On Thursday, the worst-case scenario came true for the Clinton campaign.
- She was beaten by Obama in almost every demographic grouping:
It isn’t just that Barack Obama won Iowa decisively last night over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. It’s the way he won: by beating his opponents across a stunning demographic spectrum.
Obama won Democrats, Republicans and independents; men and women; and virtually every income bracket. People most worried about the Iraq war gave him their vote. So did voters most concerned about the state of the economy. And those whose top priority is fixing the nation’s health care system.
- An unprecedented number of independents and republicans turned out, mitigating her strength among core democrats and buttressing Obama's claim that he is the best candidate to forge a winning coalition in November.
- Clinton finished third in a contest that wasn't even close. In actual numbers, her support placed merely a half-percentage point behind Edwards, but that third-place finish is likely the biggest psychological blow to her campaign.
So, what happens next?
The New Hampshire primary is five days away. Obama's huge win means independents will likely bolster him again in that state. (McCain, lacking a caucus surge, has been shut out of the post-election coverage.) If Obama survives Saturday's debate without a gaffe, then the nomination is likely his:
If Obama rides a wave and Senator Clinton loses NH, the unions in Nevada will likely throw their considerable support behind Obama. Then the campaign moves to a South Carolina, where Obama's natural base is sure to deliver the state to the first nationally viable black candidate.
The Clintons are old hands at this. They know that if Hillary loses New Hampshire, she will likely go 0-4 in the first four contests and face calls to concede the race. They can't cede New Hampshire to Obama, or it's over. They have to win now, and they've shown their ability to make that happen even if it comes dirty or ugly.
How do they turn the race around in five days and beyond?
- They could go fully negative (as if they haven't already done so under the radar), in the hopes that either Obama loses or the results are a wash. Clinton and Edwards may find common cause in the next debate to attack Obama (though the Edwards people have seemed more eager in the past 12 hours to kill off Hillary).
But I don't think that strategy will work. The Huckabee win is instructive here; 11th-hour attacks by Clinton will likely be seen as desperate, and they're more likely to turn more people against her than Obama.
They could pull out their greatest hits of under-the-radar attacks -- muslim heritage, cocaine, etc. -- but those are less likely to sway the New Hampshire electorate, which eschews over religiosity in its politicians and gave new life to Bill Clinton after his "I didn't inhale" flap.
- They could garner a series of high-profile endorsements. I'm not just talking about Dodd, Biden, et al, but also Teddy Kennedy, who is wildly popular in NH.
- There's always the possibility of some game-changer, some external event on the scale of (or bigger than) the Bhutto assassination. Something that momentarily scrambles the race and gives her a seam, an opening with which to shift the narrative back in favor of her core strengths.
What do you think? Is an Obama win in NH inevitable, and is Hillary toast? Is the race soon to be a two-person one between Edwards and Obama? What will the Clintons do to remain alive in the race?