Daily Kos

Tuesday: Special Election CA-37 (Long Beach/Compton)

Sat Jun 23, 2007 at 05:25:06 PM PDT

The election is almost on us, this Tuesday, and there has been shamefully little posted about this on the blogs.

Full disclosure: I've given assistance to the Peter Mathews campaign, so I am biased.  Still, I think some people here might like to know what's been happening from my POV sorta close to the frontlines.

Their are eleven candidates in the open primary which is this Tuesday, June 26.  Since this is an outrageously blue district, the winner of the Democratic primary will basically become our new US Congressperson to replace the late Juanita Millender McDonald, who died a few months ago from cancer.

There have been no real polls, so it's a guess about what is happening.  I'll give you my impressions, though, based on the levels of campaign activity.

The Democrats that are putting the most serious effort into this, in my opinion, are Jenny Oropeza, Laura Richardson, and Peter Mathews.  

There was a great deal of expectation for Juanita Millender-McDonald's daughter, Valerie McDonald.  She is in the race, but has had almost no presence.  I have not seen her at the two debates I have been to, and have received no emailings or calls from her campaign, so it seems perhaps to have imploded at some point.

Jenny Oropeza got the endorsement early on of the California Democratic Party.  I have received a lot of fliers from her, and she has had some supporters at the debates.  However, she is not a very impressive speaker or debater.  A very nice, attractive person, otherwise.  On the issue of the war, she, like the other candidates, are all anti-war, but she is the most squishy and boilerplate in her opposition.  This is one reason I personally chose not to support her.  The war is my biggest issue.

Peter Mathews came into this with the most grassroots support and pre-existing campaign operation because he has run for this seat before, challenging McDonald and getting more than 10,000 votes against her in the last primary.  He is also supported by the PDA Progressive Democrats of America, and received press attention when he led a large PDA anti-war protest a while back.  I voted for him then, too.  His biggest advantage to his supporters has been accessibility.  It's easy to reach him and talk to him about the issues, which was a big problem many of us had with Millender-McDonald when she was our Congresswoman.  Mathews big issues are: Education, Impeaching Bush, and Getting out of Iraq.  He is quite clear and unfuzzy about his.  A week ago, I posted for him a diary, under his name but my account, which explained his rationale for impeachment hearings.

I have to give Laura Richardson credit for having the best campaign organization that I have seen.  Her campaign people show up in numbers at events in suits and ties and look like they just came from  a court appearance.  Many fliers and campaign calls.  A large part of her campaign has been based on the idea that CA-37 should remain an African-American district (numerous stories on this in the Long Beach Press Telegram and a diary on here about it too that somebody wrote, not me).  It has been a really repulsive code-worded campaign that turned really negative this weekend, with campaign fliers attacking Oropeza personally.  However, her claim to being the black candidate seems a little forced when you consider how many black candidates there are in this race.  She was also publicly endorsed (against the rules) during a debate I attended, last week, by a Republican candidate, Bishop Guillory.

Robles is running a write-in campaign, and he seems to be putting a lot of effort into it, so it deserves some real mention.  He is running on an environmental platform.  Not being on the ballot in an eleven-way race has to make his position seem Quixotic, but that hasn't stopped the fliers and phone calls from coming in.

Based purely on fliers and phone calls, I would state that the 'serious' (however we define that, I don't know) candidates as Richardson, Oropeza,  Mathews, and Robles.  The others are making appearances at the debates but not buying air time or expending much money, from what I have seen.

I received a fake phone poll a few days ago, asking me which candidate I supported.  It listed four: Robles (mentioned first), Oropeza, Richardson, and McDonald, or "Other.")  The Mathews campaign commented to me that it was almost certainly a fake poll by Robles to increase his identification.

The buzz in the newspaper has been that it's between Richardson and Oropeza.  I believe Mathews has a shot or I wouldn't still be pushing him.  There have been no real polls, so it's a big question mark.  However, if it really is between Richardson and Oropeza, I would guess that it would be Richardson because the Oropeza campaign's presence hasn't been all that impressive, and their fliers lacked the high professional quality of Richardson's.  Still, Richardson is a creepy campaigner.  If Robles wasn't a write-in, I would think that he might have a good chance, too.

Diary: "Peter Matthews: Why Impeachment Must Stay on the Table."

Tags: CA-37 (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

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  •  gotv;gotv;gotv;gotv;gotv..... (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Dumbo

    does your campaign have your supporters identified? these low turnout races are all about gotv; you are looking at a 6-8% turnout; you can win IF you have a ground game

  •  Ricardson and Oropeza have polled (0+ / 0-)

    In Richardson's poll, Richardson is up nine points.  Poll was done by Fairbanks, Maslin who are as good as it gets.

    In Oropeza's poll, Oropeza is up three points which is well within the margin of error.  Not sure who did the poll.

    My prediction:

    With the Dem party endorsement meaning next to nothing, and Richardson having the LA Central Labor Council and numerous CA Assembly staffers (on their own time) on the ground for her, Richardson wins.  With Oropeza coming in second and McDonald (who is truly the creepy candidate in this race, anti-gay and anti-immigrant) finishing third.

    •  is there a run-off? (0+ / 0-)

      or is this winner take all?

    •  Actually... (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      peace voter

      Richardson is the anti-gay candidate.  There is some controversy about this, because Richardson has conflicting votes on gay issues.

      I know next to nothing about McDonald.  I realize it's not too cool to speak unkindly of the dead so close to their passing, but with all due respect, and Juanita was a good Democrat in almost all respects, she had a HUGE accessibility problem.  By that I mean taht you could never contact her.  You could email her, but your email went into a black hole.  You could call, but staffers never answered questions and would just hang up on you.  Nobody even knew that Juanita was sick when she passed away, not even Peter, who had run against her.  Peter ran against her twice, and never met the woman.  So there are some mixed feelings about McDonald in Long Beach.  Good Democrat, but an inaccessible one.  

      In light of that, the fact that her daughter's campaign doesn't seem to have budged or made any effort (by that, I mean no canvassing, fliers, emails, automated phone calls here), it doesn't surprise me.  The fact that she even gets as much attention as she does in the local paper seems to be more reflective of her position as heir rather than as a real candidate.  I take Robles more seriously, and he's a write-in.

      I'll tell you truth... I like just about all the Democratic candidates running, even, or even especially, the boutique candidates who are making really great stump speeches but not "campaigning."  The only one that gives me the creeps is Richardson.  I can't fault her on issues, because she is against the war and more clear on it than Oropeza or Robles.  The suit guys that are working for her at the debates aren't grass roots.  Somebody's paying an awful lot of money for that.

    •  the creepiest candidate in the race (0+ / 0-)

        has got to be Mervin Evans. He is a perennial candidate who has latched onto the anti-immigrant issue  and sees it as the source of all problems. At the 6/14 Cabrillo High debate it was the first thing he talked about in reference to the problems with King Hospital.  He is also one of the crazy types who start yelling with no provocation, as if more decibels will make his arguements more persuasive.
        All of the candidates have some flaws and/or unappetising supporters. If I lived in the district, I'm not sure who I would vote for at this point. I wouldn't vote for Richardson, McDonald, Evans or the other crazies (Lee Davis and Felicia Ford). Either I'd back Oropeza if I wanted to vote for a possible winner (and stop Laura R. from winning it) or Mathews, Ed Wilson (the Signal Hill councilman) or George Parmar (the truck driver) who were the ones I liked best. Watching the debate live made for good political theater and cheap entertainment. But I'm a politics geek so go figure...

      I'm not a Limousine Liberal; I am a Prius Progressive

      by Zack from the SFV on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 03:13:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Oropeza! (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    I'm surprised this dairy didn't mention the independent expenditure by the Morongo tribe for Oropeza...

    To me that looks like that might seal the deal in this important race...

    •  Morongo IEs (0+ / 0-)

       The independent expenditures may or may not be effective in getting out voters for Jenny O. They might just be more bad mailers that end up in the trash or recycling barrels. The key to who wins is the effectiveness of the GOTV operations. I think Oropeza is the favorite but the Labor unions might push enough voters to Laura R.  Jenny's endorsements from the party and the CA League of Conservation Voters will help her and she does have some of the unions (Longshore Workers, Laborers, Operating Engineers, Communications Workers and the United Farm Workers). The candidates are similar on most labor issues except for the tribal casino compacts.

      I'm not a Limousine Liberal; I am a Prius Progressive

      by Zack from the SFV on Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 03:22:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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