The "I Told You So" Prediction Diary
Thu Sep 27, 2007 at 03:38:47 PM PDT
I would like to put forward my predictions for the next 13 months, and hope others join in with theirs. I do so for 2 reasons, one practical, and one quite vain.
The practical reason is that I'd like some empirical evidence on who knows what they are talking about around this blog, and who is FOS. Now of course, even the smartest person can be dead wrong on a prediction, and being right on one, or even a few, is not proof of intelligence, but it in general, over time, and over many instances, being right now will tend to show who will be right in the future. With this, I'm taking the long view: We will have to strategize for elections in 2010, 2012, and so on, and so on. The vain reason is quite obvious: I'd like to tell some verbose users on here that they don't know what they are talking about, and have some proof
I wish we could put our predictions in an envelope and seal them in a vault until Wednesday, November 5, 2008, but that would take tons of coordination, effort, and not to mention, money. A diary is much more practical, except that our predictions will be out in the public now. The potential of a shit-storm is high, as is potential embarrassment. But nontheless, here goes. I encourage others to post their predictions on the nominees, VPs, presidential electorial score, the makeup of the House and Senate, and any other stuff you'd lke to throw in. Then next November, we can open up this diary, time-stamped and dated, and see who has some prognostication savvy, or at least, just got lucky.
So here they are, my best predictions on the Elections of 2008, not as I wish they would happen, but made as if my life depended on them being right.
- Hillary wins the nomination, and chooses Bill Richardson as her veep. Her strategists pick him to solidify gains in the Hispanic vote, and see a possible opening for Dems in the Mountain West states. Al Gore does not enter the race. Biden, Dodd, Richardson, & Gravel drop out in late January. Edwards drops out in late February. Obama and Kucinich stay in the race to the end. There is a mild uproar when Obama is not picked as VP.
- Giuliani wins the R nomination and chooses as his VP a midwestern Representative with conservative (but not too much) credentials, and a long resume of Washington-insidership. Look for John Boehner or someone similar.
- Giuliani/Boehner beat Clinton/Richardson 300-238 with Wisconsin and New Hampshire switching to red from the 2004 election. All other states vote the way they did in 04. A landslide is narrowly averted as Michigan and Pennsylvania are slight victories (less than .05%) for Clinton/Richardson. Hillary holds on vs fellow New Yorker Giuliani 51-49 in NY.
- Senate makeup D - 53 (including Lieberman) R - 47. House makeup D - 238 R - 197. Dems expect to pick up many more, and are surprised on election day.
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So there are my predictions. In case any HRC supporters think I am an Edwards or Obama supporter, my Dem nominee preferences are (in order 1. Clark 2. Feingold 3. Gore). Since my state is way down the primary list, I don't think I'll have a choice, so I'll just support whoever the D nominee is come November.
My wife and I worked our butts off for the Democratic Party in 2004, again in 2006, and plan to do so again in 2008 and into the future. But as someone who lived 8 years under Rudy in NYC, and now live in rural Indiana, I am astounded at how lightly people take him on this blog and elsewhere we discuss politics. He is viewed as a hero to people out here. We may know that its BS, but "the people" don't. And anyway, they elected a drunk, coke-using draft dodger in GWB, Rudy looks like a saint compared to him.
Sorry these predictions are such a downer, but that's how I see it, as of Sept 27, 2007.
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