Edwards goes on the air in Oregon?

In a short entry today, WaPo's The Fixreports that John Edwards will be airing ads in Eugene Oregon.

Which raises the big question of, Why?

"We don't want our opponents to know why we are going up in Oregon," said Edwards consultant Joe Trippi.

The ad is expected to be a local version of the popular, "We the People" ads.

This ad was uploaded to Youtube on May 2 by the Edwards campaign.

This is the Iowa version of the ad:

So, again, the big question is, why advertise in Oregon?

My ideas:
Trippi is the campaign adviser quoted, and Trippi is the guy who talked about a brokered convention.  Under that theory we would leave February with 3 viable candidates, all with enough EVs to make a go of it at the convention.  Under that idea the late states could affect who is in second and who is in third (for example).

Following the news of the Iraq spending bill, maybe Edwards wants to take advantage of the strongly Democratic and anti-war sentiment in Eugene.  But then, why Eugene and not any number of other places, for instance, why not San Francisco?  

Fundraising.  Oregon gave less than a half million dollars in the first quarter, almost half of which was to Mitt Romney.  Perhaps we are seeing a lead up to a huge Northwest fundraising push?  Eugene donors gave only 13,000 dollars.

Union activities.  Apparently Edwards recently endorsed an AFL-CIO backed bill in the Oregon legislature.  Link from BlueOregon

What are your theories?  Why Oregon?

•  Tips for Tricks

  and campaign strategy treats.

  by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:13:59 PM PDT

  •  For purely selfish reasons

    I want him to pay attention to Oregon, I live here!

    by sarahlane on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:30:56 PM PDT

    •  maybe

      this is all a ploy to pay attention to you?

      by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:33:19 PM PDT

•  Great diary and great ad!!

  Trippis' influence.  I think you are right.

  by TomP on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:16:38 PM PDT

  •  thanks tom

    I appreciate it.

    by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:20:54 PM PDT

•  oregon may be a good match

  Oregon may be particularly receptive to his message.  Maybe he wants to get noticed there first while everyone else is focused elsewhere.

  by klarfax on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:18:04 PM PDT

•  Actually, there is a lot of talk of moving

  our primary to Feb. 5th.  By the way, Edwards got more out of Oregon and Washington than Clinton or Obama.

  by cjallen on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:18:23 PM PDT

  •  More money, I mean, during the first quarter.

    by cjallen on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:18:44 PM PDT

  •  I saw that

    it seemed like just a tiny bit more.  I think it was 60,000 to 50,000 for him vs Clinton in Oregon.

    I had not seen the talk of moving the primary up.  That would certainly be interesting.  I wonder if his move to endorse that legislation was a move to help convince the Democratic party there to move on the issue.

    by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:20:09 PM PDT

    •  AFSCME is probably the most powerful

      group in the state.  They don't need John's vocal support.

      by cjallen on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:29:12 PM PDT

  •  I'm in Oregon

    I gave him money and my ma's in Washington and she gave him money too. She always doubles whatever I give him because she makes a hell of a lot more money then poor ol' me.

    by sarahlane on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:31:59 PM PDT

•  Maybe because he values every vote?

  And not Just PA, Ohio and Florida?

  I dunno, just a crazy thought.

  :)

  by Skulnick on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:21:58 PM PDT

  •  Didnt you hear?

    We can win the presidency simply by playing turtle.

    /snark

    I hope Mark Penn and Schaller et al shut up real soon.  Im tired of losing.

    by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:24:05 PM PDT

    •  Schaller? He's one of the good guys nt

      by clarkent on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:51:42 PM PDT

      •  Whistling Past Dixie

        makes him one of the worst in my mind.

        by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:54:29 PM PDT

        •  We CAN do it without the South.

          But it would be much more difficult, foolish, and would condemn the people of the South to rule by Republicans.

          by cjallen on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:57:38 PM PDT

        •  nah

          I think he's wrong on "wasting" resources on the South, but he's nothing like Mark Penn.

          by clarkent on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:59:07 PM PDT

          •  I was

            talking about that issue.  And Penn's comments about where Hillary would campaign.

            You are right, Schaller is right on the other issues, unlike Penn, who is a DINO of the worst stripe.

            by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 06:03:07 PM PDT

      •  Schaller is only half right...

        I agree that the Deep Red states like Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina and, maybe, Georgia are out of reach - but to abandon Virginia, North Carolina and Texas is just moronic.

        Virginia and North Carolina are showing signs of turning blue and could go as early as 2008.

        Texas, is just simply too big to give up on. Those electoral votes are damn valuable.

        by Skulnick on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:55:32 PM PDT

        •  Just as importantly

          Abandoning those states on a presidential level is a sign of someone who wont be elected.  To tell people, "Your vote doesnt matter to me" is deeply troubling, and I think it is a large part of why Kerry lost.

          But, our Congressional majority depends on men and women from those states, so to say they should be actively ignored by our top of the ticket is absurd to me.

          by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:57:34 PM PDT

          •  And John won't do that.

            He will campaign in the South.  Hell, he's going to Utah!

            by cjallen on Tue May 22, 2007 at 06:03:39 PM PDT

        •  Virginia is well within reach

          Democrats had a win in 2005 and then again in 2006 here. It's no grand slam but if we have a candidate that resonates there is no reason that we can't pull another one off. I'll tell you right now his plans for health care and education resonate(where I am anyway).

          by cwaltz on Tue May 22, 2007 at 06:16:53 PM PDT

          •  As well they should

            His plans on Education, Health Care and Poverty all speak to the social responsibility that most Southerners feels.  What some call populism others call Christian Charity.

            I think his message would be particularly effective in NC and VA, states that have elected Democratic Governors on the promise of good education (among other things).

            by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 06:31:37 PM PDT

•  Thats cold hearted political calculus right there

  If Edwards pulls it off, he and his team will go down as one of the all time greats

  by wuod kwatch on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:25:34 PM PDT

•  Anyone know how much the ad market costs in OR?

  I know I got a fundraising letter today asking for my opinion and asking if I could contribute so that they could air ads.

  by cwaltz on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:35:14 PM PDT

  •  I have no idea

    I cant imagine it is that expensive, and he isnt competing with any other campaigns I would imagine.

    by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:36:59 PM PDT

    •  That may be part of the strategy then

      perhaps he is going for a smaller cheaper ad markets first and hoping to do it early enough that he gets his brand established before his opponents can(sort of like what he did with Iowa).

      by cwaltz on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:40:29 PM PDT

      •  that would

        certainly make a lot of sense.

        Imagine a scenario where he leaves February 5th in a close second and sweeps the remainder of states, like Oregon and NC, assuming of course that Oregon doesnt move their date.

        by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:44:55 PM PDT

      •  Eugene/Springfield would also

        mean communicating to some of the activists and base.  Students, too.

        by cjallen on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:49:14 PM PDT

        •  I checked out OR

          He has about 20 chapters of One Corps there so it certainly seems like he has a pretty solid and receptive base to build on.

          by cwaltz on Tue May 22, 2007 at 05:53:38 PM PDT

          •  If he keeps his progressive message going....

            ...then he'll have strong support here.  We've always been a pretty liberal state and Eugene is a liberal community even by Oregon's standards.

            Springfield..... well.... not so much really, but they're improving.  :)

            by Corwin Weber on Tue May 22, 2007 at 06:58:15 PM PDT

            •  It helps when you have activists

              that are committed to changing the landscape. We take back the country one town and city at a time ;).

              by cwaltz on Tue May 22, 2007 at 07:01:54 PM PDT

              •  I suspect that after today.....

                ....we're going to have even more of them.

                I'm already perfectly ok with the fact that we're going to have to primary my own Senator.  The rest of us need to bite the bullet and realize this too.

                by Corwin Weber on Tue May 22, 2007 at 07:18:10 PM PDT

•  perhaps it one of these OR initiatives

  Senator John Edwards took time out from his presidential campaign to study and endorse HB 2891, currently under consideration by the Oregon legislature. The bill, sometimes known as "card check", would let workers create a union when a majority of workers have signed cards saying they want to do that.
  ...

  http://www.blueoregon.com/...
  ----

  Wyden's Health Plan Getting Attention
  in the news

  National Public Radio gave some exposure to Ron Wyden's Healthy Americans Act, the Senator's initiative to insure all Americans:

  The bill would basically end the current system in which most Americans get health insurance from their employers. Wyden says that is happening anyway — he describes the employer-based system as "melting like a popsicle on a summer sidewalk." Instead, individuals would buy their own coverage — with financial help for those who cannot afford it. . . .

  http://www.blueoregon.com/...
  ----

  Thom Hartmann, in his radio show broadcasted locally in Portland OR,
  often covers Oregon politics, and I seem to recall him mentioning,
  that Edwards was interested in Oregon's new Health Care Plan, which is up for approval by the State legislators.

  by jamess on Tue May 22, 2007 at 07:22:14 PM PDT

  •  OH yeah

    I had forgotten about the efforts of Oregon to provide UHC.

    Thanks.

    by Blue South on Tue May 22, 2007 at 07:23:54 PM PDT