Newsweek's "New Poll Low": Another revelation

At the top of this open thread, mcjoan points to a recent Newsweek poll showing Bush at a 26% overall approval rating.

Newsweek gives the by-party breakdown as follows:

Current Total	26%	65%	9%
Republicans	60%	25%	15%
Democrats	8%	87%	5%
Independents	20%	71%	9%

A little linear algebra (below the flip) reveals an interesting consequence of these figures:    Only 27% of the respondents identified as Republicans, while 41% identified as Democrats (or, alternatively, Newsweek weighted the data in this manner, although Mystery Pollster states that Newsweek does not weight by party.)  

I knew Democrats had an advantage in party ID, but fourteen points?  

Summary of calculations:  

I assumed that the percentages of respondents added up to 100% for each question, since Newsweek included a non-committal "Don't know/don't care" answer.  

Letting r, d, and i, represent the percentage of respondents who identified as Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, respectively, we get:

0.60r + 0.08d + 0.20i = 0.26
0.25r + 0.87d + 0.71i = 0.65
0.15r + 0.05d + 0.09i = 0.09

Solving this 3x3 system of equations leads us to:  
r = 27.27%
d = 40.91%
i = 31.82%

•  berry nice

  diary!
  numbers usually do do much for me.  But ya tickled my fancy on this one.
  Ha ha hah hahhahahhhahhahhahahhhahaha
  my tummy hurts.

  by TexMex on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:28:17 PM PDT

•  a matrix of equations...

  or what we called in high school simultaneous equations.  But this is interesting that Dem ID might be 41%.  I suspect the error bars on this figure would be similar to that of the percentages in the poll, or at least proportional in size.

  by billlaurelMD on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:32:30 PM PDT

  •  Yes it is...

    Most of these polls are self-ID - that means the respondents can say whatever they will when asked "do you consider yourself a D, R, or I".  There's been a pretty significant shift away from Republicans lately; it's not completely out of the realm of possibility that it's gone this far.  This is the second poll this week (IIRC) that has skewed towards a Democratic self-ID; how many others have we missed in the recent past?

    by Phoenix Rising on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:54:40 PM PDT

    •  Other polling at Rasmussen has shown

      numbers closer to 37% and 31%.  41% and 28% seems a bit too optimistic.

      But I think I could split the difference and see 39% to 30%.

      by Ken in Tex on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:59:20 PM PDT

      •  There was a recent...

        ...Pew Study validating these trends.

        by Autarkh on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:43:37 PM PDT

        •  Similar to findings at Rasmussen

          http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

          Which party do you trust more to fix these problems:

          Issue
          Dem  GOP  Net Dem Advtg.

          Nat'l Security
          44%  45%  -1

          Taxes
          44%  40%  +4

          Immigration
          39%  33%  +6

          Economy
          47%  40%  +7

          Abortion
          45%  35%  +10

          War in Iraq
          48%  38%  +10

          Education
          48%  35%  +13

          Ethics & Corruption
          44%  27%  +17

          Soc. Security
          50%  32%  +18

          Healthcare
          55%  30%  +25

          This is perhaps more encouraging than advantages in party affiliation.  These tow polls reveal that the country is adopting a more liberal bend, and recognizes that Dems are the ones to elect to make those ideas into reality.

          by Ken in Tex on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 02:29:26 PM PDT

•  8

  by Roadbed Guy on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:34:41 PM PDT

  •  egad, don't know what happened there,

    meant to question the where the 8% of democrats come from who still support W*

    There really aren't THAT many Lieberman supporter out there, are there?  

    by Roadbed Guy on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:36:02 PM PDT

    •  They called...

      Somehow they called Lieberman's house, threw off all the numbers.

      by TexasDemocrat on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:40:51 PM PDT

    •  I've wondered that myself...

      That number is in nearly every poll too.  My guess is that at least some of them are people that are deliberately lying to screw with the poll, and/or too damn stupid to know who Bu$h is or which party they belong to...  But there's no denying that, out there, somewhere, there are hundreds of thousands of people that honestly approval of the job Bu$h is doing and honestly think that they are Democrats.

      I wish I could find one so I could sit down with them and explain that the two positions (approving of Bu$h and being a Democrat) are metaphysically mutually exclusive, and figure out which one they are wrong about.

      by Ken in Tex on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:54:25 PM PDT

•  What inquiring minds really want to

  know is:

  WHO are 8% of self-identified Democrats who approve of this asshole?

  Joe Lieberman and Zell Miller's families couldn't be large enough to account for a number that size.

  Thanks for the good news! 26 is now my new favorite number.

  by MadGeorgiaDem on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:38:06 PM PDT

•  All of this, while

  somewhere around 90% of all talk radio in the country is saturated with "pro-Republican" jabber. Think of it.  That 90% of talk radio is designed to maintain and nurture the sentiments of 26% of the population.

  So, let's hear it for the free marketplace of ideas, eh?

  by Eyeball Kid on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:38:40 PM PDT

•  40% of REPUBLICANS either disapprove

  or "don't know" if they approve of Bush (25% disapprove and 15% don't know).

  by Marinesquire on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:46:25 PM PDT

  •  How can you not know?

    The man engenders strong feelings for and against, mostly against.  And who are these 60% of Republicans who approve of him. And what are they thinking?

    by linnie on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:00:10 PM PDT

    •  knowing publicans

      I think they're waiting to be told by someone in authority to tell them what to think.  The old falwell partisans are waiting for the second coming of jerry to tell them what to think. A good percentage of pubs are waiting for freddie the freeloader to announce so that he can tell them what to think. The adherents of lyndsay graham are waiting for john mccain to tell lyndsay graham what to think so that he can tell the rest of them what to think. The lieberman democrat is waiting for rove to call collins to call lieberman to tell the ONE lieberman democrat what to think. brownback supporters are waiting for the pope to tell brownback what god wants him to know so he can tell them what to think. The romney supporters are waiting for romney to make up his mind to tell them what to think. And so on ad infinitum.

      It all adds up to a helluva lot of I don't knows.

      by dougymi on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:08:35 PM PDT

    •  The fundies still love Bush

      ... and why shouldn't they, given the record of the Supreme Court lately?

      by berith on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:51:27 PM PDT

•  Double checked your math...

  all looks sound to me. Good basic Linear Algebra.

  by Jimdotz on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:00:25 PM PDT

•  This is showing up in other polls

  Pollsters are finding the same kind of "over sampling". It was also recently reported that Republicans are moving into the "independent" column.

  by RandySF on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:03:24 PM PDT

•  Harris Poll has party affiliation

  when Nixon came into office 32% GOP
  when Nixon left office 21% GOP.

  Bush is hated virtually as much as Nixon.
  The numbers might not be too optimistic.

  by nycaliz on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:14:13 PM PDT

•  How can 60% of GOPers

  still approve of W?

  OK, they watch Fox News and think the war is going swimmingly.

  But were they sleeping through Katrina?

  Have they not purchased gasolene in 7 years?

  Have they not tried to pay a college bill or a credit card balance?

  OK, here's one they should surely understand - were they not appalled at the Terry Schiavo circus?

  by pucklady on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:14:59 PM PDT

•  other interesting numbers in the poll

  are Hillary's numbers.  I will be voting for Edwards or possibly Obama, but I'm not going to deny that the latest Newsweek numbers show her gaining.  More encouragingly for those who support Hillary or at least would rather have her than any republican, her disapproval rating is going down.  If it stays in the mid-30's like this poll shows, she will win both the nomination and the general.  Not sure if I can bring myself to vote for her even in the general (for several reasons), but it seems like she is really looking good at this point.

  by eparrot on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:18:59 PM PDT

  •  For those who say she cannot win

    I point to George W Bush in 2004. Easily hated by half the country, but ran a smart, tough campaign and carried Republicans with him. So never count someone out.

    by RandySF on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:23:04 PM PDT

    •  George W Bush's 50% +1

      Strategy is a recipie for disaster.  Please - is that what we want - ?*?!

      by SmithsLastWord on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 02:34:41 PM PDT

      •  Not at all

        I want to win bigger which is why I am votong for her in the primary.

        by RandySF on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 03:25:42 PM PDT

  •  Does that mean you would vote for

    a rethug candidate or you will leave that line blank?

    by oibme on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:25:48 PM PDT

    •  indy (NOT Bloomberg) or 3rd party

      my reason for not voting for Hillary would be that we will not truly redirect this country down the right path until we rein in our multinational corporations.  I doubt Edward or Obama would do it, but they at least might.  No chance of the consummate Washington insider doing it.

      I still might vote for her in a general, just will be a tough choice that I will not make until/unless she is the nominee.  And I'm in Florida, so it's likely to be close.

      by eparrot on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 09:56:49 AM PDT

•  Fewer Republicans

  Thank you GWB.

  One measure of the president is the condition of the party after the president leaves office. You're doing a hell of job George.

  If only George wasn't destroying our country in the process.

  by Sam Wise Gingy on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:28:34 PM PDT

•  Rec'd for mathematical literacy. :^) n/t

  by berith on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 01:53:39 PM PDT