[Disclaimer: personally I find it annoying when people speak about groups as if they are monoliths (i.e. the "jewish vote" or the "black vote.") But obviously socioeconomic realities influece voting patterns, and we use shorthand language to address those patterns. Please take this post in that spirit.]
In my work (public health) I deal frequently with the problem of assessing various ethnic groups' overall response to public policy and health interventions.
I feel that as a whole the Democratic party is doing a fairly ineffective job of addressing the concerns of minority voters, even though on the whole minority voters remain among the strongest supporters of the party. I think part of the difficulty is a lack of understanding of cultural trends among different groups, and another part is the obvious reality that the economically disadvantaged are underserved as a whole, and the poor skew more strongly minority than do the middle and upper classes.
But today I noticed something interesting. Ed Gordon of Black Press USA and BET was on the Chris Matthews show today and made an observation - that in heartland states (he specifically referenced his conversations with voters in Michigan) gay marriage is just not going to be a big issue in November, and wouldn't really constitute a strong "wedge" issue for Bush to exploit to his advantage.
From where I sit (as a member of a relatively conservative (white Irish) Catholic family centered in rural NY - many of whom always vote Republican, but aren't going to this time) it seemed like a pretty astute comment. In the heartland, it seems to me, the salient voter issues are the economy, the war and civil liberties. "Family values" - Janet Jackson's figure notwithstanding - are running a distant fourth.
Gordon did not specifically address the question of whether the gay marriage issue would be a more salient wedge for black American voters, but I think it's reasonable to assume for that if his reportage suggested that it would be, he would have mentioned it.
My understanding is limited, but research has suggested that blacks and hispanics who do vote Democrat tend to lean more to the right than do their white counterparts on issues involving homosexuality, and generally approach social issues from a point of view somewhat more motivated by religious faith (for instance, black Democratic voters' relatively strong support for alternative education programs (e.g. "vouchers") that would allow public funds to be redirected toward religious schools is probably due in large part to economic patterns but also somewhat to strong support for religious programs in general.)
That Gordon didn't mention a possible anti-Democrat backlash on the gay marriage issue among socially conservative minority voters therefore surprised me.
Am I misunderstanding the state of the art in terms of voting patterns?
Is it just that the other issues swamp whatever disproportionate influence this issue would have on the minority vote?
Or is Gordon's (presumed) assessment correct: that it's just not that big a deal to most people?
Or will it be a salient wedge after all?