Accept Petraeus' Framing

In today's testimony, Gen. Petraeus framed the status of U.S. military involvement in Iraq as follows: We are doing well enough militarily that we can begin now to draw down 30,000 troops by July of 2008.

We should accept that framing.

That is not to say that we should explicitly agree with or endorse all of what Petraeus is saying.  We should not.  What is important, though, is that we accept the second half of Petraeus' framing: That we can now begin to draw down forces.  There is no need to get up into the General's or wingnutters' faces at this time to try to shout them down that things are not going well in Iraq.  The likely response to that is, "Oh, yeah?  Then we need to keep force levels up or even increase them until we are sure that things are going well."

Consider these two questions from the latest CBS/NYT poll:

83. As you may know, a report about the situation in Iraq by General David Petraeus, the Commander of U.S. forces, and others is scheduled to be released next week. If the report says that the situation in Iraq is IMPROVING, what should the U.S. do next: should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, decrease the number of troops in Iraq, or remove all its troops from Iraq? QUESTIONS 83-84 WERE ROTATED.

9/4-8/07

Increase 6%
Keep the same 32%
Decrease 39%
Remove all troops 17%
DK/NA 6%

84. If the report says that the situation in Iraq is GETTING WORSE, what should the U.S. do next: should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, decrease the number of troops in Iraq, or remove all its troops from Iraq? QUESTIONS 83-84 WERE ROTATED.

9/4-8/07

Increase 16%
Keep the same 27%
Decrease 25%
Remove all troops 22%
DK/NA 9%

Please note that if people think the situation in Iraq is getting worse instead of better, then more people think troop levels should increase, fewer people think some or all of the troops should be removed, and more people think that troop levels should stay the same or increase.

Fighting against the notion that things are getting better is counter-productive to the goal of getting U.S. troops out of Iraq at this time.

Petraeus and his supporters are currently engaged in a bit of declaring victory and bringing the troops home.  Let them.  They are beginning to bring the troops home.  Instead of insisting that the victory claims are bogus, we should concentrate on solidifying the notion that troop levels have peaked, that they are on a downward trend, that we are ratcheting down our force levels in Iraq, etc.  The goal is to fix the idea in the conventional wisdom that we are drawing down and will continue to draw down forces, and that we will not again increase troop levels in the foreseeable future.

There is no need to fight against Petraeus and his supporters until next July.  

If they want to continue to declare victory and continue to bring the troops home after July, let them.  They would be bringing the troops home.  

If they want to retain or increase troops after July, that is when we need to be prepared to fight them.  The only way they can make their case at that time is to declare that things were going well, but that they aren't any longer, so we cannot bring any more troops home.  That is when we need to make the argument that, no, things weren't going well previously; your previous numbers and claims were bogus, and here is exactly why...; not only that, but things are continuing to go badly, cannot be improved with a lower force level than was previously ineffective, and we are not going to increase troop levels; so we must continue to bring the troops home.

In short, don't fight their framing while it is achieving our goal of bringing the troops home; don't endorse the part of their framing that we don't agree with (that things are going well in Iraq); do endorse the part of their framing that we do agree with (that it is time to start bringing the troops home), but seek to shape that part to support our further goals (that the draw down will continue, that it is inevitable, that troop levels will only ratchet down, never increase, etc.); and be ready to destroy their frame and strongly assert our own when their framing is no longer useful (probably next July.)

•  You think they are "framing" in good faith?

  The troops that are "brought home" will not be any except those due to rotate. And before they know it they will be going right back over there.

  Next July they will be using a different "frame". I suppose we should accept that too?

  by Enjoy Every Sandwich on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:14:00 PM PDT

  •  Doesn't matter

    Good faith or bad faith, correct premise or incorrect premise, same frame or new frame, it doesn't matter as long as the troops continue to come home.  Over the long term, historians will determine whether Bush and Petraeus were correct -- and I'm quite certain that judgment will go against Bush and his General.  In the short term, what matters is getting the troops home.  If we don't have to fight them to achieve that end, then don't fight.  Especially not while the fight can be counter-productive.

    by Foodle on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:40:30 PM PDT

  •  Frame: "Bring the boys Home"

    It the only one they can sell now.

    Nobody's is buying their crap. The only story is "It's over".  Nobody cares what they say. Been there, heard that. FU, Bring 'em home.

    GOP will try to call it a victory. Or not. Hold on till Jan09; just means more Dems elected.

    GOP has to declare victory and get the F out. If GOP wants to to elected anywhere, they better not get in the way.

    The avalanche out will be televised just like the "mushroom cloud" stampede in. Again we will see flags flying, tanks rolling, but with parades full of smiling GIs and families.  Whatever happens in Iraq won't be covered on Fox News.  

    by odenthal on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 03:08:45 PM PDT

    •  Well, no.

      Hold on till Jan09; just means more Dems elected.

      Holding on until Jan 09 also means more dead troops.  If, come July, they want to try to hold on for another Friedman Unit, then we need to fight them.

      by Foodle on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 03:26:02 PM PDT

•  Now...

  ...if we could just find a way to inveigle larger
  numbers of troops than the General is saying, say,
  next month...

  by JeffW on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:15:29 PM PDT

•  Frankly...

  I can't wait until until July and doubt the families of our soldiers can either! It's time to bring them home and the time is now, not in July. They just want to kick the can further down the road and throw this whole mess on the Dems in 2009.

  by reflectionsv37 on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:16:26 PM PDT

  •  Frankly...

    Getting more than 30,000 troops home before July will be hard regardless of how fast we want to bring them home.  That draw down pace is roughly the same as the pace at which they were surged into Iraq.

    by Foodle on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:42:41 PM PDT

•  Just another 1.5 Friedman Units

  I'm sure once July comes around the Administration and its mouthpieces will say, "Time to start withdrawing!"

  by Elwood Dowd on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:19:28 PM PDT

  •  Huh?

    By the time July comes around, we already will have withdrawn 30,000 troops if Petraeus' recommendation is followed.

    by Foodle on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:43:57 PM PDT

    •  That's not what you said:

      ...we can begin to draw down 30,000 troops by July of 2008.

      Begin by July.

      by Elwood Dowd on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:46:38 PM PDT

      •  Huh?

        Draw down 30,000 troops by July; not begin in July.

        by Foodle on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 03:06:31 PM PDT

        •  Clarified it n/t

          by Foodle on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 03:28:04 PM PDT

•  what they want

  is an endless occupation with more wars. What you will get if you except this frame is more of the same with endless war.

  by shaharazade on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:21:30 PM PDT

  •  That is not what Petraeus said today

    Petraeus' recommendation is that we begin to withdraw 30,000 troops by next July.  I see no reason to fight that recommendation.  If they want to stop withdrawing or increase troop levels in July, then we need to be ready to fight.  Hard.

    by Foodle on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:46:12 PM PDT

  •  No siree. It's over

    Surge is working, Bring the boys home. One province at a time.  Anbar is secure; fine; we're outahere.

    General P has set us free.

    Keep agreeing with the bastards. Keep putting words in their mouths. Thank god George "war president" Bush has finally suceeded; now he can bring the boys home.  

    Heckuva surge David. Now lets move out, flags waving.

    GOP deadenders drag it out to 11/08 election.  The craven ones will jump on any good news that lets the boys come home.  Won't be completely over till we get a Dem in as president. 01/09

    Don't fight it. Let it go.  Let them congratulate themselves.  The only "date certain": 11/08    

    by odenthal on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:55:20 PM PDT

•  It's the way out.

  Pat the GOP on the back and amplify GeneralP "start to bring the troops home" mantra.  Whatever they want to hear just keep agreeing, smiling and thank them that we can finally "Bring the Boys Home"

  GOP gets a way to save face. Who cares as long as Bush's war is over. Victory parades guaranteed by 11/08.

  Stand down as they standup. Blah blah blah. So they fall over as soon we leave. Leave the Iraquis the freedom to self-extermination.  Let the Chinese and Indians fight over the god damn oil.

  by odenthal on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 02:44:03 PM PDT

•  this is crazy logic!

  they are not framing a withdrawl they are preparing us for an endless occupation. Acceptance of this as a way out is delusional.

  by shaharazade on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 03:02:07 PM PDT

  •  Even if you are right

    ...about their strategic intent, it is crazy logic to fight them while they are recommending that we withdraw 30,000 troops.

    If they want to stop withdrawing troops in July, then it will be crazy not to fight them.

    by Foodle on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 03:11:26 PM PDT

  •  McCain can't get a vote

    McCain is the only GOP candidate riding the Surge.  Rest are posturing and chest thumping. None will be able to stand in the way of withdrawl.  

    They have framed an endless occupation; but they are not talking Stay the course anymore. It's 30K out by July.  They have opened the door a crack. another 30K by August. Most out by 11/08.

    They think they can let off a little presuure with a little talk about draw down. But the door is open.  Every GOP who wants to keep its job is going to want to get in front of this.

    Truth is Americans don't care a flying F about Iraq. If we can blame the ensuing chaos on Arab native cut-throat barbarism, so be it. Just keep the oil comming.

    As long as we keep agreeing with their rosy assessments; even more troops can come out.

    Pat them on the back and ask when we can bring the second 30K back?

    by odenthal on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 03:21:53 PM PDT

    •  Do you read polls?

      Nobody likes this war  oil or not! Why do you believe their bullshit they will work this into a shooting war with Iraq and the escalation will continue with the illusion of taking out the troops. These are only more FU's brought to you by Bush co and swallowed by only the deluded.

      by shaharazade on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 03:46:47 PM PDT

      •  Deluded

        If they're right, the troops come home
        If they're wrong, the troops come home.
        It doesn't matter. The GOP has had enough.
        W is done. The war president's war is winding down.

        The neocon dead-enders will drag it out, only to add more dems to Congress. The White House isn't going to GulianiTime, WhiteShirtMitt or SurgeMcCain.  The GOP took out a Contract on America.  

        by odenthal on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 09:51:39 PM PDT

•  Satus Quo Ante

  Petraeus is saying nothing more than: we can roll back the extra surge troops and take our troop levels back to early 2007. (And we already know that we have to roll back the surge because we are out of troops, even with the current extraordinary redeployment schedules.)

  If you liked the Iraq War as of February 2007, you should be happy with Petraeus' recommendations.

  by Elwood Dowd on Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 03:37:03 PM PDT