Tomorrow, a relatively small percentage of the population in a relatively small state will make a relatively huge decision that will impact the presidential race in profound ways. Together, Iowa and New Hampshire literally have the power to shape this country’s future.
In this age of infotainment it has become impossible for underdogs in this race to grab the attention of the country. Celebrity status due to the media’s obsession with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has overshadowed more experienced candidates like Joe Biden. Throughout the entire presidential race, Joe Biden has never polled more than 5% nationally. Hillary, on the other hand, has never polled below the high 20’s. It’s pretty sad, when you think about it, that most Americans don’t even know the name of the most experienced candidate in the race. It’s pretty sad, that in the birthplace of democracy people are either too busy to care, or too locked into what the TV set tells them to consider alternatives to the media’s darling "rock stars."
It’s sad but it’s possible to overcome. There is a parallel story in this race that no one seems to be talking about. Consider the campaign of John Edwards in 2004 and these national polls...
October, 2003
13% Wesley Clark
12% Howard Dean
11% Joe Lieberman
10% John Kerry
9% Dick Gephardt
3% John Edwards
Now take a look at a 2007 poll from October...
49% Hillary Clinton
26% Barack Obama
12% John Edwards
3% Joe Biden
The dynamics of the race were very different in 2003, but what remains the same is that Edwards and Biden were both far back behind the pack months before the caucus. Now take a look at these national polls taken within the closing days, just before the caucus and note the similarities between Edwards of 2004 and Biden of today.
January 8th, 2004
20% Howard Dean
13% Wesley Clark
8% Joe Lieberman
7% Dick Gephardt
7% John Kerry
4% Carol Moseley Braun
4% John Edwards
December 17th, 2007
45% Hillary Clinton
23% Barack Obama
13% John Edwards
4% Joe Biden
Heading into the Iowa caucus in the last primary election, John Edwards barely made a dent in national polls. He raised only $1.9 million in the fourth quarter while national frontrunners Dean and Clark raised $15.9 million and $10.3 million respectively. Despite the lack of money, media coverage, and polling success, Edwards’ Iowa surprise catapulted him past Gephardt, Lieberman, Dean, and Clark. He ended up winning 534 delegates in the primaries, compared to Dean’s 170 and Clark’s 57.
What does this all this mean? Well, Joe Biden finds himself in exactly the same boat as Edwards did in ’04. Biden does not have the money to compete much anywhere outside of Iowa and New Hampshire. He is rarely taken seriously by the mainstream media because of their obsession with several candidates and the polling numbers that result from that obsession. Everyone seems to have written him off, except Iowans. They don’t like to be told what to think by the media and they have a history of surprises. Edwards polled 4% nationally in 2004 but raked in 32% of delegates in Iowa. It was a shock that surged his momentum and landed him in second place by the end of the primaries.
I am not naïve. I do not expect Joe Biden to pull off 32% in Iowa. Hell, he may not even top 10%. He may not even top 5%. So don’t misread this diary as a prediction that the good Senator is going to shock the world with an amazing improbable result. All I know is that Joe Biden is packing every venue he goes to in Iowa right now. He is drawing crowds in the hundreds and two hundreds and three hundreds where he used to speak to small groups of 20 people or less. Other campaigns are sensing strong pockets of support for him in areas that complex caucus rules make very important to the final result. I’m not sure of the exact numbers but Biden has been endorsed by more House members in the state than any other candidate, including the Majority Leader and Assistant Majority Leader. The ingredients are there for a surprise, not a 32% surprise, but a surprise nonetheless.
If one of the big three slips and Biden manages to pull off a 15% strong fourth or even third place finish, he will be the talk of the media and he will be lifted nationally and in New Hampshire. If he surprises in New Hampshire, which has traditionally been a very open minded and independent state, he could be seen as the "comeback kid" and as a new viable alternative to Hillary Clinton.
Most will read this diary and say "Yah, it could happen, but even if he does surprise in Iowa and New Hampshire, Joe Biden will never have the organization to compete with Hillary and Barack outside of the first couple states, he has no chance." To you I would reply that organization is the most overrated quality in a campaign for president. Did anyone seriously believe that John Edwards was going to have the money to compete with Howard Dean outside of Iowa in 2004? For every $100 that Edwards raised in the fourth quarter, Dean raised $840 but Edwards still dominated him all over the country.
It may just be me but when it’s crunch time and democratic primary voters are picking a leader, I don’t believe the questions they are asking themselves are, "Who has the best campaign organization?" We are all smarter than that. There are only a couple questions they are going to ask themselves, "Who is the best leader to take this country into the future? Who has the spine and the strength to repair the damage of the Bush years and restore our nation? Who has the experience to build bridges across nations and protect our children? Who is going to unite the parties to rebuild the middle class?" Those are the questions they will ask in Iowa and it’s because of this that I’m holding out for a Biden surprise. Senator Biden has served his nation since he was in his 20’s. No one questions his experience. He’s a straight shooter, and with the right running mate I think he’s an easy winner in the general election because the country hasn’t had a chance to get to know him yet.
So if you are an Iowan I beg you to vote your conscience. If you have refused to take a good look at Joe Biden because you don’t think he can win the primary, I urge you to look again with the lessons of 2004 in mind. If you are caucusing for Hillary or Obama or Edwards because you truly believe they are the best this party has to offer, then I commend you. This primary isn’t about choosing a candidate based on who can win the primary. It’s about choosing the person who will be the best president.