Even though I live in North Carolina, I nearly jumped out of my seat for joy when I found out that Ken Lucas wanted his old seat back. The more I think about it, this race is pure gold for people like me--born-again Christians who long ago realized that the Republicans are selling our brothers and sisters snake oil. If we can get them to come to our senses, Lucas will be back in the House.
Why am I so sure? The district's demographics, for one. I had always assumed that the 4th was an insanely Republican district on the model of TN-7. But in reality, we Dems actually have a majority--and a fairly substantial one at that, according to the Cincy Enquirer: 246,237 Democrats compared to 180,645 Republicans and 39,925 independents. That works out to a Dem advantage of almost 66,000.
I'm no political scientist, but with those numbers, it's pretty obvious that nominal Democrats in the eastern part of the district are easily swayed by Repub scare tactics on social issues. Combined with the Cincy burbs' tendency to vote for any schmuck with an "R" next to his name, that's why Repubs have held that district for 33 of the last 39 years.
We were able to get the Dems to come home in 1998, 2000 and 2002--and we can do it here. How? Two big things:
- Bring in Paul Hackett. In looking at the KY-4 map, it looks a lot like an extension of OH-2 except with a sliver of the Louisville burbs on the western end. Much of the eastern part of the district is very similar to the parts of OH-2 that voted for Hackett. Much of the district is going to see him on TV anyway, so it wouldn't hurt to bring him in.
- Bring in Robert Byrd. The eastern part of the district is almost entirely part of the Huntington-Charleston, WV market. With Byrd cruising to what will almost certainly be his last term, he'll have some time to rally the voters across the border. After all, they've seen him on TV for years.
- Most importantly--take social issues off the table. This was the major blunder for the Nick Clooney campaign last year--I remember seeing a poll in mid-2004 showing him with a pretty big lead before Davis started the usual shopworn Repub claptrap about "ultra-liberal, pro-abortion, pro-gay Democrats." The people of this district knew who Clooney's son was. They knew what they'd get from his years on Cincy TV. So why in the world did Davis still win? Only thing I can think of is that we didn't do an adequate enough job of cutting off Repub opportunities to resort to scare tactics.
Some pundits have already said it'll take a Dem wave to get Lucas back in. I disagree. We're talking about a district that reelected Lucas by about six points even as Shrub did better in the district than anywhere else in the state. We can pull it off ... just get our born-again brothers and sisters to come to their senses, and Mr. Lucas will go back to Washington.
cross-posted at The Christian Dem Home Journal