A while back I read
The Tipping Point by Macolm Gladwell.
Click here for a link to the book.
There's a couple points that seem to apply to politics.
There are the three groups of people that determine whether or not ideas spread. Connectors know an unusually large and diverse group of people. Mavens are the subject matter experts that other people look to for guidance. And salesmen (or persuaders) are the people in society that are unusually persuasive.
How can the Democrats target these people as part of the 2004 election?
Also, Gladwell identifies the concept of ideas having stickiness. How can Democrats make their critique of Bush sticky?
I wrote the piece below for a newsletter of The World Federalist Association.
Spreading Federalism Like an Epidemic
The Tipping Point reviewed by Carl Nyberg
How do ideas spread in society? Why do some ideas catch and others fizzle? In The Tipping Point, How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference (2000, 2002, Little, Brown and Company) Malcolm Gladwell examines these questions. World Federalists should reflect on these issues because we are trying to persuade people to embrace new ideas about how the world should be organized. We want society, including society in other countries, to embrace the idea of a democratically accountable world government--an ambitious goal.
Gladwell makes parallels between contagious ideas and contagious diseases that become epidemics. The spread of an idea is like an outbreak of the flu. Like the idea, the flu was there before the epidemic, but had little effect on society. But then something changed turning an idea with no special resonance into an epidemic.
It may be tempting to attribute the change to circumstances beyond our control. The virus mutated. But using examples of STD transmission he shows that exceptional people and external circumstances can fan the flames of an epidemic.
Gladwell identifies three rules about the spread of ideas: the Law of the Few, the Stickiness Factor and the Power of Context. The Law of the Few covers how a few people--people with special qualities--make an idea tip. The Stickiness Factor examines ideas that catch in peoples' minds and what has been done to refine ideas so they do catch. The Power of Context says that the environment of an idea matters and the by changing context one can make or break an idea. Gladwell examines how physically cleaning the New York subway reduced crimes and how groups of people process information.
The Law of the Few. Gladwell uses the example of Paul Revere's ride warning of the British attack to show that who transmits information can determine whether the information gets used. William Dawes also rode to Lexington to warn of the British attack. Dawes went west through Waltham and mobilized few members of the militia. Revere, of course, mobilized large numbers of colonists to resist the British on his route to Lexington. Why did Revere succeed and Dawes fail?
Gladwell observes not all people are equal in transmitting ideas in society. Revere was exceptional; Dawes wasn't. In the chapter titled the Law of the Few, three categories of people are identified that play a special role in the spread of ideas: connectors, mavens and salesmen.
Connectors. Connectors know an unusual number of people, and some connectors circulate in diverse social groups. This allows transmission of ideas from one group to another. Do some people really know many more people than the rest of society? Gladwell tested this idea by using a list of 250 surnames and asking people how many people they knew with the names on the list. In homogenous groups, the scores varied widely. The low score was always under 20 and the high score at least 90.
Connectors will play an important role in spredding the idea of world federalism. They can transmit the idea to unusually large number of people and take it to circles of people that go beyond the usual audience.
But isn't this what being in the media is supposed to do for world federalism? Gladwell argues that the more inundated with information we become, through advertising and the Internet, the more important it is to have word-of-mouth be an important part of any campaign, including advertising.
I was first exposed to World Federalism by a letter to the editor in The Christian Science Monitor, but didn't join WFA or do anything to advance world federalism until contacted by Eric Sandham. Getting the information to people is only part of the effort. World Federalists need to personalize the information and connectors will allow world federalism to be personalized with a larger, more diverse audience.
Mavens. Mavens are Gladwell's second key group for spreading ideas. They are the experts in society. Mavens are trusted by other people in society and sought for specialized information. Mavens are teachers and students of detail and are not as interested in being persuasive. Mavens are the people among us that we seek for advice.
Most people don't know the details of how a circuit breaker works. But we know people that do. If one wanted to change how Americans thought about household electrical systems, the people we'd ask about how circuit breakers work would be the mavens. They would be a key constituency for spreading the new ideas about household electrical systems.
At least a couple types of mavens would seem to be of value to world federalists. The foreign policy mavens obviously can advance world federalism. The World Federalist Association should also focus on the non-profit mavens. When my father decided whether to support Project Vote-Smart, he asked me if it was a quality organization. When people get a direct mail solicitation to join WFA, whose opinion sways the potential member? On foreign policy, who do people seek for advice?
Gladwell observes mavens are difficult to identify. But mavens will play a large role in the spread of the idea of world federalism. Connectors know lots of people. But within specialty subjects, connectors rely on mavens to shape their ideas.
Salesmen. Gladwell's third group for spreading ideas is the salesmen. Salesmen persuade. Some people are just more persuasive than others. Gladwell cites research about the role of non-verbal communication and how some people can project their mood and their enthusiasm for an idea or endevour. People that score highly on tests that measure ability to send emotion are able to convert people to their emotional state in two minutes of being in a room without even speaking. Salesmen have the potential for affirmatively spreading ideas about world federalism.
The lessons of the Law of the Few is that the WFA should--instead of reaching-out to the general public--systematically seek and recruit the individuals that have the qualities that allow them to tip an idea from being just an idea to being a widely held idea. The general public will follow when led by the connectors, mavens and salesmen.
The Stickiness Factor. But the people don't completely define an idea or an epidemic. Some ideas stick and others don't. In one example, Colombia Records divided its advertising campaign between two marketting firms. The more successful firm bought less advertising and sold more records by a quirky campaign than the traditional saturation campaign. Gladwell examines two educational children's television programs, Seasame Street and Blues Clues, to show how small details can make the difference between successfully transmitting ideas and failing.
One lesson from the childrens programs that may apply to persuading people about world federalism is the lesson about confusion. Children get confused by things that seem simple to adults. They just aren't ready to process information in some ways. And confusing children consistently caused them to tune-out and lose the message. I suspect that Americans feel confused and overwhelmed by foreign affairs. This may explain why when one breaks-down foreign policy to single issues, like U.N. funding, the American public is very supportive of the United Nations, but at the same time trusts and elects politicians that are anti-United Nations to conduct foreign policy. Foreign policy is too complicated to understand in total, which makes it a little scary. This makes it easier for voters to emotionally connect with politicians that say Americans should be scared of foreigners and foreign institutions.
WFA should invest in message development. Just making our logical argument for world federalism has only taken the idea to a core of true believers. What needs to be done diffently to make the message stick with people beyond the existing true believers? Simply citing polling hasn't carried issues, like U.N. funding, either. What quirky thing will make world federalism a widespread idea? Word Federalists need to brainstorm about how to make the case for federalism differently. WFA should invest in message development. This may be expensive, but if the goal is to achieve world federalism, WFA needs to present the idea of world federalism in a way that causes it to spread beyond the base.
The Power of Context. It may be self-evident that the international situation affects discussion of foreign policy. But was it self-evident that cleaning-up the New York subway system and arresting turnstile-jumpers would vastly reduce crime?
WFA was founded, and enjoyed its greatest success, in the context of the end of World War II and the advent of nuclear weapons. The world provides a new context for the idea of federalism. For Americans the new context includes terrorism and the "War on Terrorism" and uncertainties about economic globalization. If the message of federalism doesn't resonate in the context of things people are already concerned about, it's not going to spread. WFA, and the larger international peace movement, can't win the debate by telling Americans they are wrong to be concerned about security. WFA needs to explain how federalism addresses security concerns.
Groups size. Gladwell shows that small groups can be instrumental in spreadin ideas through the larger society, and devotes a chapter to discussing group size. How does group size connect to ideas spreading through society like an epidemic? Gladwell argues convincingly that in processing information, society is more than the sum of its parts. People use each other to store information. Why bother learning how to install computer software if your daughter will do it for you? But this transactive memory deteriorates substantially for groups over 150. At that point, the group becomes too unwieldy.
Gladwell goes on to use an example about organizing people. John Wesley founded the Methodist church. What if WFA could start chapters the way Wesley started churches?
The Tipping Point contains numerous thought provoking examples. If the World Federalist Association wants to change the world, we've got to do something differently. Decades of hovering at 11,000 members with 100-150 attending annual meetings hasn't resulted in world government. Hopefully, The Tipping Point will inspire brainstorming about how to make the idea of world federalism spread beyond the current base of true believers.