As a frequent Obama voter and all around big time fan, it was with great sorrow today that I saw Markos' prediction that he would win Iowa. Indeed, I was getting excited, looking at the polls, watching the kids out there with their chants and slogans, mobilizing the neighborhoods to cast their vote for the man with the plan (i.e. Obama). But we all know the statistics: Some 97% of candidates projected to win by the management and editors of Daily Kos come up short when the votes are in, often embarrassingly so.
We can take some solace in the fact that the readership is overwhelmingly for another guy. This puts the front page prediction at odds with the readership's preference, where in the past they have virtually uniformly agreed. It could be that the jinx is really on dKos crowd favorites rather than the management and that the usual trend should be interpreted instead as a guarantee of an Edwards failure.
Upon sober reflection, though, the most plausible projection to make based on past performance of the editors and the preference of the dKos "rank and file" in predicting winners is that both are probably wrong and in fact Hillary will win. This is a damn shame, because she is my least favorite of the top three (though I'm sure she would make a fine president).
For this reason, I hope all involved in the Obama "ground game" in Iowa will redouble their efforts so as to defy this grave omen. We hardly need another slick, Southern white guy or a slick, Southern white guy's wife. We need change... Change we can believe in, etc.
[Update! It has come to my attention that some of the folksier readers out there found my description of one of the candidates to be somehow wanting in consideration of our Southern brethren. I apologize for my characterization of the Romney of this race. He isn't all that slick, as we've found out, and the word "white" hardly does justice to his devilishly handsome complexion.]