NOTE: I posted this diary last month, and I decided to re-post this entry due to the frenzy of tonight.
This is for those that can't stop paying attention to those hectic polls everyone has been showing off.
Because of this hype. I decided to cater this diary entry about my prediction on how the Iowa caucus will turn out.
So, without further a due, here is my prediction with analysis.
IOWA CAUCUS PREDICTION WITH 15% THRESHOLD:
Edwards - 35%
Obama - 30%
Clinton - 20%
Biden - 15%
Dodd - 0%
Richardson - 0%
Kucinich - 0%
Gravel - 0%
IOWA CAUCUS PREDICTION WITHOUT 15% THRESHOLD:
Edwards - 26%
Obama - 23%
Clinton - 19%
Biden - 14%
Dodd - 7%
Richardson - 6%
Kucinich - 6%
Gravel - 0%
Edwards: Out of all the candidates, Edwards has the best appeal for the caucus. He is very persuasive and concrete to every person, and most notably, knows what he is talking about about every issue. Plus, his "outsider" approach makes him appealable to every group you can imagine.
Obama: What makes Obama still a contender behind Edwards are both his desire to change, and his outstanding field team giving him the credit he deserves out to the state. Frankly, he does have that flare that makes me convinced that I could vote for him. But, he lacks real depth to some of this issues, and when asked questions on vital issues during debates, he sometimes pauses and studders a lot for his responses. This is something that will cost him some independent/undecided caucus goers.
Clinton: Because she's Clinton. Some may like her due to her warming and one-on-one personality, while others see her as being "too connected" and not being trustworthy of was she saids' i.e. the Spitzer license question. To her credit, however, she was put in some money for her field program, and has increasingly hired additional staff members. Unfortunately, it won't be a high enough turn-out for her.
Biden: This is the only second-tier candidate that stands out, and has a shot of breaking into the top three. He is confident, knowledgable, humoress, and passionate about politics. In addition, his Iraq plan shows to people that he knows about this conflict more than any other candidate. These factors make it very easy for people to caucus for him.
Dodd: You got to give it to him. This guy really wants to become your next leader. He has spread his message from all over the Iowa and country about how he has the most progessive issues and background out there. His endoresment from the IAFF will pull in some people. But, what troubles me is his stance on young voters caucusing, his second-rate field crew, and, above all, he is NOT presidential at all. Despite being low in the polls, Dodd keeps saying that Kerry was also in the 8% area before the caucus. But, that information was based on the CBS News national poll. The Iowa polls for 2003 and 2004 showed Kerry locked in third place, compared to polls this year where Dodd is still in the bottom three. With the high popularity of the top three candidates, this will be a disappointment, not only for Dodd, but for his entire campaign.
Richardson: He has some momentum going for him, due to the commercials and publicity. But, face it, this guy cannot be president. He is not a very confident speaker and always stumbles when he speaks. Not only that, but he always saids stupid things; i.e. the God making Iowa number one and the lack of knowledge of the Iraq vote in June. He will pull out some people, but not a whole lot like originally planned.
Kucinich: Bless him for what he's done. There will be little fanbase, more than before, but not enough to get the win. That is when people will be sprinting to their second choices-this is how Kerry got the win in the previous caucus.
Gravel: Enough said.
Like I stated, theis are just my prediction. Don't use these as actual betting odds for your pool, unless you really want to. I will even put this up again the day before the caucus for kicks.