The bets are on Obama
In addition to the latest polls showing a significant uptick for Obama, the bookies are putting their money on him too! The links are below.
I've said this before and will say it again. There are alot of wild cards in Obama's favor and this time I've added some new ones.
WILDCARD 1: Youth Vote - Much has been said about Obama's appeal to young people as well as their unreliability as voters. I tend to believe that the Obama campaign may have tried to learn a few lessons from Dean's failure to bring out that vote in 2004 and have tweaked their strategies so as not to repeat the same level of disappointment. Even a marginal or mediocre improvement compared with 2004 favors Obama.
WILDCARD 2: Independents/Republicans - Much has also been said about Obama's appeal to independents and Republicans. Assuming even a modest increase in the percentage of them attending the Dem caucauses this thursday, that helps Obama. It's not difficult at all for them. They just need to enter their local Dem precinct and fill out a short form.
WILDCARD 3: 2nd Choicers (Sub-15%ers) - I've seen polls showing Hillary way behind with this group. My hunch is that John Edwards & Obama will be fighting for this group and I haven't seen any consistent polling or anecdotal evidence of which one they are breaking for. Obama has atleast an equal chance of garnering this vote.
WILDCARD 4: - This election has been about CHANGE. When Dean ran in 2004, and subsequently Kerry for the general election, there was no real emphasis on CHANGE as an overarching theme. Those were clearly themes we saw during the primaries and/or general elections of '76 (Carter), '80 (Reagan), '92 (Clinton), '00 (Bush). If that CHANGE theme is being promoted by a charismatic figure that CHANGE message becomes even more compelling. If the polls weren't in favor of the change agent all along than often times the polls break in his/her favor in the last few days...usually with the undecideds.
WILDCARD 5: - PC EFFECT - I'm actually surprised that no one has brought this up yet. This is certainly nothing that the Obama campaign has any controll over. What has often worked against black candidates in the private voting booth may actually work in Obama's favor since Iowans have to publicly pledge for their candidate, I suspect there will be a percentage of white Iowans that will feel compelled (just because of the PC culture that has been created over the decades) to publicly pledge for a black man since there is no private polling booth to register what they may really feel.
WILDCARD 6: - Great Organization - He is a former community organizer and apparently Obama had built a great reputation in Illinois for having a great ground game. The Obama campaign is well organized and well funded and has been holding successful mock caucuses.
WILDCARD 7: - Chance to Make History - This one is just the opposite of the PC Effect and has been mentioned several times in the media. There are a large number of whites that are eager to throw their support for a viable black candidate for president. In 1996 there was the same kind of enthusiasm for General Colin Powell. Iowa is just the kind of Midwestern state full of very nice, fair, respectfull and well-meaning folks that would do it.
WILDCARD 8: - Large Crowds - It's undeniable that Obama has had the largest crowds during the Iowa campaign...usualy 2-3 x larger than Edwards and Clinton. I see it every day on C-SPAN and in media estimates. These crowds make it out in the snow and the cold to see Obama. In 2004 large crowds for Kerry were an indicator that he was going to win Iowa. Dean at that point was having smaller and smaller crowds.
Betting on Obama - see below.
http://www.intrade.com/...http://www.betfair.com/...