Scottish and Welsh Elections
Thu May 03, 2007 at 02:49:05 PM PDT
The results should start coming in momentarily for the elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly. Here is a brief overview of the two bodies and the parties that are represented in them.
Election results and coverage can be found here, here, and here, for Scotland, and here for Wales. Or try the BBC site for both countries.
UPDATE: I will post any changes in seats below the fold, at the bottom
UPDATE 2 (12:30 AM EST): Feh, I'm going to bed. We'll see how things look in the morning
UPDATE 3 (1:00 PM EST): Final results in, updated below
The Scottish Parliament (Pàrlamaid na h-Alba)
The Scottish Parliament consists of 129 seats. Of these, 73 are chosen by the "firs-past-the-post" method in individual constituencies, much like US congressional seats. Because this can lead to some lopsided results (especially in contests with 4 major parties and several smaller ones vying for votes), there are an additional 56 "regional" seats, where 7 MSPs (Members of Scottish Parliament) are chosen from each of the 8 regions by proportional representation.
Voters therefore vote twice for their MSPs: once for an individual candidate, and separately for a regional list of candidates put forward by each party. Some smaller parties such as the Greens only put up regional list candidates, not wanting to waste resources or play spoiler by running in the constituencies.
The result is a semi-proportional body that makes it difficult for any one party to gain an overall majority, and in the two prior elections (1999 and 2003), the largest single party (Labour in both cases) had to form a coalition with another party (the Liberal Democrats in both cases) to form a government.
The Scottish Parliament has the power to make laws governing most of Scotland's domestic policy. It does not have tax-raising powers, but can vary the level of tax up to 3% in either direction. It outlawed fox hunting before the UK parliament did; instituted land reform in the Highlands, where entire communities and islands have been bought and sold by wealthy individuals; and passed the Gaelic Act, giving limited official status to the language for the first time.
The Parties
The three main UK parties are all represented in the Scottish Parliament: Labour, Tories, and Lib Dems, though the Tories largely have the semi-PR system to thank for their presence, as they've only gotten two or three people election via the constituency vote. The other major party is the Scottish National Party, a left-of-center party that advocates independence within the EU for Scotland, and otherwise has staked out a position slightly to the left of Labour (which is partly the result of Labour moving right under Blair, but also results from an earlier trend of the SNP moving left in opposition to Thatcher's English nationalism).
Labour has been the dominant party since the end of WWII, and most of its support comes from the Central Belt, the most populous part of the country running from Glasgow to Edinburgh and surrounding metropolitan and industrialized areas. The Lib Dems usually only get about 10-15% of the vote, but it is concentrated in the Borders (southern Scotland) and most of the Highlands and Northern Isles (Orkney & Shetland). The SNP base is more spread out, but their core strength is in the Northeast. The Tories have largely been squeezed out by the other 3 parties, but still have some popularity in the more affluent rural areas.
The two biggest smaller parties were the Greens and the Scottish Socialist Party, but the latter has splintered, with some former members forming a new party called Solidarity. Both the Greens and the SSP support Scottish independence.
In the last election in 2003, Labour won 50 seats, the SNP 27, Tories 18, Lib Dems 17, Greens 7, Socialists 6, and 4 were elected as independents or from single-issue parties.
Independence is an important issue in Scottish politics but not necessarily one that drives voting. I recall reading some years ago that as many as 1/3 of Labour voters supported independence (even though the party is as strongly against it as are the Tories), and 25% of SNP voters opposed it. Or maybe it was the other way around. Of course much of that could be tactical voting, i.e. voting with a party you don't necessarily support in order to "keep out the Tories" (a common mantra in the 90's). But many Labour politicians are at least sympathetic to independence, though those who were too outspoken on the subject found themselves booted from the party or prevented from running as candidates. Dennis Canavan, the popular MSP for Falkirk West, is the most famous example. He was deselected by Labour for the 1st Parliamentary vote in 199, ran as an independent, won, and was reelected in 2003. (Note: I don't think it was just his stance on independence that put him out of favor with New Labour, but he is plainly for it).
The Welsh Assembly (Cynulliad Cenedlaethol Cymru)
I'll make this brief, not to slight Wales or the Welsh, but to keep this diary from going on too long. The Assembly has fewer powers than the Scottish Parliament; it basically decides how to allocate Wales' share of the federal budget. It is set up similarly to the SP in terms of seats; there are 40 constituency AMs (Assembly Members) and 20 from the regional lists.
As for the parties, it's fairly similar to Scotland: Labour is the big fish (30 of the 60 seats in the last election) with the Tories (11) and Lib Dems (6) also major players. The Welsh nationalist party, Plaid Cymru (Party of Wales) has gone from fringe player at Westminster to a much bigger role in the WA, winning 12 seats in 2003 (and 17 in 1999). Compared to the SNP, they are a bit more radical (i.e. socialist) on most issues but perhaps less nationalistic (many PC officials see independence as a more gradual occurrence). They are also much more closely connected with the Welsh-speaking community in the west and north of Wales, from which they draw the bulk of their electoral strength, though they have made some inroads in the southeast. The Gaelic-speaking heartland of Scotland is more evenly divided between the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems.
UPDATES:
SCOTLAND: Totals
SNP 47 (+20)
Lab 46 (-4)
LD 16 (-1)
Con 17 (-1)
Grn 2 (-5)
Ind 1 (-2)
SSP 0 (-6)
So the SNP barely makes it in as the largest party. Governing either as a minority or in coalition will be difficult to say the least, but this is a major turn in Scottish politics. Fifty of the 129 seats are now held by pro-independence parties (SNP, Greens & Independent Margo MacDonald, a former SNP bigwig).
SCOTLAND: Constituencies
SNP 21 (+12)
Lab 37 (-9)
LD 11 (-2)
Con 4 (+1)
SNP Gains from Labour
Cunninghame North
Dundee West
Edinburgh East
Fife Central
Glasgow Govan
Kilmarnock & Loudoun
Livingston
Stirling
Western Isles
SNP Gains from Lib Dems
Argyll & Bute
Gordon
SNP Gains from Independents
Falkirk West
Lib Dem Gains from Labour
Dunfermline West
Conservative Gains from Lib Dems
Roxburgh & Berwickshire
Labour Gains from Independents
Strathkelvin & Bearsden
SCOTLAND: Regions
SNP 26 (+8)
Lab 9 (+5)
LD 5 (+1)
Con 13 (-2)
Grn 2 (-5)
Ind 1
SNP largely took advantage of the drop in Regional seats for the Socialists (lost all 6 seats) and Greens (lost 5 of 7). Labour gains came as a result of losing so many constituency seats.
WALES: Totals
Lab 26 (-3)
PC 15 (+3)
Con 12 (-)
LD 6 (-)
Ind 1 (-)
Plaid Cymru gain Llanelli from Labour
Tories gain Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South, Clwyd West, Preseli Pembrokeshire from Labour
Labour gain Wrexham from Independent
Independent gains Blaenau Gwent from Labour
In the regions, Labour & Plaid gain 2 seats, Tories lose 4 (negating their constituency gains).
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