NE-SEN: Poll Shows Hagel Vulnerable

Whoever said that Chuck Hagel is invincible had better look at this poll released today by the state Democratic Party. Chuck Hagel is vulnerable and Jon Bruning is not doing much better.

The Nebraska Democratic Party this morning released new polling data looking at approval ratings and public sentiment regarding U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel and Nebraska Attorney General and potential Senate Candidate Jon Bruning.

According to the findings of the recent statewide survey of Nebraska, Hagel is on a dangerous terrain, particularly if he is to face Bruning in a Republican primary. Today, Hagel earns a net negative job performance score statewide with 42 percent of voters saying he is doing an excellent-to-good job, while a majority, 50 percent, says fair-to-poor. Hagel’s job performance is most negative with his Republican base, while it is net positive among Democrats and solidly mixed among independents. Among conservative Republicans, Hagel’s professional marks have crumbled, with almost two-thirds, 61 percent, saying he is doing a fair-to-poor job as Senator....

However, in sharp contrast to Hagel, Bruning earns a solid 61-degree personal feeling thermometer rating among those who can rate him, with a slightly better than three-to-one warm-to-cool ratio, 35 percent have a favorable or warm opinion of him, while 10 percent have a cool opinion. Bruning earns a strong professional rating as well, with 40 percent saying he is doing an excellent-to-good job, while 29 percent say fair-to-poor.

Unlike Hagel, Bruning’s job performance is solid among the Republican base, and independents too, while Democrats split evenly.

I think we can forget about waiting for Hagel to retire to pick up this seat. His popularity is waning (ironically for being a moderate) and the state's Republican party is getitng ready to tear itself apart. The question now is whether state Democrats and the DSCC are serious about turning Nebraska a little less red.

•  Well, it looks to me like

  CT-Sen 2006.  Hagel wins a general election easily, but may well lose a primary.  Unlike the CT race, I don't believe that Hagel could lose a primary and then run third party.  And a strong Dem could win an open seat race.

  by Superribbie on Thu May 03, 2007 at 01:36:46 PM PDT

•  are there any plausible Democratic candidates?

  Are there any plausible Democratic candidates? Politics1.com lists Scott Kleeb and Mike Fahey as possible candidates. I remember Kleeb because of the big netroots push for him last year in NE-3, and I don't know anything about Fahey. Any Nebraska Kossacks care to weigh in?

  by pine on Thu May 03, 2007 at 01:48:30 PM PDT

  •  Fahey might be more likely

    Fahey is from the more populated East (Omaha), Kleeb ran in the West. Kleeb is probably more well known on Kos than in Eastern Nebraska (Omaha, Lincoln).

    by Elvis meets Nixon on Thu May 03, 2007 at 02:32:43 PM PDT