There has been much speculation & discussion on the blogosphere as to whether or not Joe Lieberman will avoid running against (and thus avoid being defeated by) Ned Lamont in the Connecticut Democratic primary in August, and will soon start gathering signatures for an Independent run in November instead, since Lieberman cannot credibly do both in parallel.
While no one can say for sure yet what Lieberman will actually do, I think that we can derive some strong hints as to what Joe Lieberman will ultimately do this year, based on what Lieberman already did back in 2004, which was to avoid running in the 2004 Connecticut Democratic Presidential primary, due to Lieberman's fear of being defeated and being humiliated in such.
As a lifelong resident of Connecticut, I took special note back in 2004 of the particular timing of when Joe Lieberman dropped out of the national 2004 Democratic Presidential primary race, a timing which happened to be just before Connecticut was itself to have its own Democratic Presidential primary.
Now why do you suppose that Lieberman, being a Connecticut favorite son and all, did not run in the 2004 Connecticut Democratic Presidential primary to at least accrue all the local political capital and local glory that a native favorite son typically gets doing such?
Well, I strongly believe that Lieberman strategically deliberately avoided running in the 2004 Connecticut Democratic Presidential primary because Lieberman had concluded that he would have LOST BADLY in such and that he would have thus been profoundly humiliated in & by his own state!
You see, Lieberman already knew back in 2004 that because of his fanatical pro-Bush hawkish Iraq war position that he was already dogmeat with the progressive Connecticut Democratic voters who typically dominate Connecticut's Democratic primaries, primaries in which only registered Democrats can participate.
Now, if back in 2004 Lieberman already knew that he was dogmeat with the Connecticut Democratic primary-voting base because of his Iraq war position, enough to scare him out of running in the 2004 Connecticut Democratic Presidential primary as a native favorite son, you can just imagine how much MORE Lieberman fears that same progressive Connecticut Democratic primary-voting base now in 2006!
So, despite all the haughty talk by the pro-Lieberman types, I really think that Lieberman already believes and fears that he will LOSE to Lamont in a Connecticut Democratic senatorial primary in 2006, just like Lieberman feared losing in the Connecticut Democratic Presidential primary back in 2004!
The question therefore is, in 2006 will Lieberman be a coward AGAIN and run away AGAIN from a Connecticut Democratic primary, just like the coward he was back in 2004 when Lieberman dropped out just in time to avoid the 2004 Connecticut Democratic Presidential primary?
I say, if Lieberman did it back in 2004, he can certainly do it again in 2006.