Lost Generation: no Presidents for you!
Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 04:34:02 PM PDT
As the years roll by, a U.S. demographic bulge is slipping into oblivion with nary a President to show for it. This generation is sometimes referred to as the Korean War generation, those who were young adults at the time of the Korean War conflict. Those born between 1928 and 1945. The U.S. has had many Presidents from the previous World War II generation (1910 to 1927), including: Reagan, Nixon, Ford, Kennedy, Carter and Bush I.
More recently, our last two Presidents, Clinton and Bush II, are both of the Baby Boom generation.
Yup, the entire generation (18 years) in between, has lost out on the Presidential sweepstakes. And for better or worse, 2008 might be the Lost Generation's final chance at securing the top spot for one of their own.
What about History?
One might wonder whether this happens occasionally throughout American history, but it really hasn't. Dating back to George Washington, the longest span of years between Presidents is the 22 years between George Herbert Walker Bush and William Jefferson Clinton. Previous to this occurrence, there was 18 years between Eisenhower and LBJ. However, Ike was born at the end of FDR's generation while LBJ was born at the end of the next (pre-WWII) generation. The next greatest span is 13 years, McKinley to Wilson, and then again from Lincoln to Grant.
Can the Lost Generation gain the Presidency in 2008?
Well, not from the Democratic side of the field. Clinton, Obama, Edwards and Richardson were all born between '47 and '61. If Gore enters the race he is also a boomer born in '48.
The greatest hope on the Republican side was perhaps John McCain ('36), but he is fading fast. They have Rudy who was born on May 28, 1944, but he clearly has one foot in the baby boom generation, especially considering that some date the start of this generation in 1945. We'll call it Rudy on a technicality.
The only other Lost Gen Republican hopeful is Fred Thompson ('42). So at present, the last great hope of the Lost Generation seems to be actor/faux-politician Fred Thompson.
Bloomberg ('42), as an Independent, would be an outside shot.
The thing is... time is running out for this generation. It's already been suggested that McCain's advanced age (70) is a factor in his plummet in the polls. Reagan, the oldest President ever, turned 70 a month after the inauguration of his first term, so 70 years of age might be the outside limit for a first-timer. Hence, if they lose this opportunity in 2008, the Lost Generation (LG) might not be able to field any viable candidate in 2012 or 2016.
Why does this matter?
Well for one thing there might be a self-identification bump for LG voters associated with a Thompson or Bloomberg run that might counter any age discrimination effects from voters of other generations.
There also might be a lingering bitterness for the LG-er's, having been excluded from the pinnacle of power. I already see, anecdotally, a certain cultural bitterness amongst LG-er's who I know. They weren't part of the Greatest Generation, but they also weren't part of the Cultural Revolution of the 60's and 70's, most of which was fueled by Baby Boomers.
LG-er's have voted more and more in favor of the Republicans as the years have progressed. I believe they also watch more FOX news than any other demographic group. I think missing the Presidency might further their anger and bitterness in the years to come and spur on their rightward political drift.
Cross-posted on:
My Left Wing
Permalink | 16 comments