to get into the issue of international law and its nature here.  You and I know we disagree deeply regarding that issue, and moreover, if what you say about the binding nature of it were actually true, you'd hardly need a commission to make the case.

                The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

                by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:18:44 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Exactly the same thing could be said (2+ / 0-)

                  Recommended by:
                  Diaries, Sabbah

                  of the current Winograd report. You think the Israeli public needed this to know that the war in Lebanon was a strategic/tactical mess?

                  The point is that a) commissions like this are authoritative and have access to people and documents that the public at large doesn't, and b) regardless of what may or may not be known in the public, it is important to hold impartial and independent investigations into major policies/events (like wars) that have obviously gone wrong somewhere in the interests of government transparency and accountability (for you can't really have one without the other).

                  In any case, what I'm mainly objecting to here is the ambivalence, the almost disregard large sections of Israeli society appears to have towards the atrocities and crimes Israel perpetrated in Lebanon last year. The Winograd report is just an example of that.

                  •  Yes, I do... (2+ / 0-)

                    Recommended by:
                    unfounded, zemblan

                    ...I do think that it is imperative for the Israeli people to know precisely how the government they elect is failing to execute the missions the people assign it, because they are charged with deciding the specifics about how the system will be reformed.

                    Paradoxically, your last post makes this issue more interesting personally to me, but less and less about the Winograd report, the Israeli war in Lebanon, or Israel at all.  Your issue is with the means that all modern nations wage war.  Nothing is untrue about your complaint against Israel in this case if changed to be about the United States, or France in African conflicts, et al.  And I'm with you on this one too.  There needs to be an absolute reevaluation, not only from a moral and legal perspective, but from the POV of basic military utility of the strategies used.

                    Making that case about the Winograd report, however, is simply spurious.  The issues are simply unrelated.

                    The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

                    by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:40:10 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  well (3+ / 0-)

                      Recommended by:
                      unfounded, npbeachfun, MBNYC

                      correct me if I'm wrong Jay, but you favored military action against Hezbollah, seeing a growing Iranian funded threat there, correct.

                      it's just that u differ with the strategy employed by Israel which left an unsatisfactory outcome....ie. Nasrallah still breathing and Hezbollah still a threat internally in Lebanon.

                      Even The Best Drummers Get Hungry

                      by Keith Moon on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:44:52 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Well... (2+ / 0-)

                        Recommended by:
                        StupidAsshole, unfounded

                        ...I believed that Israel had a right and to an extent a duty to respond.  Whether or not I would actually have supported a response would depend on the details of what was planned; the mission, its goals and methods, and its probability of success.  I would have never supported any action which considered strategic bombing to be a key ingredient.

                        Moreover, I don't consider killing Nasrallah to have been a militarily viable or significant goal, nor would the disabling of Hezbollah as a threat been something I would consider militarily feasible.  I don't support military actions without possible and meaningful goals, which this particular mission as designed lacked from the start.

                        The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

                        by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:50:45 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  well (2+ / 0-)

                          Recommended by:
                          unfounded, npbeachfun

                          I don't support military actions without possible and meaningful goals,

                          what would have been yours as you look at it today regarding Hezbollah. I mean you listed two big goals that you don't consider feasible...what's left?

                          I don't consider killing Nasrallah to have been a militarily viable or significant goal, nor would the disabling of Hezbollah as a threat been something I would consider militarily feasible

                          I also know you posted that you'd have no regrets if Nasrallah had been killed. Couldn't Secret ops have found Nasrallah if given real attention?

                          Even The Best Drummers Get Hungry

                          by Keith Moon on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:57:35 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Well... (0+ / 0-)

                            ...what the Mossad can do and what the military can do are different things.  Assassinations of leaders are neither militarily feasible nor productive; the failed attempts by the US to strike at Hussein and the negative impact this had on the military campaign (see the Doha Farms bombing) are documented.  

                            But if he was dead, I wouldn't regret it.  But it would not aid the military situation.

                            What is left are three things.  First, a prevention strategy, aimed at limiting the capacity of Hezbollah to wage war.  This must be very strictly limited, as mistakes in this case which influence civilians are counterproductive towards this goal.  The other is a punishment strategy, aimed at making the consequences of action by Hezbollah members and leadership so personally high as to make a counter-incentive.  This also must be deeply limited; a population with nothing left to lose cannot by definition be punished.  An example of this would be the latter stages of the NATO bombing against Milosevic and his allies, which targeted personal assets of Milosevic and his inner circle, creating pressure on that group to cease action.

                            The final option is a mission specifically planned to rescue the captured soldiers and/or recover their bodies.

                            The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

                            by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:03:54 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                            •  well (1+ / 0-)

                              Recommended by:
                              unfounded

                              they bombed all Nasrallah's assets, didn't they? well cept his bunkers and TV station. (that's one thing they should have unravelled)

                              but don't you fear a Hezbollah coup in Lebanon? Shit is Israel gonna sit by and watch the gov't fall? Not saying it will, but it might. Isn't that the worst case scenario? I mean give them enough time to banish Christians, and militarize the country and they'll be a deadly threat

                              First, a prevention strategy, aimed at limiting the capacity of Hezbollah to wage war.

                              what does this mean given seemingly unlimited arms flow thru Syria?

                              Even The Best Drummers Get Hungry

                              by Keith Moon on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:11:56 PM PDT

                              [ Parent ]

                              •  Well... (1+ / 0-)

                                Recommended by:
                                unfounded

                                ...they bombed his Hezbollah related assets.  As for the things that he personally values, such as property or the like, I have no idea.  Do you?  In the case of Milosevic, these were their personal holdings, not their assets for their political/military power.

                                Do I fear a Hezbollah coup?  Not too much; that is beyond the capability of Hezbollah.  What they could do is bring down the government and restart the civil war; the Phlange and other groups will not peacefully allow them to seize power.  Which is an awful possibility, but realistically, it is undeniable that the actions of last summer have only made such a scenario more likely.

                                Well, prevention can entail more than preventing the flow of arms, and there are more than a few ways that Israel could work on stemming that flow.  But a possible prevention strategy could have been the eradication of much of Hezbollah's ability to use whatever arms they get, by killing or capturing a significant plurality of its users.  Good planning could have allowed the Golani and Givati brigades to strike massively and quickly directly against those fighters.  There would, of course, be casualties in this sort of action, but you can do it effectively and directly, without having massive civilian casualties that counteract the consequences to Hezbollah of losing those personnel.  Rockets need people to launch them, and people to train new people to launch them.

                                The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

                                by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:20:10 PM PDT

                                [ Parent ]

                                •  yeah (1+ / 0-)

                                  Recommended by:
                                  unfounded

                                  I agree with your latter assessmants

                                  as to

                                  it is undeniable that the actions of last summer have only made such a scenario more likely.

                                  my take is the Hariri commision was the timetable here, Hezbollah would have been plotting internal disruptions with or without the conflcit last summer. Perhaps, since the conflict, the gov't has beefed itself up to a large degree, with stronger security forces. So you could say the war with Israel tipped Hezbollah's hand and gave the gov't time to strenghen.

                                  as in Saniora thinking:

                                  Hey, these Hezbollah guys are some killin motherfuckers., we need to get ready!

                                  Even The Best Drummers Get Hungry

                                  by Keith Moon on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:27:26 PM PDT

                                  [ Parent ]

                                  •  I think Saniora already knew that... (3+ / 0-)

                                    Recommended by:
                                    Rusty Pipes, unfounded, heathlander

                                    ...but more to the point, the ability of Hezbollah to act depends on their ability to appeal to significant numbers of Lebanese, particularly outside their Shi'ite base.

                                    I think that clearly, the actions against Israel and the Israeli response added to the popular acceptance of Hezbollah by the Lebanese population.  General Aoun could not have taken his recent positions before.

                                    The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

                                    by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:30:07 PM PDT

                                    [ Parent ]

                                    •  well (1+ / 0-)

                                      Recommended by:
                                      unfounded

                                      Aoun is considered a turncoat by many Christians in Lebanon....how much of a following does he have? Is he really a significant part of the puzzle. Cause again, contrarily, he has enraged his Christian opposition and fired them up to arm themselves and fight if necessary.

                                      I mean they would have fought anyway, but now it's like they're on 24 hr. guard, ready to go. No surprises.

                                      Even The Best Drummers Get Hungry

                                      by Keith Moon on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:34:55 PM PDT

                                      [ Parent ]

                                    •  also (1+ / 0-)

                                      Recommended by:
                                      unfounded

                                      one often overlooked fact is that some/many/unknown quantities of Shiites want to be rid of Hezbollah, but have no place to turn = no alternatives being they're under an iron grip.

                                      some Shiite muftis and whatnot speak out against Hezbollah.

                                      si?

                                      Even The Best Drummers Get Hungry

                                      by Keith Moon on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:44:29 PM PDT

                                      [ Parent ]

                                      •  Sure... (2+ / 0-)

                                        Recommended by:
                                        unfounded, heathlander

                                        ...always have.  That's why Hezbollah isn't the only Shi'ite party - there is also Amal.

                                        Yes, Aoun has alienated many.  But he never would have spoken up in the first place before last summer.

                                        The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

                                        by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:45:41 PM PDT

                                        [ Parent ]

                                        •  well (1+ / 0-)

                                          Recommended by:
                                          unfounded

                                          hasn't Amal leadership basically succombed to Hezbollah, and at this point they're indistinguishable - to the detriment of the common folk?

                                          si?

                                          Even The Best Drummers Get Hungry

                                          by Keith Moon on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:48:33 PM PDT

                                          [ Parent ]

                                          •  They are allied in one 'bloc'... (2+ / 0-)

                                            Recommended by:
                                            unfounded, heathlander

                                            ...in the Lebanese parliament.  I'm not aware of any movement to create a single identity in the eyes of the public.

                                            The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

                                            by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:52:43 PM PDT

                                            [ Parent ]

                                            •  right (1+ / 0-)

                                              Recommended by:
                                              unfounded

                                              however Hezbollah wants to vote or call Parliament to session or not or basically whatever Hezbollah wants Amal leadership does. That's Berri (sic) right?

                                              Amal needs to grow a spine and step away from Hezbollah, but I imagine there's a Syrian/Iranian/Hezbollah bullet waiting for anyone who doesn't toe the line.

                                              tough situation

                                              Even The Best Drummers Get Hungry

                                              by Keith Moon on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:55:57 PM PDT

                                              [ Parent ]

                                              •  I'd also imagine that Amal... (3+ / 0-)

                                                Recommended by:
                                                unfounded, Keith Moon, heathlander

                                                ...sees some value in their ability to moderate the position of Hezbollah to whatever degree and to use their influence to advance issues important to them.

                                                The question is at what point does Amal moving away from Hezbollah serve them enough to outweigh the risk.  I don't know the answer, but then again, if I did, I ought to have a different job.

                                                The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

                                                by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 06:04:36 PM PDT

                                                [ Parent ]

                    •  "The people" did not "assign" (2+ / 0-)

                      Recommended by:
                      Rusty Pipes, Sabbah

                      the Israeli government the "mission" of bombing fleeing civilians and hospitals or flooding children's playgrounds and people's back gardens with unexploded cluster bombs. They did that all on their own, and yes, there has to be some accountability for that.

                      What I'm pointing out is that this much needed accountability and official, public introspection is not provided by the Winograd report, and it hasn't been provided by anything else either.

                      Yes, it's true that states have tended to violate the law when they go to war (and usually when they're not at war, too). This is very unfortunate.

                      •  the Lebanese (2+ / 0-)

                        Recommended by:
                        JPhurst, MBNYC

                        people did not assign Hezbollah with the task of kidnapping and Killing Israeli soldiers all under cover of a rocket bombardment nither.

                        Even The Best Drummers Get Hungry

                        by Keith Moon on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:49:18 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  My point.... (1+ / 0-)

                        Recommended by:
                        unfounded

                        ...is that while I am interested in what you are talking about, no one behaves this way.  No one looks at the ideas about war developed post-WWI (which all the strategies used by modern armed forces in the world are, in fact) and questions them fundamentally.  

                        Those who do are universally dismissed, such as Robert McNamara, because we are not interested in those who have actually used these methods and come to evaluate them in that manner.  I cannot fathom why.

                        We have known that the bulk of American naval doctrine was obsolete since World War II.  Yet it has not changed; in fact, it is the policy of our government that the Navy receive as much funding as both the Army and the Air Force.  Why?

                        The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

                        by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:55:38 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I'm not sure (3+ / 0-)

                          Recommended by:
                          Rusty Pipes, Diaries, Sabbah

                          but wait a minute: when you say "no one behaves this way", do you mean that no one abides by the law? Becuase that's not actually true - there have been attempts to abide by the law by countries like Nicaragua, but they've always been punished for doing so (in Nicaragua's case by the U.S.).

                          But yeah - unfortauntely, whilst we have a well developed system of laws we have yet to develop an effective system of enforcement. Those standing in the way are the powerful countries - understandably, since the creation of a credible multilateral 'police force' or even a more fair UN would mean taking away some of their power.

                          •  I think the issue of the UN and Israel (1+ / 0-)

                            Recommended by:
                            Keith Moon

                            Is sometimes misunderstood by people who haven't watched the UN crap all over Israel for decades.  Take a look at the history of UN resolutions regarding Israel, and notice the lack of same applied to Egypt, Jordan, Syria.

                            This isn't because the UN is inherently evil or inherently good.  It's just a room with a bunch of members who vote on things.  20-someodd of those members represent arab nations.  One represents Israel.  So what kind of results are you going to get?

                            If you did a majority vote throughout the middle east, they would say Israel should dissolve itself as a state and the jews should all move....  where?  Who cares?  

                            Does that mean that Israel is bound to abide by resolutions sponsored by and voted upon by states that have repeatedly tried to wipe it out?  States where the leaders refer to "al nakba" and "the near enemy"?

                            •  Actually, the UN as a whole has been (1+ / 0-)

                              Recommended by:
                              Rusty Pipes

                              amazingly good towards Israel. Israel has never been seriously punished despite decades of violating UN resolutions.

                              And actually, if you look at those resolution, they're pretty fair and balanced. The UN has basically been calling for a two-state settlement for 30 years, and Israel and the U.S. have continued to reject it.

                              •  Ha, ha, ha, ha (1+ / 0-)

                                Recommended by:
                                Keith Moon

                                The UN has never punished anyone for anything.  

                                Occasionally, groups of nations have punished a nation under the pretext of "international law" while other nations undermine them.

                                The UN has called for a two-state settlement for 30 years, as has the US and a majority of Israeli prime ministers and public opinion polls over at least the last 15 years.  So, yeah, good for the UN that they haven't actually said that Israel should be disbanded although there is that whole "zionism is racism" amendment.

                                Take a look at the UN resolutions throughout history.  Under Jordanian rule, zero bitching from the UN about Jerusalem's fate.  Israel takes Jerusalem in 67.  Immediate resolution saying Jerusalem should be international.  Follow-on criticizing Israel for having a parade there.  Etc, etc etc.

                                UN workers literally aided Hezbollah in kidnapping an Israeli a few years back - they were trying to cover it up to avoid the international crisis and transported the prisoner in a UN vehicle.

                                There's plenty more where that came from, look it up yourself.

                                The fact of the matter is, 20 arab votes, 1 israel vote.  That's how it goes.

                                When the majority opinion supported segregation, were you for that, because it was the majority and the law?

                                Fortunately we have the US supreme court.  The UN has no such thing to rule on a resolution's fairness.

                                •  The reality is quite different (1+ / 0-)

                                  Recommended by:
                                  Rusty Pipes

                                  Both the U.S. and Israel have consistently rejected the UN two-state resolution virtually every year for several decades. You can check the record for yourself online - every year, a resolution is put forward calling for a full Israeli withdrawal and the creation of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. It's always the same - the majority of the world in favour, and Israel, the U.S. Nauru, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia on the other.

                                  So for example, in January 1976 you had a resolution put forward which said basically what the Arab League says today. It was support by all the Arab states, including Syria and Jordan, and also by the PLO. Israel rejected it and the U.S. vetoed it. And that pattern has continued right up to this day.

                                  •  Ok, so Israel/US voted against that particular (0+ / 0-)

                                    two-state solution.

                                    Which is an attempt to draw lines on the map without one iota of compromise regarding Israel's concerns.

                                    I'm assuming the resolution included the right of return and disbandment of every single Israeli settlement?  Did it include the "international city" Jerusalem thing?  Did it turn over French Hill, for example, to Palestinian control?    

                                    You have a link?

                                    Israel and the US expressing support for a negotiated two-state solution that both sides agree too means they're for a two-state solution.

                                    Israel and the US opposing a particular version that has several deal-breakers in it doesn't mean they're opposed to all peace in general.  

                                    Are you seriously making the case that the US and Israel are against a two-state solution?

                                    •  It spoke of: (1+ / 0-)

                                      Recommended by:
                                      Rusty Pipes

                                      ' 1. Affirms:

                                      (a) That the Palestinian people should be enabled to exercise its inalienable national right of self-determination, including the right to establish an independent state in Palestine in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations;

                                      (b) The right of Palestinian refugees wishing to return to their homes and live at peace with their neighbours to do so and the right of those choosing not to return to receive compensation for their property;

                                      (c) That Israel should withdraw from all the Arab territories occupied since June 1967;

                                      (d) The appropriate arrangements should be established to guarantee, in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of all states in the area and their right to live in peace within secure and recognized boundaries;'

                                      (source)

                                      That basically represents the international consensus on the two-state solution, based on international law. The U.S. vetoed it and Israel rejected it.

                                      And, as I say, it's not just one resolution - basically the same resolution has been put before the UN year after year ever since, and every single time the entire world votes on one side, with the U.S., Israel and a couple of Pacific Island states on the other.

                                      So yes, Israel and the U.S. have for a long time now explicitly rejected a two-state settlement, by any reasonable definition of the word. I mean, take a look at what Netanyahu's communications minister said in 1996:

                                      "Semantics don’t matter. If Palestinian sovereignty is limited enough so that we feel safe, call it fried chicken."

                                      So yes, Israel is willing to let the Palestinians call themselves a "state". But has it ever supported a two-state solution in line with the long-standing international consensus? No.

                                      •  Ok, well B) is a dealbreaker (0+ / 0-)

                                        And C) is unrealistic as it stands.  40 years is a long time, and there have been natural drifts of population in both directions.

                                        For example, French Hill in Jerusalem is technically a couple hundred yards over the green line, Jewish neighborhood, coincidentally a lot of UN workers live there.  There are equivalent arab neighborhoods on the Israel side of the green line.  

                                        I'm of the opinion that the line should be renegotiated as Barak and Clinton attempted to do at Camp David.  Let's go for a sustainable line.

                                        Are you saying we should slavishly stick to a 40 year old line even when it doesn't make sense?  

                                        Also, I'm assuming that resolution includes giving the Golan Heights back to Syria, which has zero, zip, fuck-all to do with the I/P peace process.  Take a poll of the Arab Israelis living in the north and ask if they want to be Syrian citizens and lose their rights to vote and free speech.  

                                        So being against this particular, stupid two-state proposal is being against a two-state solution?

                                        I'm of the opinion that this proposal is circulated repeatedly knowing it will fail for propaganda points.  If the people floating it were serious about peace, they would try to find a workable deal.

                                        •  Calling it a "dealbreaker" (1+ / 0-)

                                          Recommended by:
                                          Rusty Pipes

                                          and "unrealistic" is utterly meaningless. It dpesn't matter in the slightest what Israel decides is a "dealbreaker", or what you decide is "unrealistic". The relevant framework in which to look at this is what each side is entitled to under the law, not what Israel wants.

                                          That's the mainstream position, totally justified under international law (and, incidentally, note that it doesn't call for the Palestinian right of return to be fulfilled, merely that it be recognised - there's a world of difference).

                                          But yeah, it's unrealistic, because Israel and the U.S. rejected it and continue to do so to this day.

                                          •  You're being patently dishonest (0+ / 0-)

                                            You're claiming that because Israel is against a particular UN resolution that it then follows that Israel is opposed to a two-state solution in general.

                                            Hypothetically, let's say everything except giving the Golan back to Syria against it's inhabitants' wishes was just ducky with Israel.  Would they then be against a two state solution becasue they voted against this resolution?

                                            Let's take it a step further and say that Israel is willing to negotiate on right of return and the path of the Green Line, as they have multiple times and received nothing but grief as a result.  Being against an imposed solution that they had no part in drafting is being against a two-state solution?

                                            "The Law" as voted on by the arabs with one dissenting vote by Israel.  Some law.

                                            The Jim Crow laws were the law as well.

                                            •  Dishonest? (3+ / 0-)

                                              Recommended by:
                                              Rusty Pipes, sofia, unfounded

                                              Calm down, please.

                                              Again - Israel is happy for the Palestinians to call themselves a state. But that's not what is meant by the two-state solution. The two-state solution basically means a full Israel withdrawal, barring "mutual" and "minor" border alterations, the creation of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital and a just solution to the refugee question.

                                              That's what the two-state solution has always meant - it has hardly changed over the years. That's the mainstream position, the international consensus, founded securely in international law. It has been accepted by the Palestinians since the 1970s/1980s, and has been sitting, waiting on the table for Israel to accept it for 30 years. The wait has so far been in vain.

                                              •  I agree entirely with this sentiment: (0+ / 0-)

                                                The two-state solution basically means a full Israel withdrawal, barring "mutual" and "minor" border alterations, the creation of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital and a just solution to the refugee question.

                                                We'd probably bicker over details but as far as the overall shape, that's what I'm for.  I think French Hill and other Jewish Jerusalem neighborhoods should be Israeli, Arab East Jerusalem, Ariel and Hebron should be Palestinian, and as far as the refugees, well, I'd be more inclined towards compensation than citizenship, especially considering the security hazards certain "refugees" would present.  I'm amenable to anything on the old city, I think it should be Israeli but would settle for international status were I the Israeli PM at the negotiating table and that was the final issue (assuming the Pals hadn't pulled a 2000 Arafat on every issue until then).

                                                However, the Golan Heights have nothing to do with that and the strict 1967 borders in many places are counterproductive towards that.  So Israel was totally right to vote against that resolution and we were right in vetoing it.

                                                The Palestinians will get another chance to sit down and draw those lines on the map just as soon as they can agree on who sits down at the table (and acknowledge that Israel has a right to exist  -- Israel is acknowledging that Palestinians deserve a state by sitting down, it's the least they could do).

                                                •  Well, again (0+ / 0-)

                                                  the law on the Golan is totally clear: Israel must withdraw. That is the price for peace with Syria, which would bring Israel far more security than a hundred Lebanon wars.

                                                  But the point is that Isael has consistently rejected the international tow-state solution which has been supported by the entire Arab League and the Palestinians for decades. It has continued to choose war and colonisation over withdrawal, regional intergration and peace.

                                                  (About East Jerusalem - the law is clear: Israel hasn't one iota of sovereignty over any of it. However, the Palestinians have in the past been willing to compromise over this, as on virtually every other major issue, and have basically said that the Palestinian half should go to the Palestinian state and the Jewish half to the Israeli state. The exact border lines are complicated, but that seems to be the basic principle.)

                                                  •  Honestly, my opinion on Syria (0+ / 0-)

                                                    is that they can go eff themselves.  They started a bunch of wars and they lost so that's what happens.

                                                    There's no humanitarian issue in the Golan, the inhabitants very much enjoy Israeli citizenship and the modern lifestyle and basic human rights it entails.  Why should Israel do a disservice to their own citizens by forcing them to become Syrian?  What has Syria ever, ever, ever done to deserve a gift like that?  The land has been Israeli for longer than Syria has even existed as a state.

                                                    I'd take the military advantages of the high ground in the Golan over hopes of Syrian gratitude any day of the week and twice on Sunday, Saturday and Friday just to make sure I cover all 3 religions.

                                                    •  It's not a "gift" (1+ / 0-)

                                                      Recommended by:
                                                      callmecassandra

                                                      it's the law. It is inadmissable to acquire territory by law. Israel returning the Golan is no more a "gift" to Syria than a robber returning a stolen television is a "gift" to its rightful owner.

                                                      •  So screw the people who live there? (0+ / 0-)

                                                        Who cares what they think?

                                                        If acquiring territory by force is against the 'law', I'm missing the calls to give the southwest to Mexico.

                                                        Like I said, the Golan has been under Israeli control for longer than it was ever under Syrian control.  The inhabitants don't want to be Syrian.  And the only reason it's the quote 'law' is because Arabs outvote Israelis at the UN.  

                                                        While we're at it, we should give Guam and the Northern Marianas back to Japan I suppose.    

      •  Public opinion...world (1+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        npbeachfun

        opinion...

        Will the elite be happy living behind gated communities in the potential meltdown? Peace now. -7.00, -2.92

        by mattes on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:54:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Ah, the common thread of empires everywhere... (7+ / 0-)

    most recently evident in the US and Israel alike:

    Rather than being ‘anti-war’, the majority of the Israeli public appears to be merely ‘anti-losing’

    It's no different here. People only think the "war" is a bad idea because we aren't "winning". Not because of how inherently immoral it is to kill thousands (in our case, hundreds of thousands) of people in technology-enabled terrorism.

    This is the fundamental attitude that will need to change (both here, there, and wherever people happen to live within states possessing lots of barbaric weaponry). As long as people think invasions and occupations and collective punishments of civilian populations are bad things only when they don't produce the "desired results", there will never be a lasting peace. We'll simply rush headlong into the next government-sponsored act of terrorism (invasion, "war", the principle is the same), with no regards for the consequences.

    ...i realize now / you were not to be blamed, my love / you didn't choose your name, my love...

    by Diaries on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:20:01 PM PDT

    •  Yeah, I agree (4+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      mattes, npbeachfun, Diaries, Sabbah

      certainly the Democrat party is not "anti-war" by any stretch of the imagination. It's just 'anti-Iraq war', on the basis that we're not doing too well at it.

      •  Again... (1+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        unfounded

        ...isn't the issue not that the Democratic party is not anti-war, but that the American electorate is not anti-war?

        There are absolutely anti-war American political parties.  They have little constituency.  It isn't the party's fault that the people who elect them support these wars in principle.

        The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

        by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:45:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, not really (2+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          FirstValuesThenIssues, Diaries

          because as the only realistic opposition, it matters a great deal that both the Democratic and Republican parties operate on the assumption that the U.S. rules the world and has the right to intervene militarily whenever it wants.

          That other, smaller parties stay smaller can be explained by factors other than what the American people think - the electoral system, the media, etc. etc. I'm too tired to go into it now (it's one am here), but that this is true is obvious when you recognise that on a whole range of issues, the American electorate is significantly to the left of both parties. This results in a democratic deficit, whereby the will of the people is not represented in Congress.

          •  I think... (1+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            MBNYC

            ...that the polling data about the sentiments of the American people at the onset of every military operation undertaken since WWII makes my point for me.

            The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

            by Jay Elias on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:10:31 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  You know (1+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            Five Thirty

            ...let me just point out that the willingness of the American electorate to sustain massive overseas deployments through war and peace and administrations of both parties over generations is the main reason why our allies, including the United Kingdom, didn't go down the Soviet sewer. Be careful what you wish for; an isolationist, pacifist American public is not in your best interests. I seem to recall that the European left did fuck-all about the siege of Sarajevo, or Kosovo, or Rwanda, or now Darfur; funny how American willingness to expend blood and treasure made the critical difference in two of those scenarios. Meanwhile, the odious dictatorships on Europe's own doorstep continue unmolested - Belarus comes to mind.

            Let me suggest that you seem to be extrapolating from your own British Empire onto this country. Faulty comparison, mate. We don't want any Indian Empires, any Viceroys, any glittering proconsuls with the GCMG pinned to their chests. If you believe otherwise, you are mistaken.

            And there we are, the beautiful; eating from TV trays, tuned in to Happy Days.

            by MBNYC on Thu May 03, 2007 at 06:58:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  How about spliting the anti-war...from (1+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        npbeachfun

        the anti-preemptive war? Somehow Bush/Olmert have combine the two.

        Will the elite be happy living behind gated communities in the potential meltdown? Peace now. -7.00, -2.92

        by mattes on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:00:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  BTW (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        unfounded, Keith Moon

        ...it's Democratic Party. Not Democrat Party.

        (shakes head)

        And there we are, the beautiful; eating from TV trays, tuned in to Happy Days.

        by MBNYC on Thu May 03, 2007 at 06:22:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Could it be that Israel (5+ / 0-)

     or let's say Olmert was intent on working with bush/cheney in sending a message to Iran?

      I had not read any of the information you have gathered in your diary -- apparently there was some sort of battle plan on the shelves -- because the Israeli Air Force certainly had the co-ordinates of grocery stores and gas stations etc. Thank you for the summaries.

      The the systematic destruction of the civilian infrastructure was so bloody deliberate. And the US did nothing to stop Israel's attack -- even when it was obvious that civilians were being targeted. In fact as noted in your diary -- the US (Condi) actively blocked efforts to stop the Israeli attack on Lebanon AND helped arm Israel when it ran out of bombs etc. I've heard this called bush's 3rd war. So a whole lot of the blame for what happened to Lebanon should fall squarely on bush/cheney/condi. By all accounts this 3rd war is as badly managed by the civilians in charge as the other two bush war campaigns.

     It was suggested at the time that this was a proxy war -- with Lebanon as Iran's stand in and Israel as the stand in for the US.

     

     

    BROKAW: You know what I think we're going to have to go back and do? Wait for the voters to make their judgment.

    by Carib and Ting on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:49:39 PM PDT

  •  Where is the Lebanese commission... (6+ / 0-)

    ...that was formed to determine who was responsible for provoking a war that left 1000 dead and the south of the country devastated?  And that would determine how a country can allow a fundamentalist militia to run rampant in an entire part of the country?  And that would examine the human rights implications of indiscriminately rocketing civilian population centers with no military goal whatsoever?

    Perhaps the Winograd commission should take that up?

    Meanwhile, here's what one astute Lebanese blogger had to say about the Winograd report.

    "So hurray, we have won. Israel is defeated. Strangely, their defeat will move them forward. As for our "divine victory", well, it will keep us where we are, which is at the bottom of the lowest circles of hell."