There will be a ton of analysis before this is all over. I'm a campaign veteran so that qualifies me. Call it self qualification. I'm just going to call it as I see it and maybe post this before I go to bed, maybe not.
First, if turnout does indeed hit 200,000 (or anywhere close) We All Win. No matter who you support, that is good news for the Democratic Party. Turnout was 120,000 just four years ago in a tight contest. Caucus attendees are the pool that become the volunteers. Volunteers for leg campaigns, Congressional campaigns, etc. Follow on the flip pls
A common thread running through this campaign season (however long it is) is the Dem field is a quality field. People really are torn amongst candidates. We really have a number to choose from and any of the top finishers in Iowa can go on and win. I can't emphasize enough, as much as I find myself disagreeing with Markos lately for shooting from the hip, I totally agree with him that Democrats are in a strong position and we can win both the WH, the Senate, keep the House and on down the ticket. This has all the potential of a great year.
My only prediction for the Republican side is they are headed for a train wreck. The quality in the field is low, their ability to think on their feet almost non-existent and their staffs all in reactive mode (and it's only January). Watch the debacle unfolding. The 11th commandment to speak no ill of a fellow Republican is going to be replaced by the 12th. Seize every opportunity to attack and attack. We're talking a circular firing squad like they've never seen. It's important the Democrats learn from this and not follow the Repubs.
The campaign season is too long. The general voting public is not tuned in but the common response is it's too long. Unless. ULnless the campaigns are in your state and then interest goes up. Iowa being one example. NH turnout could be good as well.
In the final analysis, there's a notable difference in Iowa this year. Kerry had 120 field staff in Iowa and Dean and tons of volunteers but the top three have almost 1,000 field staff in Iowa. This is menaingful. It means field is important and personal, voter to voter contact really makes a difference.
At this point with 40% of the vote in, it's virtually tied but the clear winner is Obwards. as in Change. Change won and 'experience' did not. There seems to be another winner and again it's the Democratic party. Youth appears to have turned out in the Democratic caucus. The youth vote went to the Dems in '04, increased in '06 and could be a deciding factor..that's right, deciding factor in '08 and that is critical. It means they will most likely vote Democratic for the rest of their lives. That's been proven time and again (vote 3 times and it becomes a life pattern). This is very exciting. It's wonderful, it's a real cause for celebration.
OK, I'm going to post this with 56% in and Obama opening a slight (slight) lead..if he wins by 5% or more it will be a pretty big win and if Hillary finishes third, it definitely damages her chances. Could be quite a development.
Do I have to say that Huckabee winning is simply a gift that will keep on giving? Romney's money and organization amounted to nothing. The Huckster has next to no staff, got free media, turned out the social conservative right wing and won. He has no legs, and it doesn't matter, his views on te record are way past Mars.
Well, that's my take, what's yours?