Bush nearing political capitulation on Iraq?
Mon Aug 20, 2007 at 06:08:43 PM PDT
First, let me recommend folks to a blogger that isn't mentioned here as liberally as he should be:
Scott Horton and his blog No Comment provides one of the most consistently excellent forums for critical thinking through international law, the war on terror, and Near East and Central Asian issues.
Horton has an entry today that is well-worth readers' time. "A Change in the Offing in Iraq?" itemizes some recent revelations from Bush Administration insiders that have the "Decider" appearing a little, well, indecisive in his surge slippers.
And, lo and behold, many of the critical reasons for this slouch toward the dreaded realpolitik are (ahem) really political in nature. (Maybe our post-historic Howdy Doody is a "man of the times" after all.)
Key quotes after the break.
The "surge". The GOP hates it:
A major point driving the move has been the Congressional G.O.P. Bush was told that if he pushed a straight continuation of the Surge strategy after this fall, he would lose most of the Congressional G.O.P. One senior Republican Congressional figure is said to have told him that the G.O.P. would be "committing suicide" if it went into the 2008 elections with the Iraq War as the lead issue and no draw-down in sight. Bush has been assured that he can hold the G.O.P. in Congress together with an extended, slow paced draw-down.
Military honchos say it ain't working in most of the country:
Military leaders remain optimistic about their ability to score in the Sunni areas, but they don’t really see tactics which would make much difference in Baghdad and other Shiia areas. They have argued that there would be no benefit from a further ramp-up of forces.
Even a coup d'etat won't do the trick, though not for lack of effort on the part of the Prez:
Continued erosion of the political position in Iraq. Instead of consolidating its position with the greater stability afforded with an increased troop presence, the al-Maliki Government has actually disintegrated steadily on a week-on-week basis. Sunnis have left the Government. And even within the Shiia population, a curiously centrifugal process has been underway for some time. Each of the three major Shiia powerbrokers has lost influence over the last two months. Instead, there has been a steady move to support local, more precisely, tribal leaders. This makes the political position even more amorphous and difficult to manage than it was before. Bush apparently weighed a coup d’état several times which would have installed a more "manageable" leader in Baghdad. His analysts concluded that such a step would produce a more predictable downside than an upside, so it seems to have been rejected.
And anyhow, Bob and Condi say it's okay, George. Draw 'em down:
Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates have been given a go-ahead to begin preparations for a major draw down. The objective will be to dramatically reduce the 150,000 U.S. civilians in Iraq by the time the 2008 elections roll around. There will be a similar, but far slower draw-down of uniformed forces
We got 'em right wear we want 'em, Dick! Just take it slowly. 2008, time to strategeate!
Read the whole thing folks. The pitcher is preparing to throw his change.
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