Don't Worry Too Much About HRC's Negatives
Mon Aug 13, 2007 at 09:15:36 AM PDT
Folks have been buzzing the last few days about Hillary's negatives and their potential impact on downticket races.
There's no doubt that Hillary has had high negatives in lots of different polls since the campaign began -- almost always the highest in the field. (She has also often had among the highest positive ratings, but let's leave that aside for now).
If the election were held today, these negatives would be a big challenge. Clearly, for Hillary to win and for downticket Democrats to win, we'd all love to see the negatives come down. But historically, candidates' negatives almost always go up during campaigns -- the other side inevitably spends millions to make sure they do, and some of it sticks!
So what's happening with Hillary? Is there any evidence one way or another?
Well, yes, there is.
(This may have been discussed in comments before -- I found it through a comment at MyDD. But I haven't seen a diary yet -- so apologies in advance if this is duplicative!)
Quinnipiac University has been polling in the big swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, since earlier this year.
On August 8th they released their latest findings.
Guess what?
Hillary's negatives are going down, not up, as the campaign progresses.
And that's not just among Democrats -- it's among independents and Republicans, too.
Here's the quote from the press release:
"[S]he is turning around independent and Republican voters who previously viewed her negatively," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"In the last two months the share of voters who view her favorably has increased to about 50 percent - an important milestone - while the numbers who view her unfavorably has dropped. It is not huge movement, but it is consistent across all three states," Brown added.
In fact, the poll shows that Hillary doesn't need lower negatives than her opponent to win. In fact, it shows the opposite -- she can win despite higher negatives than the other guy.
Let's look at Florida. Clinton's favorable/unfavorable is now 50-42. Giuliani's is 53-26. Looks pretty good for Giuliani, right? Well, not so much. Hillary beats him in a head to head 46-44.
In other words, having a higher favorable number doesn't equal winnning.
But wait, Obama's got a good favorable to unfavorable ratio, too: 44-26. How does he do against Giuliani? He loses, 44-41 percent.
I'm not trying to make too much of these numbers -- it's early and they're bouncing around and they'll change.
But if you're worried about Hillary because
a) you think her unfavorables will never go down, and
b) you think she can't win because of them,
Do some more research. Watch what happens over time. You may feel a bit more reassured.
(by the way, in case you think I'm cherrypicking, in this poll Giuliani beats Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania, too. Hillary ties Giuliani in Ohio and beats him in Pennsylvania despite much higher unfavorables than either Giuliani or Obama).
So what about you? How has your opinion of Hillary changed over time?
